Author: wchao37

Plausible Outcomes of the Coming Trade Talks   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2019-3-5 20:42:24 |Display all floors
wchao37,

"That's not negotiation. That is dictation."  That's the heart of the matter.  


The US caused all this global mess. It started its global financialization wave which primacizes leveraging as wealth builder, thereby herding its labor from manufacturing into financial leverage services so that its remaining manufacturing labor is not retooled to do other things when that change is all the more needed for advanced economies.


Then Trump entered the picture and made it his clarion call to demonize China as the cause of this the US' own dereliction. Sycophants seeing their own personal opportunity for national glory next clamored around him to egg him on when all of the best economics and past history of the US have shown trade tariffs cause only harm, not just to the global trade markets and supply chains but also directly onto US manufacturers who need to intake semifinished imported parts, and also onto the larger portion of US consumers who have all these years been finding household relief by buying China goods which also keep their inflation at bay and mollifies them from thinking too much about their disparity from their own rich US elites.  


Some may now say the US economy is thriving and employment is maxing which means wages are rising but those observations must not be conflated with Trump's tariff-man actions. Who can believe those observations are not because the US economy was flipped by his one-time tax reduction whose effects are however now attenuating as is inevitable, especially when a large part of it was only used by the benefitting US corporations to buy back their shares without investing in the retooling of their workers which was the original imperative in the first place? Furthermore, those tail-end feel-good effects remain internal to the US and therefore can only be short-termish from global and future viewpoints since full employment means there won't be enough new labor to sustain growth momentum of US products for the global markets what more at prices now too high for importing countries because they can also raise counter tariffs on the US for every tariff the US raises onto them.

Therefore, the US manufacturers have to continue to depend on overseas supply chains to sustain the US economy, for erecting tariffs will only attract reaction while increasing the cost of goods needed by US plants, builders and consumers besides denuding the service staff of importing US companies.


If US concerns divert their operations to other countries, which be they that must also fulfill the market needs for best-infrastructure-supported speeds-to-delivery and in accordance with preset-quality standards grown over years from training of locals?  India is belaboring its bureaucracy, Vietnam has poor infrastructure, the countries of SEAsia have neither the scale, size nor committable resources including raw materials sourcing to make the edge of meeting those market needs while Japan and South Korea have already suffered Trump's trade sabre-rattling, and Eastern Europe remains supplier to Russia and the EU whose Germany is meanwhile chewing its fingernails each time it hears any rumbling of auto tariffs, and Latin America does not have a manufacturing base, and Canada and Mexico have already been made eunuchs of the US White House and thus dependent on the whims and fancies of US domestic interests for that matter political interference. Maybe the Aliens of Mars will be less reticent but with their advanced signal technologies, they have already heard for themselves Cohen's testimony, viewed Daniel's curves, winced at Trump's rants and seen how the US congress is split over GWOA (the great wall of America) now that MAGA is suddenly off the screen.


These conclusions cannot possibly be lost on US manufacturers and investors overseas, many of which having already invested steeply and too seriously in China to be distracted by the facetious caprice of a guy who doesn't read briefs, knows nuts about China's history, manufacturing organization, and international commercial networks but can only say his having bone spurs to spurn military service and to excuse his lack of focus on international economics, for that matter anything except his tweets, foxy news and mar-a-lago golf course.

And yes, for the benefit of one barcoded baldie, the extensiveness of China's IP progress has already been made and presented with legal certitude; if he can't or didn't read those findings to get a lasting enlightenment about himself, his record is not only broken but one may now conclude is also warped. Besides her legal statutes on intellectual property and its enforcement growing by leaps and bounds until even European experts have lauded her progress, China's talents are now in the big league of getting copyrights and patents so that soon enough China will be the main global mover of intellectual property protection as may be seen by how she has achieved so many numero uno's in so short a time. Could it all been because of the wisdom by which she has been administrated all these past years in directly observable memory? Could it also because the US have been using old records to try and shore present claims to sovereign dictatorship of other nations for short term political expediency of seeking the bar of approval of its thirty-percent voters?

Which leaves the matter of snapbacks on tariffs. A moment's thought will tell you it is moronic and if oxygenated further will become oxy-moronic. A snapback on tariffs is a direct threat onto another sovereign nation and absolutely against the grain of any agreement that has already been made to withdraw tariffs erected unilaterally.  After all, it is tantamount to saying the party which enforces the snapback has the absolute right to define when there has been transgression. A case, two cases, three perhaps, qualify for a snapback? Out of how many in the sampling? A million, two million, three, perhaps? A snapback thus is open to abuse of interpretation by the snapbacking party against the grain of any MOU between two agreeing parties.  Lighthizer should know this; isn't he a lawyer by training? Or has his own shadow been overlapped by the craven racism of Navarro and Bannon, or the four P's, namely Pence, Pompeo and their respective two p's? Or even a Marco Rubio and a Derek Scissors? Exactly from where did these toadstools mushroom?

Trump should get his bone spurs treated. It must be excruciating pain for a potus to walk around while trying to dignify his collapsing reputation as a go-getting deal-maker. However any accupuncturist will tell you pain in the heel starts in the head. He should try a brain scan. Alas, one is not too hopeful the MRI computer won't spew out its final diagnosis:

"Does Not Compute".




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Post time 2019-3-6 00:32:42 |Display all floors
markwu Post time: 2019-3-5 20:42
wchao37,

"That's not negotiation. That is dictation."  That's the heart of the matter.  
A snapback thus is open to abuse of interpretation by the snapbacking party against the grain of any MOU between two agreeing parties.  Lighthizer should know this; isn't he a lawyer by training? Or has his own shadow been overlapped by the craven racism of Navarro and Bannon, or the four P's, namely Pence, Pompeo and their respective two p's? Or even a Marco Rubio and a Derek Scissors? Exactly from where did these toadstools mushroom?


I agree.  The only reason Lighthizer was chosen to lead their delegation was due to his previously successful negotiations with the Japanese, not because he was a trained lawyer.

In other words, he was selected by Trump precisely because of his lack of formal training as a seasoned and knowledgeable diplomat.  His approach during negotiations with the Japanese was push, push push.

The only difference this time around is that China is not America's lap dog like Japan was in the 1980s.  

Japan was a defeated foe in WWII subject to the whimsical dictats of the Americans who were using her as a pawn against China in her strategic offshore balancing act.

That's why Japan would have to sign on that Accord in 1987 to appease the Americans by drastically appreciating the yen, while China is not in that category.

I sincerely hope the 'structural changes' currently invoked in the Two Meetings at the Great Hall of the People -- no matter how good they sound theoretically -- have NOTHING to do with the pressure from the American side.  

Few people truly understand the economic implications of "supply side structural changes," or whether the capital-market makeovers are still going to be USD-based on Reminbi-based.

I enjoyed reading Premier Li's Governmental Report and sincerely hope that our nation becomes prosperous based on principles of dignity and sovereignty as laid down by the first-generation revolutionary leaders.

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Post time 2019-3-6 00:37:37 |Display all floors
This post was edited by wchao37 at 2019-3-6 13:36

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Post time 2019-3-6 14:01:44 |Display all floors
Therefore, the US manufacturers have to continue to depend on overseas supply chains to sustain the US economy, for erecting tariffs will only attract reaction while increasing the cost of goods needed by US plants, builders and consumers besides denuding the service staff of importing US companies.


It sure looks like they had not delved into the implications of their raising the tariffs, which by the way is illegal under WTO rules.

I am reading a book called "Principles of Supply Chain Management" by Joel Wisner, co-authored by two Chinese nationals.

It is pretty interesting and is not just logistics.

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Post time 2019-3-6 15:59:12 |Display all floors
wchao37 Post time: 2019-3-6 00:32
I agree.  The only reason Lighthizer was chosen to lead their delegation was due to his previous ...

The bigger structural change is how the US has unilaterally broken the thin ice of international diplomacy by its nefarious action of bullying other nations on the debatable assumption, myth even, that it shall be deemed right all the time on all matters. The more it does that, the less other nations will want to buy its products which was its original objective to reduce trade deficits so WTF was its people not thinking?

What the US has in fact done to China is to break forty years of cooperative win-win consultative working arrangements that form the mutual platform for progressive developments based on an incandescent understanding from sub-surface to high-elevation of the aspirations and constraints of both and it is doing that in order to instigate and replace the platform in toto with a new era of detente.

Furthermore, the US in its unilateral tariff actions and sanctions against the remits of WTO rules is blackmailing other independent nations to toe its line against China when all that China has been doing is to internationally trade on willing buyer-willing seller and domestically invest on joint-partner terms, and those other nations have also been free buddy trade partners with and in a growing China market even if the modes of government are different. Especially now when all can see one mode has been better for her peoples than the other mode.

These observations and conclusions are patently transparent yet this particular US leadership has like drunken monkeys for a moniker bulled onwards like wrecking balls in a china shop in which process freeing the zombies and ghosts of sinophobia embedded in so many of the unreconstructed and ill-informed US congressional denizens. And elsewhere.

Trump has opened his can of home-grown worms.

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Post time 2019-3-6 18:52:52 |Display all floors
wchao37 Post time: 2019-3-6 00:32
I agree.  The only reason Lighthizer was chosen to lead their delegation was due to his previous ...

"I enjoyed reading Premier Li's Governmental Report and sincerely hope that our nation becomes prosperous based on principles of dignity and sovereignty as laid down by the first-generation revolutionary leaders."

What riles is that China's success is being used as an excuse by the US to demonize her. Even Italy's support of her BRI initiative is being challenged by the US whose White House has urged its 'allies' "to press China to bring its global investment efforts into line with accepted international standards and best practices”.

One asks, and from the standpoint of the US, what be these "international standards and best practices" that the US has executed in similar projects in the countries and zones of the BRI. Any so far?

Furthermore, how can the US say the BRI is 'made by and for China' when the infrastructure is being built on sovereign grounds respectively belonging to the rest of the 157 signatories to the initiative?

It's not like the US invading Iraq and corralling its oilfields or deposing a leader to install a puppet in oil-rich Venezuela that would make for a best practice to international standards. More like outright theft in broad daylight. Undoubtedly other examples of US' 'international standards and best practices' will come to mind..in the next episode of the US superpower saga.

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Post time 2019-3-7 12:02:57 |Display all floors
Furthermore, how can the US say the BRI is 'made by and for China' when the infrastructure is being built on sovereign grounds respectively belonging to the rest of the 157 signatories to the initiative?


More and more of the participants in the BRI are realizing that the US has nothing to show for and is just babbling away when it says the BRI is "made by and for China."

People aren't fools and as soon as they get a chance to compare the before-&-after results of their national economies they would all come to the conclusion that China is a positive factor in their own development.

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