Author: wchao37

Plausible Outcomes of the Coming Trade Talks   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2019-5-6 14:40:01 |Display all floors
That's probably one of the reasons the Harvard president was invited over to Beijing last month.

I am sure our leaders didn't just invite him to talk about the weather or cultural exchange only.

There must have been urgent matters they wanted to discuss with him about in order to stamp out official corruption in this area -- like officials using illegitimate means to get into his school etc. and a possible list of such corrupt cases.  

When you use a false name to go to such a school your transcripts would have to be "re-invented" or "doctored" at the level of the home country.

Nobody should be a fan of doing that.

I am sure our leaders sincerely want to stamp out such corruption at least in an official capacity.

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Post time 2019-5-6 16:05:08 |Display all floors
This post was edited by wchao37 at 2019-5-6 18:06

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Post time 2019-5-6 16:16:53 |Display all floors
The following was uploaded by forumite reedak on May 6, 2019:

1.  Donald Trump tweeted on 5 May 2019:

"For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars...."

2.  The rest of the message was carried over in the next tweet:

"....of additional goods sent to us by China remain untaxed, but will be shortly, at a rate of 25%. The Tariffs paid to the USA have had little impact on product cost, mostly borne by China. The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!"

3.  Donald Trump is so confident that he is going to win the trade war that he bragged in March, "We will do very well either way, with or without a deal."

Please note the last few words in his May 5 tweet:  "....they attempt to renegotiate. No!"  Trump seems to rule out further negotiation.  He seems to say:  "Surrender now, or else we’ll finish the job!"
  
There is a Chinese saying "Worship the high, trample the low".  There is another Chinese saying, "A human heart can become so greedy that it can be compared to a snake swallowing an elephant".  Here I coin the term "trumpython" for a "bully king" who is so ruthless and brutal that he would trample his victims into the ground or out of existence.

Trump and company seem to have reached the (wrong?) conclusion (or actually a delusion?) that China is a weakling after silently measuring it up in the 10 months of trade negotiation.

4.  Using simple arithmetic calculations, some people claim that China is in a weaker position due to its huge trade surplus with the US.  As a result, China cannot match its tariffs one to one with the US in the trade war.  However, Trump's tariffs should be of no concern to China.  As pointed out in an article by Mark Niquette on January 17, 2019, "While Trump has suggested on Twitter and in public comments that tariffs are somehow being charged to or paid by China and other countries, trade economists say that’s generally misleading.  US importers of record are responsible for the duties, and ultimately US businesses and consumers could pay through higher costs, they say."

Hence, China needs not raise any more tariffs on US goods.  It just has to sit back and laugh at Donald Trump for fooling his own people into filling up the US coffers with their hard-earned money.  Higher tariffs on Chinese goods are akin to full-blown economic sanctions, placing China in the same league of Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela which are heavily sanctioned by the US.  Using an analogy of a boy not worried of getting his body wet anymore to play in the rain after falling into a pool, China should have no qualm trading freely with those heavily sanctioned countries if Trump foolishly carries out his threat of higher tariffs on more Chinese goods.

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Hi Folks:

Don't say I didn't warn you.

The 70 y/o man is ready for the biggest gamble of his life, so nominally he is ready to send troops to fight a major war anytime.

Is our side ready physically and mentally to take up the challenge?

Could we still afford to squander some money to help rebuild the tourist attraction Notre Dame, knowing that the Cowshed with a spire wasn't far away from where the Versailles Treaty was signed in May, 1919?

Ask yourself this: even though you know the name of the protagonist in the American film "Avengers," do you even know the name of our military chief under our president?

There is a Chinese saying: "When two opponents encounter on a narrow path, the bolder one wins."

I hope our side is the bolder and wiser one, even though neither of the two has any military experience.

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Post time 2019-5-9 08:18:19 |Display all floors
This post was edited by wchao37 at 2019-5-9 13:46

看川普的一切做法, 明明就是一个小人. 老外本來就沒道德, 川普又是最沒道德的那種.

早就应该停止与川普谱谈什么判了, 是浪费时间. 美国了也可以撕, 看看 '特不靠' 蹦跶多高? 西方的 "精神" 是个笑!

判成功, 中国方面, , ? ! 中国不要不平等條約, 奸詐反覆, 言而無信, 談判白談. 人民齊心, 開放内需,抗美自,中國加油,天佑中華!

關鍵時刻更要堅持. 有利中國的條件,寧可談崩,也不委曲求全!

美国才三亿多人口,离开了美国世上五十多亿人口道中国会被亿多人控制?

無奸不商. 別忘了川普可是商人. 就不相信沒與老美貿易,天就會下來. 中國跟全世界做貿易,就是不與五眼聯盟等惡棍做买卖. 不要被美國養套殺!進而經濟被控制於美國股腕之中!

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Post time 2019-5-11 10:59:12 |Display all floors
Mark this day -- approximately 100 years from the May Fourth Movement, when the West tried to dictate terms to us at will, even when we thought we were on the winning side at the end of WWI.

That phrase "Thief calling catch thief" couldn't have had a better annotation than what happened today.

If you haven't already, just go and listen to what Trump had to say earlier.

As I said, he was never sincere about the negotiations.  So why talk to such a faithless scoundrel in the first place?

It is racism alright -- the Native Americans can never be allowed to aim for co-prosperity with the Cowboys -- that's why I kept on talking about the Native Americans whom the grouchy old man on a wheelchair in a smelly corner of the toilet used to shoot at will.  He is complaining that no nurse is around to even give him a dry diaper.

Trump wanted us to write the humiliating trade terms into our Constitution.

Fortunately we stopped short of the disaster.

We gave them a chance to win together with us because we didn't study the history of the Native Americans and didn't understand their true mentality.

Come what may, and despite foreseeable short-term difficulties, there's nothing that can stop the Chinese juggernaut now.

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Post time 2019-5-11 21:12:08 |Display all floors
The talks haven't been formally ended yet he has started to ramp up his tariffs and thus reduced all plausible outcomes to a single result. China should move on.

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Post time 2019-5-11 21:22:41 |Display all floors
Let the record show that push has come to shove.

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