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NORTH KOREA IS DESPERATE AND NEAR TIPPING POINT - FLASHBACK TO VERCINGETORIX. [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2017-10-23 05:32:23 |Display all floors
This is not a game where the ending can be indefinitely postponed.  While the game has gone on for a long while with mutual threats and recriminations, and mutual refusals to sit down and talk about how each side should concede (in short, neither side wants to concede anything substantial, only what is peripheral), the ever rising stakes caused by North Korea's advances in nuclear and missile technology have made it impossible to kick the can down the road any more.  As Tillerson said, there is no more road left.  In short, this is the end of the road.

With the tight sanctions levied on North Korea, Kim may end up like Vercingetorix after the Siege of Alesia, which was sealed off with a double layer of siegework, a circumvallation facing it, and a contravallation facing out to prevent reinforcements, with the exception that the northern part of this siege is made with sanctions, not siegework, sanctions against a China that seems quite swayable due to its many worries from the past, present and future.  In the end, Vercingetorix rode out with his war horse to the camp of Julius Caesar to surrender himself in person.  At least, that is one possible scenario.

But Kim has more firepower than Vercingertorix, so he may decide to wipe out everything that he considers to be besieging him in all directions, except perhaps where there is none, its northern border.  If he is the re-incarnation of Vercingetorix to face the re-incarnation of Julius Caesar, he might have returned with none other than this purpose.  And the story of Korea might end up very different from that of Gaul.  Indeed, the story of the Roman Empire would have been very different if Vercingetorix had broken the siege, for Brutus was there, fighting on the side of Caesar, as his friend and defender.  Who knows what the world would be like, as this occured six decades before the birth of Jesus Christ, so everything would have changed in Western history, and for that matter, world history too.

Putin warned the West not to push Kim to a corner, but the history of the Siege of Alesia dictates this is what is needed for victory and the final conquest of Gaul.  So, who is right?  Putin or Trump?

What is certain is that whatever happens to Gaul, in Trump's calculus, it would be better than that happening in Italy, and that is something that Putin cannot argue against.





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Post time 2017-10-23 11:49:22 |Display all floors
Egged on by Abe, Trump will think he is Alexander TG. And proceed to cut the k-pen gordion knot after crossing the rubicon/yalu in the manner of Julius.

Then all hell will break loose.

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Post time 2017-10-23 13:51:38 |Display all floors
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Post time 2017-10-23 17:49:30 |Display all floors
markwu Post time: 2017-10-23 11:49
Egged on by Abe, Trump will think he is Alexander TG. And proceed to cut the k-pen gordion knot afte ...

Trump loves superlatives, like the best, the never ever in history stuff, the greatest, the most devastating, and so forth, which fits Kim's love for hyperboles of a similar order.  Together, they make an entertaining team, day or night.  They are basically talking to each other over our heads, and expect us to pay attention to their chatter, and react to it as well.  The problem is that nobody knows what the two of them are talking about any more.  One says he is going to use a Martian-made death ray, and the other claims to have a Kryptonite that will make his enemy turn into jelly.  Of course, they are thinking of using their toys, one day, if they can get away with it. Comical as they may sound, the truth is they half believe they will do it, or that they will be forced to do it.  So, seriously, we have to think, what if they really do it?  They would make excellent play mates, but alas, they are grown up, and they cannot make believe any more.  We just have to be patient and hope the unimaginable will never happen, and the inevitable, likewise.

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Post time 2017-10-24 14:48:41 |Display all floors
In the beginning of all major sieges, whether of Alesia or later on, of Masada, the initial phases of work look futile, but stone by stone, stake by stake, chain link by chain link, when the siege work is done, it looks like the manacles of the gods.  In time, North Korea will feel its relentless constriction, and make a decision, to break out, or to break down.  For now, NK fears a direct attack, which remains an option should the siege fail to materialize due to China's refusal to cooperate.  This is the rationale for its making more and more provocative threats, as a deterrent against being attacked. But the Alliance needs not surrender its high moral ground by striking first.  A siege will actually kill two birds with one stone - it will force NK to act first, and give the Alliance the option of striking back hard, or of tightening the siege even more, in either case, causing NK to collapse.  

Given the above analysis, once fathomed by Kim, the temptation would be very great to strike out before the siege is complete, especially given the firepower he has amassed.  This is the same strategy of a high roller to bet all he has on a single bet if he knows that the odds are against him.  Spreading his stake over several smaller bets only ensures the odds will crush him.

While the House has better odds and a greater capacity to back up its bet with real resources, the high roller to a degree, can still break the House, when the cards are laid down.  If this were just a poker game, it would be the game of the millennium.  But this is far more important than a poker game.  Millions of lives are at risk.  A third party with sufficient authority and power has to step in to STOP the game, and impose a fair solution.  It is unclear if China can assert that degree of authority and demonstrate that extent of power to convince both sides to lay their cards FACE DOWN, and accept its draft of a Treaty of Peace.  Why?  Because if the game goes to its logical conclusion, there is no way of avoiding a carnage that would dwarf all wars in human history.  This is a tall order, one I cannot fault China if it cannot fulfill this thankless mission.  A coalition of the EU, China and Russia, under the auspices of the UN might have to do the job, and this might become the foundation of a future one world government, where no one superpower can dictate the rules, but must abide by the collective will, for the benefit of all.







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Post time 2017-10-31 15:29:06 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abcfirst at 2017-10-31 15:47

DAVID'S SLINGSHOT WAS NO BLUFF OR COMIC RELIEF - IT WAS REAL - ASK GOLIATH.

To the North Koreans, this is not a game.  Their threats are not only to bluff their way out of a quandary.  They are their means of getting the best out of a choice-less situation.  David's slingshot may look trivial and comical.  But when faced with the alternative of being destroyed by Goliath, his sling has a very different meaning.  North Korea is now cornered.  This is the moment of greatest danger, not to NK which has been under this kind of threat for the past 70 years, but to those who surround it with clubs and pitchforks.  

The Siege of Alesia is on.  First, they will release the old and the very young with their mothers across the Yalu for safekeeping in China.  Then, all hell will break loose.  Vercingetorix has found the reply to Caesar's circumvallation.  

The first Korean War of 1950 took place almost exactly 2,000 years after the Battle of Alesia. If Patton is right, Vercingetorix might have returned to prove the outcome could have been different if he had not surrendered, and concentrated all his forces on one section of the siege work, as later historians hazarded.  We hope for an even better outcome, PEACE.





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