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This post was edited by abramicus at 2016-9-7 12:05|
wchao37 Post time: 2016-9-3 18:34
You mean Putin befriends Abe in retaliation of China's approach to Poland?
This is not an argument. It is an observation, based on facts, and their probable causes. Putin and Abe have a longstanding dispute over the 4 South Kurile Islands that Japan wants returned to Japan, but which Russia took over as its booty of war, in a fair exchange of war declarations in WWII. That Japan lost is no fault of Russia's. Who wanted Japan to attack Russia, first on February 8, 1904 that concluded with the Treaty of Portsmouth on September 5, 1905, in which Russia accepted humiliating terms of surrender of Port Arthur to Japan. Wonder if the 110th Anniversary of the Treaty of Portsmouth on September 5th was remembered by Putin in his attempt to befriend Abe, which he did not succeed in doing, because Japan wants all the four islands back at any price.
The shot over the G20 bow in Hangzhou cannot be missed by China, especially as Putin met Abe in Vladivostok ahead of the G20 meeting when both of them met Xi. It provided the context of the message - Russo-Japanese Friendship is in the works, separate from Russo-Chinese and Japanese-Chinese relations. The likelihood of any major agreement between Putin and Abe is low, but the threat is that if push comes to shove, they could be partners again reminiscent of the Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact of April 19, 1941, that was preceded by the ceasefire agreement of September 15, 1939, in the aftermath of Japan's defeat at the Battles of Khalkhin Gol of 1939, the most decisive of which was the Nomonhan Incident of August 20, 1939. Stalin proceeded to sign the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact on August 24, 1939, and invaded Poland on September 17, 1939.
That was how Poland figured in the geopolitical strategy of Stalin's Russia in 1939.
It is not clear if Putin is taking a page from him, and is trying to deal with Poland through a pact of non-aggression with Japan, or if Putin is also using his meeting with Abe to send a signal to China that Poland's situation is a core interest of Russia. There is no reason for him not to kill two birds with one stone, even if one bird in hand would satisfy him well enough.
In the end, no harm was done. But the message was delivered. China would henceforth pay more attention to the strategic importance of Poland to Russia, economic and diplomatic considerations aside.