Views: 3349|Replies: 16

Is the Peshkov Martyrdom the Point of No Return?   [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-11-26 13:58:55 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2015-11-26 14:00

For Lt. Colonel Oleg A. Peshkov, his flight over Syria bordering Turkey was certainly his point of no return.  In violation of the Geneva convention treating prisoners of war, Col. Peshkov was shot while descending in his parachute, by presumably non-ISIS terrorists, since that region, as the infallible mainstream media maintains, is an area bombed by Russia repeatedly even if it did not harbor any IS terrorists.  Or, is it otherwise?  Or, maybe Putin was telling the truth that there is no way to distinguish between them?  Mathematical logic dictates that if there is no difference between the two, then they must be identical.

Adding to the fury of the Russian populace was the confession by the other co-pilot who survived the ordeal, that their plane was shot out of the sky without any warning.  This means two things immediately.  First, the stealth capability of the Turkish planes was superior to the counter-stealth detection technology of the Russians.  Secondly, both he and his pilot must have been illegally allowed to be pilots, since they were deaf and unable to hear TEN warnings sent to them by the Turkish pilots, to leave Turkish air space that they had presumably violated for an agonizingly long 17 seconds, about the duration of a long fart.

It was a terrible loss of face for Russia, to have failed to deter such a violent response by Turkey, for all the bravado its forces exhibited in kicking ass in the Levant.  And even worse, to have failed to detect such an attack, despite its advanced radar technology.

Fortunately, Putin did not order any retaliation on Turkish forces or territory, and so the spectre of WW3 came and went very quickly.  But what really worries everyone is that this kind of event could be repeated, including on non-Russian forces.  And each time, the world would be put on notice that WWIII could erupt any moment.  With the South China Sea temperatures rising every week, and now this, plus Ukraine, and add to this the coming bankrupting of Chinese factories and banks when Yellen raises the Fed rate, and you can say, 2016 will be a very interesting year, if not the most interesting, as it may also be the last year of all mankind.






Use magic tools Report

Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2015-11-26 14:16:32 |Display all floors
Interesting to be alive
I am me and that is something you will never be, no matter how hard you try!!

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-11-27 03:14:35 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2015-11-27 03:19

BEST FOR TURKEY AND RUSSIA TO SIT DOWN AND TALK ABOUT WHAT REALLY HAPPENED BECAUSE...THINGS MAY NOT BE WHAT THEY SEEM.

If both sides are ready to fight over this to the final end, then they need to be sure that they have the facts right, or they would be fools to their own people for having sacrificed so much for something so wrong.

It is natural for each side to trust its own pilots, its own technical data, and its own analysis.

This is just the beginning.  The next step is to understand what really happened by discussing with the opposite side the data that they have which could contradicts one's own data.  Each side should consider the "facts" it holds to be "data" rather than "facts" until the other side's data are reviewed.

This is extremely important to avoid unnecessary distrust, disgust, and aggression.

Since Turkey was the one that admitted to shooting down the Russian plane, it has the obligation to share with the Russian ambassador the "data" it had of having warned the Russian pilot of his entering Turkish air space, and Russia should objectively evaluate it, because there is always the possibility of human error in the surviving co-pilot's recollection of where the plane was and what they heard or did not hear.  Also, there is the overwhelming need for the co-pilot to avoid blame for the disaster, and there is much to gain in blaming Turkey for not warning them.  He will even get a medal for it, think about that.

On the other hand, the Turkish pilots might have warned the Russian plane after they had already hit it, and kept a record of their TEN warnings, which could not have been possible to deliver in the short 17 seconds that the Russian plan purportedly entered Turkish air space.  Again, the "data" must be scrutinized as to authenticity, locality, timing, and synchronicity.

Another possibility is that of a technical glitch or dysfunction, accidental or induced (by one's own plane or by some external intervention), to cause the "TEN warnings" of the Turkish pilots not to reach the Russian plane.  Could these messages have been blocked from being emitted due to faulty circurity in the Turkish plane, a software override by some external controllers, interference by the stealth or anti-stealth technology of the Turkish or Russian planes, by the weather, by ground radars, or by some unknown technology, etc?  Are there or are there not third parties to the breakdown in the transmission or reception or both of the TEN warnings, supposedly given by the Turkish pilots to the Russian plane?

With so many un-answered questions, it would be foolish for Russia to blame Turkey for the outcome, and likewise, foolish for Turkey to dismuss Russian anger as mere emotionality and irrationality, or as sheer lack of respect for the sovereignty of Turkish air space.

Indeed, if WWIII were to erupt as a result of this incident, one can say that never will have so many people been destroyed, because of so little facts.




Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-11-27 03:47:39 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2015-11-27 06:54

THIS INCIDENT IS A PERFECT SCENARIO FOR A CHINESE KISSINGER TO STEP IN AND MAKE HISTORY.

Both sides need someone they trust to ask all the right and fair questions, and give his or her objective analysis of the facts, and the relevant international conventions as they apply to these facts.

First, President Erdogan gave a very calm and thoughtful interview to a mainstream media reporter who asked him to respond to accusations by Putin of "stabbing him in the back" and of being "accomplices of terrorists", and stated what is actually quite reasonable based on his limited knowledge of the "facts" that he was fed by his own people, which is that his pilots had warned off the Russian plane TEN times in 17 seconds (how that is possible is truly hard to believe), and that they were defending the sovereign air space of Turkey as they are instructed, and as Turkey is entitled to do.

Second, President Erdogan stated quite correctly that his government has been fighting terrorism itself, and does not support the IS at all (now this might be subject to rebuttal given the purported steady flow of oil from the IS controlled territories to the ports of Turkey).  This is something that Erdogan has to check out himself thoroughly, with an unannounced on-the-spot inspection of Turkish ports for shipments of oil from the Daesh.

Thirdly, President Erdogan missed the opportunity in the interview to state, but can still do so even now through his own palace spokesperson, that if Russia can prove its plane never entered Turkish air space, Turkey would apologize for the incident and pay an appropriate compensation to the Russian government and the family of the pilot.  This was the missing part of the interview that the reporter, naturally, did not but could have asked, which could lead to an unraveling of what might have been a "tampered incident" and a true rapprochement between Turkey and Russia.

Foiurth, in China, such an incident is considered a moment of danger and of opportunity at the same time.  The danger is the igniting of a war between NATO and Russia, or the beginning of a chain reaction that leads to WW3.  The opportunity is to seal the peace at the end of the terminus of the Silk Road which would never be possible if its historic end point, Damascus and the Levant, is to be locked in WW3 conditions.

Fifth, it takes courage for China to step up to the plate, and offer to Russia and to Turkey to help defuse their dispute with the understanding that if the Russian plane did not enter Turkish air space during this incident, that Turkey will apologize and compensate, and that if the Russian plane did enter Turkish air space, Russia would apologize for the human error of the pilot, but disavow it as a policy of its government.

THIS IS A READY-MADE NOBEL-PRIZE WINNER (BUT DON'T EXPECT NOBEL TO CLAP ITS HANDS, FOR OBVIOUS REASONS).  TIME TO ACT, TIME IS RUNNING OUT, IT IS NOW OR NEVER.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-11-27 07:08:06 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2015-11-27 07:09

With Hollande and Putin having achieved their separate agreement to fight terrorism together, the risk of NATO-led war against Russia seems to have diminished, despite freshly elicited phrases of provocation clipped from an interesting interview that Erdogan gave to a Western mainstream media reporter, whose questions are prefaced with Russia's anger against Turkey.  As mentioned in the preceding post, the missing question tells the whole story about the interview.  If its purpose was to help discover areas of cooperation in resolving the dispute peacefully, it should have been asked of Erdogan, that if Russia could prove its plane never entered Turkish air space, would he then apologize to Russia and offer appropriate compensation to the pilot and for the plane's loss?  

This question was never asked.

And therefore, we know the intent of the interview could hardly be one of exploring avenues of understanding and resolution of dispute.  What other motive for the interview requires no imagination to figure out.

And thus, it becomes EXTREMELY INTERESTING AS TO HOW IT WAS TECHNOLOGICALLY POSSIBLE FOR BOTH THE TURKISH AND RUSSIAN VERSION OF EVENTS TO BE BOTH TRUE, I.E., THAT THE RUSSIAN PLANE DID NOT ENTER TURKISH AIR SPACE BUT THE TURKISH PILOT AND GROUND RADARS BOTH SEEM TO "SEE IT ON THE RADAR", THAT THE TURKISH PILOTS DID SPEAK TO THEIR MICROPHONES WARNING THE RUSSIAN PLANE IN ENGLISH TEN TIMES, BUT THAT THE RUSSIANS NEVERTHELESS DID NOT HEAR IT AT ALL.  THIS IS NO LONGER A POLITICAL MYSTERY BUT A SCIENTIFIC MYSTERY AS WELL.  HOW RELIABLE ARE THE ELECTRONICS OF BOTH SIDES WHEN IT COMES TO DETECTION OF AND COMMUNICATION WITH SUSPICIOUS AIRCRAFTS?  WAS TURKEY IN CONTROL, AND WAS RUSSIA IN CONTROL, OF THEIR OWN CIRCUITS?

With Hollande's deft "WE HAVE YOUR BACK COVERED" statement to Putin, the matter may be laid to rest prematurely.  But if Putin and Erdogan are the astute leaders that they pride themselves to be, they have a duty to their countrymen to explain the CASE OF THE TEN MISSING MESSAGES and the WRONG RADAR READINGS OF BOTH SIDES.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

2015 Most Popular Member Happiest Member

Post time 2015-11-27 07:27:34 |Display all floors
with the level of technology available on both sides, any malfunction or error is not likely. There is certainly some mischief being played. One should look at who stands to benefit with creating such a situation. As they say, if one follows the motives (not just the money) it will lead us to the culprits.
My friend the Black Swan

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

2015 Most Popular Member Happiest Member

Post time 2015-11-27 07:31:54 |Display all floors
yes, this is an opportunity for China or other neutral parties to try and mediate, but that is not likely to succeed. History shows plenty of other such opportunities and incidents where neutral umpires and referees had a role and it did not work.
btw, if there is a world war, it will NOT be just because of this incident. it will be because of a lot more events preceding and following this one. Yes, the motives and mischief makers may be the same ones leading up to that, but don't believe that history or humanity will or should look at this incident that triggered anything major.
My friend the Black Swan

Use magic tools Report

You can't reply post until you log in Log in | register

BACK TO THE TOP
Contact us:Tel: (86)010-84883548, Email: blog@chinadaily.com.cn
Blog announcement:| We reserve the right, and you authorize us, to use content, including words, photos and videos, which you provide to our blog
platform, for non-profit purposes on China Daily media, comprising newspaper, website, iPad and other social media accounts.