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THE GREAT UNRAVELING|
The fact that the Iranian diplomats are making a show of joyous celebration, as if the deal has been closed, and that they have done their part, means Iran is not really serious about making the critical concession that the US wanted, which is unbridled instant inspection of Iran's military bases by the IAEA. Kerry sounded more sombre and cautious about whether a deal is going to be struck, and logically, if one side is not sure about a deal, there is no reason for the other side to presume it would concede. Thus, the side making the show of success is the less believable side.
This has nothing to do with the merits or demerits of the Iranian position, just a logical analysis of the news regarding the endgame of the Iran negotiations. It seems that Iran will not concede, and the US will not accept the deal without such a concession. Therefore, one should expect the news shortly that the deal has collapsed.
This will add more pressure to the markets in the morning . . . China, Greece, and now Iran . . . without a mechanism for fail-safe verification, the is no mechanism for an agreement either. The Senate will surely oppose it. And if so, Obama cannot just accept it. But if Iran has agreed to unrestricted instantaneous inspoection of its mlitary bases by IAEA, then the deal can be said to be done. The question is, did Iran agree to such inspections?