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This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-6-27 18:01|
KEY TO SUCCESS IN BUILDING THE TRANS-ASIA RAILROAD SYSTEM
China and its partners in the building of the Trans-Asia railroad system MUST factor in the fact that there will be diplomatic, political, military and foreign-funded terrorist interference and sabotage on any one railroad line.
Being prepared to repair the damage or overcome the obstacle may increase the probablity of success, but this is not enough.
Suppose, the probability of a successful repair of any one kind of sabotage is 95%.
If there is only one railroad being constructed, and N is the number of sabotages on the railroad project, then the chance of the whole project ultimately failing becomes 1 - 0.95^N. The tipping point when the probability of overall success drops to the chance of a coin flip, or 0.50, occurs when the project encounters the 14th sabotage. This is easy for the opponents of the Trans-Asia railroad project to bring about.
Now, imagine if China embarks on M separate and independent railroad projects linking China with Europe through the Middle East. The probability of at least one succeeding is (1 - (1-0.95^N)^M). If we wish to make the probability of at least one railroad project succeeding equal to 0.95, then at an anticipated rate of interference of roughly 15 times per railroad line, China would need to embark on 5 railroad projects.
If the average cost per railroad project is 40 billion dollars, this equates to an investment of 200 billion dollars, with a probability of success of 0.95.
The big bonus is that if one railroad succeeds, the impetus by its opponents to stop the other four railroad projects would be diminished as the objective of isolating the China market by land barriers would be futile, and all five projects would likely eventually come to fruition, increasing trade by up to five times the expected amount with one railroad, thus providing a redundancy that makes the termination of such trade by land nearly impossible to achieve in the future.