On Feb. 18, Apple launched its mobile payment platform Apple Pay in China after US, UK, Australia and Canada. On debut day, over 38 million Chinese iPhone users registered the tool, and nearly 80,000 bank cards were bound to Apple Pay per minute.

Many people rushed to experience Apple Pay’s idiot-proof functions, shown by a video going viral online that users can scan bank cards and type into verification code to easily bind their cards and they only need to unlock their iPhones to receive wireless Pos machine signal for finishing paying in a second.

Unlike Alibaba’s Alipay and its counterpart Tencent’s Tenpay, which rely on Internet access to start apps and scan QR code for finishing paying, Apple Pay has an unparalleled trait: employing the Near Field Communication technology. NFC helps Apple Pay copy a substitute virtual card in iPhones after binding and then users can swipe the virtual card to pay without even accessing the Internet, more efficient and safer than Alipay and Tenpay.

Cooperating with Union Pay, a nationwide bank card payment network, Apple Pay’s entrance is highly anticipated in market performance by some industry observers, who ascertain that it will become a competitive player in domestic mobile payment market and bite into the dominant market share occupied by Tenpay and Alipay. Apple Pay’s successful launch obviously have introduced new competition to current mobile payment market. However, interpreting Apple Pay’s miracle as a prelude to reshuffle China’s current mobile payment market and disrupt the status quo is either a misrepresentation of reality or a wishful thinking.

Following Apple Pay, Google Pay and Samsung Pay are also well-prepared to enter China in the form of joining hands with Union Pay. Involvement of many more new comers will intensify competition, but potential leeway left for Apple Pay and the like to grow is limited. Because Apple Pay only works on Apple Watch, iPhone6 and iPhone versions above iPhone 6, and the total number of these qualified devices reaches maximumly 84 million, not enough to overwhelm the gigantic number of active users in Alipay and Tenpay.

Meanwhile, Chinese customers have got used to Alipay and Tenpay and their mobile consumption experience has almost been shaped by the two, hence new mobile payment tools like Apple Pay can’t challenge them easily. The latest data by Central Bank of China shows that 70 percent of the 85 trillion yuan paid via mobile phone was transacted via Alipay and Tenpay in the first three quarters of 2015. With the market continues to grow, the user base number of two dominators will continue to increase accordingly.

One compelling reason to be optimistic about the future of Apple Pay in China is the seemingly win-win bond between Apple Company and Union Pay, which indeed has contributed greatly to Apple Pay’s short-term success. Nevertheless, how the bond will benefit the two in the long term remains to be seen.

As a hardware manufacturer, Apple has limited resources to tap mobile payment market, hence relying on Union Pay’s extensive Pos machine network and intimate relationship with domestic banks to promote Apple Pay becomes imperative. As for Union Pay, which have launched its own version NFC mobile payment platform Quick Pass last December to resist the prevailing offense by Alipay and Tenpay, have been increasingly losing its own battle ground in offline payment sector, so uniting Apple Pay might help Quick Pass gain popularity in mobile payment.

Frankly speaking, this bond is a temporary expedient, not strong enough to dethrone Alipay and Tencent, because both Union Pay and Apple have their own unspoken impetus. On one hand, given that iPhone sales in China has shrunk, some telecommunication experts predict that the real reason for Apple to launch Apple Pay is not promote its mobile payment tool, but to ratchet up the declining iPhone sales. When Apple focuses on increasing its phone sales, its investment in mobile payment can’t be overestimated.

On the other hand, Union Pay’s real purpose is to join hands with Apple Pay to compete with Alipay and Tenpay, but learning from good runners can’t make Union Pay become a good runner easily, let alone winning competition. Because Union Pay’s payment interface has been not user-friendly and discount items provided have been overshadowed by Alipay and Tenpay, Union Pay has lagged behind in spite of its technological advantage. With the help of Apple Pay, Union Pay might prioritize its service standard and expand its users base number quickly, but the changeable market won’t give it enough time to mend its mistakes, when Union Pay transfigures to be a good runner, Alipay and Tenpay possibly will have finished all laps.

All in all, Apple Pay won’t change the basic status quo of China’s mobile payment market in the short term, but its avant garde, safe and efficient paying method intrigue millions of Chinese customers and broaden their horizon in a way that even Alipay and Tenpay feel envious of. The dominance of Alipay and Tenpay will continue, but the process of satisfying customers’ needs by constantly improving the technology is endless.