[Writer's note: portions of this blog have previously been published on a variety of American media and political websites as a first draft of important events and debates in global history. This context is especially important as ISIS/ISIL has executed a Chinese citizen, whose death China has strongly condemned and vowed to pursue justice for this unconscionable killing. I have edited and reorganized the posts and added new information for China Daily readers. If you have questions about the cultural references or the content, please leave a comment and I promise to respond. Thank you for reading! /wr]
The exploding plane has been quickly forgotten. The Russians denied it, so did the Egyptians; then the Russians confessed and came clean.
The flight, loaded with Russian passengers returning from a Red Sea resort, exploded. In mid-air! Over the Sinai peninsula in Egypt. A bomb ripped the plane apart with the force of a kilogram of TNT, turning the French-built Airbus A320, Russian Metrojet into a debris field of plastic and metal also littered and interlaced with the remains of 224 bodies, mainly Russians flying to St. Petersburg, the home of Russia's czars, a historic city of great architectural palaces and art. At first, the Egyptians hedged and the Russians denied a bomb killed the passengers and blew up the plane. But after 17 days, the evidence of the event could no longer be ignored or denied. A bomb caused the blast and the deaths and devastation. As it had from the beginning, ISIS claimed the responsibility.
The ISIS terrorists claimed it was in retaliation for Russia flying air strikes in Syria. ISIS blew up the plane because the Russian Air Force had begun striking ISIS positions in Syria and killing ISIS followers. The plane exploding was only 3 weeks ago. But in the news cycle the exploding plane has been forgotten; it's B roll.
The bombing of the plane and the instant
mid-sky death of 224 passengers scattered in a debris field in the
Sinai has been pushed aside by bullets fired from full clips of the
Russian rifle, the Kalashnikov AK 47, first made in 1949, the most
common weapon in use by military units, terrorists and insurgencies
around the world--9 million rifles still in use! Five of those 9
million were used in Paris last Friday night to kill the patrons of
Paris cafes, sitting outside along the sidewalks and inside at
tables, and at a concert hall where an American band was performing.
So far, 129 have died, their bodies and the wounded a debris field
that littered the early night streets and venues of Paris' 11th
Arrondissement, a working class district in the heart of Paris.
In 3 weeks, ISIS executed the most divergent attacks on targets and countries of any terrorist group. The series included Russia and France, bombing an airliner and butchering diners and concert goers; one attack in the desert of the Sinai, one in the world's most romantic city, Paris; both with terrific carnage that changed political conversations from West to East.
In the US, too much of the debate is being driven by GOP superficiality and cliche. Example: Newt Gingrich screams on Fox about names while silent about bombs and their production, or the expansion of international terrorism into Europe using European residents who have been radicalized; never a solution or measure of helpful common sense in his blame. Adding chaos, his pillorying partisanship over nonsense expands the perception of confusion. Gingrich politically loots the tragedies that follow terror.
The objectives in fighting terrorism must target its stages of development at its lowest level. What do we know about how its money is laundered and funneled? How near or far are we from intercepting the right communications? Are we monitoring physical spaces where weapons may be made? Can each security approach be rethought and refined?
Terrorism is played out on a different grid than state conflicts–terrorism is more a social activity than a military attack. Responding with missiles, and state armies will have little effect except to inflame the peer pressure that creates suicide bombers. Terrorism is small war with a big impact; as it coalesces, it grows, gathers and dispenses evil, individual by individual.
Those individuals are a part of a process all nations must become better at intercepting. The US is able to target key leaders; its drones have answered every Obama promise. Now we need to target key followers. Refine the patterns and data that enable small active family-and-friend cells to be accurately identified.
Let passion clarify the course and not let anger cloud its steps! This is a quantum war, individual attacks in spaced intervals against soft civilian targets selected for massive killing. It is a media war and a subterranean war, its human assets hidden and mobile, its amoeba-like command structure ubiquitous in the shadows.
How did this terrible butchery begin? Fact: President Bush negotiated and signed with Iraq the "Status of Forces Agreement" for the withdrawal of US troops. The agreement Bush signed called for the "full withdrawal" of troops by 2011, and was approved by 27 of 28 of the Iraqi cabinet members and its parliament.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki then insisted on full withdrawal of US forces, despite US (under Obama) objections. Given that Iraq was a sovereign state (Nuri Kamal al-Maliki was handpicked by Bush, who "looked into his eyes"), the continued presence of US troops against Iraq objections would have been a re-invasion of the country and a breach of the signed agreement. Al-Maliki's motives were obvious: he wanted the spoils. He inflamed sectarian warfare between different religious and ethnic fractions, expanded power and corruption for his fraction, which led to Iraq crumbling, creating the conditions for ISIS and its knells of death.
As they often are, Republican objections are chimeras of their own deals and errors. The GOP Congress omitted facts, distorted the chain of events, and cast their net of blame solely on Obama.
It's a political maneuver they favor: Jeb Bush recently said his brother keep the country save, neatly omitting his brother was President when 9/11 occurred! (My favorite example lies outside of terrorism: it is the GOP blame of the global recession not on the insatiable greed of big banks but on diversifying mortgages for working families under community reinvestment. My second favorite: ignoring the debt limit for money Congress has authorized and spent.) The facts under the hype reveal their flip!
These facts seldom see light.
Leave aside the logjam of politics and focus on new thinking: the traditional invade/don't invade, boots/no boots, rhetoric equals strength breaks down when confronted with terror--as Obama noted in his 2009 Nobel speech.
The current paradigm lives too much in the moment and ignores the dangers of the edge--terrorism cuts both ways. Yes, we are all mad, some fearful; yes, our leaders are partisan, even against the common interest and common sense. Examples: Eric Cantor refused to support assistance for his district's storm disaster. GOP governors replaced the Obamacare fight with a call for the Ebola quarantine, then railed against the 50,000 children fleeing violence and death in Central America towns controlled by vicious drug gangs; they opposed the deportation of criminals before families among undocumented residents. The same governors who oppose Syrian refugees, oppose the expansion of Medicaid to their state's seniors. Some Republican state legislatures passed bills nullifying any federal action they disagreed with; South Carolina and others voted to establish their own currency.
They conveniently ignore the 24 month triple screening for refugees. They posit the false and entirely misleading idea that the Syrians entering Europe would be freshly picked--ahead of those already in camps--and flown to the US with cursory only vetting. It's not so!
That said, the Administration failed to get the facts and details out in front of the policy, the only way to combat the misrepresentations.
When the details collapse, common sense collapses. Obscured and blocked by the partisan fight is the failure to fight terrorism with new means. These terrorists rent cars! (They may share frequent flier miles!) A keen focus on the finances of terror will hasten its defeat.
On Sept. 16, 2014, I wrote in the New York Times:
Two of ISIL’s most important drivers are its economic engine and its recruiting. Turkey is the center of an ISIL smuggling operation that produces revenues of $1-3 million a day from sales of black market oil. This money fuels ISIL’s military operations, pays its combatants, supplies its stores. Without it, ISIL would be ineffective in the field. Take away the two pillars, revenue and recruiting; and what’s left?
On Sept. 26, 2014, I wrote:
One better way would be to turn the money off; imaginary fantasies have real consequences when cash is put behind them. ISIL provides the perfect opportunity to stop wealth from enabling conflict at even greater expense. How did ISIL go from the bottom heap of terrorists trying to catch a rocket ride to the top of the pack, in a little more than a year? Money! Not their fervor or charisma, not their skills at arms or their ruthlessness; what has made ISIL the first destination of the globe’s dispossessed children is money, cloaked by the false nexus of fighting for faith against militarist capitalism.
Money put ISIL on the world stage; Dry up the money. Watch what happens when the bullets run out. ISIL will join the list of beggars looking for sponsors, whining about what used to be.
Putting rigorous resources to halt the sources of dark money is certainly a way of shutting down ISIL’s field strength. Calling Obama weak or pausing refugee resettlement is not a solution or an answer to an expanding crisis.
Twitter circulated a picture of young Syrian children arriving at an airport in Washington state, carrying gifts of flowers, looked dazed and beleaguered by their new surroundings; the text reminded everyone that these are the Syrian refugees 31 GOP governors fear are terrorist embeds.
Ok--the
image twisted and stretched the governor's stands--but also reflected
how twisted is their claim their opposition is only prudent. Not so!
Their stands are politically aberrant!
Here's why: official
reports say only 2% of US Syrian refugees are prime age males; the US
resettlement program has been operating without incident for several
years; the vetting process sets priorities, overlaps and takes at
least 18 months; resettled families have US sponsors who work closely
with the families; stopping refugee entry doesn't fight terrorism;
the details, process, and empirical evidence of refugee entry and
management support no evidence of threat. Germany has accepted a
million; two million have settled in Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey--all
without incident.
Why the howling? The GOP sees Obama as the
real threat--not the refugees! Cruz, Trump and others say so! The GOP
pushes mightily against the President on issues from personal to
policy, purely for politics. Every challenge has been presented on a
platter and pillar of fear and mistrust. It has become so ridiculous
that the Roanoke, Virginia mayor cited the shameful Japanese
internment as an compelling national example.
The GOP is creating shibboleths blaming the victims of terrorism in order to attack and undercut the President--against the evidence!--but is willing to allow watchlisted US residents to buy guns (no background checks!); nor did the GOP block Saudi citizens from entry after 9/11. Its candidates and governors continue to weaken American values (a prime mission of terrorists!) by proposing actions that aid global terrorist recruitment and raise terrorists morale by giving the appearance that the long arms of their campaign is working--by the mere influence of media threats and distant actions which leverage and trigger the dynamics of contradictions in US politics which aid and advance their cause, without a fight.
Refugees is a big problem around the world, especially in Europe. We understand why US is not active in receiving those people in need. Security always ranks first. How can we stop the refugees to flee from their home? Not only America but more other countries should make a joint effort to solve the problem.
Dr. Bill, thank you for your comment. I respectfully submit you are confusing different lines of development in an area with many powerful social, political, and economic forces. ISIL/ISIS growth is more accurately traced to the invasion and occupation of Iraq under Bush, whose choice for Prime Minister heightened the tensions between Kurds, Sunni, and Shia.Bush, the Iranian armed forces were dismantled which lead to a variety of armed terrorist groups, many of whom were proxies for other Arab states entering the fray. The change of regimes in Libya, Egypt, and Morocco had little to do with the rise of terrorism in Asia minor, in the north of Egypt and a continent removed. Let's not forget that Syria's Assad pounded and killed 100s of 1000s of his own citizens. His blood lust and refusal to extend rights and freedoms to his people is a far greater factor in ISIL/ISIS growth than any action (which were mostly non-actions) taken by President Obama.
stopping the refugee settlement in US is certainly a travesty of statue of liberty. traditionally GOP has been mean-spirited anyway.
however, current refugee crisis and the sudden surge of isis are indeed consequences of botched foreign policies of this administration headed by president obama and his then deputy ms clinton. It has been such a childish thinking that overthrowing dictators in libya, syria, and egypt can solve all the problems in middle east and democracy will flourish automatically in that area. We have to admit that US has been utlilized as a tool by those radical elements to destablize the otherwise peaceful region so that they can advance their destory-all-you-infidel ideology. It is US that armed isis in this process ironically. To certain degree, US is directly responsible for this refugee problem. It is right for US to shoulder that responsibility at least partially.
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