Gold, Silver, and Expert Liars
Summer 2011 - I had cashed in all my silver and one once of palladium the month previous to finance this trip. From a prone position on my friends couch in Sai Kung, Hong Kong I watched the English version of CCTV. Gold was a hot topic; the price had been going up and as more people jumped on the bandwagon, the curve grew steeper. The pictures showed hordes of Chinese people exchanging money for gold. No secret Chinese love gold. The experts were all proclaiming gold as a fantastic investment opportunity. The price hovered in the $US1,800 range. The experts said the price will top $2,000 by years end and will likely reach $2,500 !! by mid 2012. Many people were investing. Had I sold to early?
The next day the headlines read “Gold Price Crashes” – “ Biggest Decline in History” The experts were not around to explain what happened. They had cashed out. After a coordinated effort to drive the price up, they sold, reaping huge profits. I had witnessed a similar scenario in the US real estate market a few years earlier.. The experts encouraged everybody to jump into the can’t lose, invest your retirement stake, real estate market. The encouragements were ramped up. Then the market crashes… The biggest transfer of wealth in American history has happened. Transferred from normal people to the wealthiest people in the world. The "Experts" are high level Con Men who are in on the game....
If someone says: buy this, it will go up in value, and enough folks do, then it will. A self-fulfilling prophesy! The trick is to understand that eventually we run out of those folks. Take the housing market in USA. The only way to keep demand pouring in was to lend to borrowers who were increasingly less creditworthy. If you were lucky enough to make some money, then banking those gains is a smart move. However greed prevents us from doing that!
Comment