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wowzers (Andrew)
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Is the Chinese economy for real or a bubble bound to burst?

I am interested in what you think.
Thanks!

2005-12-12 11:28 AM

caringhk (O Sweetie&Me go laojia. ..)
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Why shld it burst when everyone is interested to find money!!!

If there are no large scale over development eg homes or complexes, things shld be fine. Let hope nature is kind to us that the birds are ok.

I see people like to use new products be it electronics or cosmetics!!!

Kind regards

2005-12-12 11:38 AM

alee_dodo
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The government must get harsher in curbing housing investment. It's unbelievable that so many new houses are built every year and many of them are left there vacant, but the housing prices continue its hike.

However, though overcapacity does exist in some industries, I don't think Chinese economy is for real a bubble to burst ~~~~~~ at least in the next 10 years~~

2005-12-12 03:39 PM

alee_dodo
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take a look at this. China's housing sector is really overheated.

Housing prices of 70 cities up 6.8% in Nov.
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2005-12-12 10:12

Housing prices of 70 Chinese cities rose on average 6.8 percent year on year in November this year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than October, said a report of the National Development and Reform Commission on Friday.

The report said three cities, namely Hohhot, Dalian and Shenzhen, saw the biggest increases of sales prices for newly built commercial housing in November.

In Hohhot, the capital of north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the sales price of newly built commercial housing rose by 15.7 percent, and in Dalian, a coastal city in Northeast China's Liaoning Province, the price was up 15.1 percent, while the sales price of newly built commercial houses in Shenzhen in south China rose by 10.9 percent.

Meanwhile, housing prices in 15 cities, including Shanghai, Nanjing, Guilin, Sanya, Haikou, Lanzhou and Changsha, fell after the Chinese central government adopted a slew of measures aiming to cool down the overheated property market, the report said.

2005-12-12 03:50 PM

wowzers (Andrew)
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Thank you alee_dodo

I really appreciate that you as a moderator have taken the time to join this discussion.

The incredible rate in construction is I believe, a possible factor in a future economic collapse.

What makes you think the economy is safe for "at least the next 10 years"?

What do you think might happen after "10 years"?

2005-12-12 04:27 PM

alee_dodo
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Well, I'm sure the boom in the overheated real estate is a real bubble that will burst very soon, but I don't think it will lead to the collapse of the entire economy.

As far as I know, many people predicted five years ago that the Chinese economic bubble would burst soon. However, we all see that China has been doing fairly well in sustaining the booming economic development these years. Why?

It's because of the government regulation. As Chinese President Hu said, China would take measures to cool down the economy. If the measures are resolute enough and effectively enforced, the growth will have a solft-landing, and not all players but just some in overheated industries will suffer a heavy blow.

So, the government will surely take stringent measures to curb overheating, and moderate the growth. I think it will take at least 10 years for the bubble to burst, even if it'sreally a bubble. There is still time for regulatory measures to be taken to prevent the situation from worsening~~ Anyway, we, as ordinary people, can only wait and see~ ha

[ Last edited by alee_dodo at 2005-12-12 04:55 PM ]

2005-12-12 04:52 PM

freeman (freeman)
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Actually, the economy needs some bubbles to keep fresh and moving

Though there is probably some hidden bubbles in China's overall economy, housing industry, esp, I don't think it will burst to pieces. Otherwise, like the beer we drink each summer day, the economy needs bubbles ( but not too many) to keep it fresh, and powering ahead.

And, housing sector, like automotives, is a major growth point in every developed economy, like HK, Like the united states. I will suggest the government to oversee the annual price growth of housing at a level

in tandem with China's GDP rise, about 9%, and that will be healthy!

Exceeding 12% a year would be heated, 15% or more will be over-heated; less than 5% would mean a cool-down of China's consumption market, and the overall economy.

I expect that more and more Middle Class households in China's cities will buy more housing, autos, and other daily goods, to support the economy keeping going....

that is my wish.

[ Last edited by freeman at 2005-12-12 06:57 PM ]

2005-12-12 06:55 PM

greendragon
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Bubbles creates demand...makes people spend money!!!!!!

The NEW MIDDLE KINGDOM is unique...it has two component...

a large Mandarin speaking, a equal size dialect speaking (mandarin literate) opposite. There are large supercenters in each half.....bubbles bursting in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore is balanced by new bubbles in Shanghai, Shenzen and Kuala Lumpur....

There is no "large scale" collapse....

no doubt, predatorial powers using various "kongfu" will try...ranging from biovector, inter racial riots, food poisoning, water poisoning, tourist safety, port or supercenter sabotage etc. etc.

but in total..the NEW MIDDLE KINGDOM is such a large entity...that it is ENERGETIC, LIFELIER that other parts of the world except the EUROPEAN SUPERGROUP, HISPANIC SUPERGROUP...etc.

China must realise, MONOLITHISM will cause trouble....rich will become too rich..as simplification, monotony is the end result....look at the MACDONALDization of the United States..only the Hispanics can save them now!!!!!

cheerios!

fm
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Lord of the code

Council of Malaya

2005-12-13 01:27 PM

chairman (chairman)
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Is the Chinese economy for real or a bubble bound to burst?

Hello Wowzers, hope and trust you are " BOTH " well.........

Very good posts in here.......

I do not think the BUBBLE will BURST.....I agree much with Green Dragon.....

But I also agree that the BUILDING / HOUSING is VERY over Heated.........

I agree with much of what I read here.........

But that does not mean a BUBBLE BURST.......

The 70-30 is the largest single problem........

But..........

If it was 20-40-40 then that would work..............

We shall see..........but China is stronger than many in the west think she is......

They use, they equate.......with western ideals and it will not wash........

Time will tell........

I bet China pulls it off..........all of it........

Stay well wowzers.......and thanks for the many kind words......I read them all........

[ Last edited by chairman at 2005-12-14 06:02 AM ]

2005-12-14 05:59 AM

freeman (freeman)
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Dear Chairman,

you said that China is stronger than many in the west think she is. Hopefully you are right.
But many conservatives and scholars in the United States have serious query with Chinese economy. Are these people genuinely afraid of sth, or they simply want to see China down?
p.s. I am curious why you choose china's national flag as your emblem?

With Best Regards to you,

keep happy

2005-12-14 01:06 PM

#10

chairman (chairman)
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Very best regards too you Freeman..

Dear Freeman, long time no see..........

She is stronger than the west thinks she is........very strong....

She is also very smart, full of intelligence and fortunate to be well governed....so far....

Freeman wrote "But many conservatives and scholars in the United States have serious query with Chinese economy. Are these people genuinely afraid of sth, or they simply want to see China down? "

I think there is no room for doubt, that FEAR drives people to do all kinds of things and say all kinds of things.........The United States can not and will not, allow China to win.....however...China will win and the USA will have to attach herself to China to stay afloat...which is in the best interest of China anyway...a destroyed USA does nothing to help China.........it has often been said....sometimes by very great men...that it will be China that saves the United States from herself.....

I agree with that.....I always have.....the USA needs China more than China needs the USA....

China and the USA are more close than at first glance to see.........

China works hard and has suffered much....she will win....history dictates she will....

These people who constantly look for fault in her.....who have a deep desire to PUSH her down...or PULL her down..........or even subvert her.........do what they must......it is the way of the modern Barbarian....but in the end.....China will win.....

" p.s. I am curious why you choose china's national flag as your emblem? "

mmm.....it is not my emblem...it is the emblem of the motherland.....it is the emblem of China....it is in my emails....in my cards...in my entire life......as one who finds no fault in China....as one who always see's two sides....the China side and the side against China....

it was the logical choice.....the best option available to me........I should also say that I think it would have been expected of me.....on my walls are paintings of Chairman Mao.....Chinese Flags...paintings with Mist and Rivers and Mountains on high.....of village scenes...of carved furniture.......in the midle of the room is a Tea Table of one solid tree....18 men to transport in here....
this room is very pretty.....100% Chinese...........anyone who has been in this room...would expect to see the Chinese Flag attached to it.....mmm...it is a mighty flag.....it is a mighty country....it is a magnificent land of fantastic and talented people....who deserve better and will work to get better........

What other flag could I possibly have chosen.....

?

Good to see you Freeman....advanced seasons greetings......all at once...

You stay well...be happy....great fortune to you and good health.......

[ Last edited by chairman at 2005-12-14 01:38 PM ]

2005-12-14 01:31 PM

#11

freeman (freeman)
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thanks

Thank you, mr. Chairman. It is always great to talk with you.

Merry Christmas to you, and your family ( now in south China?)

2005-12-16 12:01 PM

#12

hanlei (Magic)
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NEW MIDDLE KINGDOM ?

Greendragon, what is the NEW MIDDLE KINGDOM? sounds strange to Chinese.

2005-12-16 04:49 PM

#13

caringhk (O Sweetie&Me go laojia. ..)
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Reply #13 hanlei's post

You know ancient time - Tiongkok, the middle country

2005-12-16 05:38 PM

#14

chairman (chairman)
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Dear Freeman.......

" ( now in south China?) "

Yes, Sir.......Guangdong.....

Stay well Freeman....

2005-12-17 12:05 AM

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tekvicious (Hybrid Theory)
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Chairman. To be taken seriously you've got to stop assigning a plot of land this mystical personality. It's just a plot of land that has borders defined by the people that have politically segmented themselves from others. Calling it 'she' and so-forth is ridiculous.
China is riding a bubble...a giant export bubble. The domestic market must grow and the world is helping hold the bubble together till China's home market can help in a proportion fitting of a developed country.
The populace(rich or poor) is largely unsure of what to do with their earnings. The old people save it and urge the young to do the same. The young wish to blow it as fast as possible andoften on the stupidest things possible. There are a lot of old people and they hold great sway over the young. Saving is a great idea in matters of personal finance, but as a nation, you need as much spending as possible. This is China's quandry. Spend or save??
With a 5th of the worlds population in hand you can't expect that everyone here has a good job making stuff for export...and this seems to be the problem. The world can't buy forever...there's just simply not enough people. China will be hastened to the next level of development (by fate) very soon, and it will be painful.
It is not that we wish any harm to come to the people here, we just see where it will go.
If you don't ...the just remember that LOGIC is an imported word in Chinese.

2005-12-17 10:19 AM

#16

freeman (freeman)
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I won't consider export as a bubble for China

Hi, tekvicious. Chinese-made goods,  now apparel, electronics, etc, (could be followed by autos, planes, and hitech gears in the coming years) are welcome in the world market, so I won't consider this country face an export bubble in at least a decade.  Because the quality and price of Chinese-made goods,  they will continue to dominate the world trade market. (that is one of the reasons China joined the WTO in 2001, and now a world leader and major pusher in persuading worldwide free trade ).

Sure, china's domestic consumption is rising, too. National Statistical Bureau will report 2005's retail surging more than 12.5% over 2004, which is not a small growth, right?  And I am quite sure, the figure will keep rising as the wages of urbanities are rising, too.

In addition to exports and domestic consumption, China has another pillar to bolster rapid economic growth, and that is government investment into infrastructure sectors.  Now, expressways are crisscrossing the whole country, bridges are being built acorss the country's major rivers, and linking coastal islands, airports are being expanded, and railways renovated.  The central government is calling on more investment into rural county towns, to build up a " New and Modern Countryside,"  that will be greatly improve the farmers' life.

BTW, the chinese government is advised by a group of wise, and far-sighted professionals,  scholars, economists, and strategists. Don't look down upon this group of people,  who are doing their research work both at home and abroad.

[ Last edited by freeman at 2005-12-18 12:08 AM ]

2005-12-18 12:02 AM

#17

new-york
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Yes Freeman, well said.

I am just a bit amazed at tekvicious. I will of course tell you why.

As I see it, chairman says hello to freeman, freeman says hello to chairman, freeman asks where chairman is, chairman says Guangdong and then tekvicious attacks over the gender of landmass.

Did I miss something, I will go and read it all again. Merry Xmas freeman.

2005-12-18 12:27 AM

#18

tekvicious (Hybrid Theory)
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Haha NewYork...you must be new. Welcome...
the problem is that as China make better products (it is inevitable) the products last longer and (gasp) cost more. It will reach a happy balance...the domestic market however must change substancially. Also, the import laws must change to allow two way trade...or shortly trade will slow down and or stop. Trade imbalances are in nobodies interests in the long run.

2005-12-18 04:54 PM

#19

freeman (freeman)
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We must respect and thank China's workers

actually it is the tens of millions of Chinese workers (many former farmers from the land) who create the present-day world economic prosperity.

These workers are working day and night,  usually 10 hours a day, 7 days a week, and they are willing to take to home a wage,  less than one 10th of their american and european counterparts.

And the inexpensive exports of their-made products are relieving the inflation pressure of the United States, and at the same time increased the buying power of  the american, european, Japanese, Australian, Canadian consumers.

Will the Bush government dislike chinese cheap products, (worrying about the trade deficit) and shut it door to imports of Chinese goods?

Greenspan is not stupid, either many american economists.

Merry Xmas to you all, my dear friends.

[ Last edited by freeman at 2005-12-18 05:44 PM ]

2005-12-18 05:40 PM

#20

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