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Subject: A central task for China on her 55th birthday
 
wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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Welcome back and congrats, guys. Gong dao zi zhai ren xin

I did not initiate any attacks.

The Zionist gang attacked me suddenly and without warning from all sides.

The problem of Palestine is the focus of this debate.

Please note that I am pushing forward on behalf of the Palestinian Arabs.

Ghosts, don't compare yourself with me -- that would be such a cruel joke.

I know less than nothing and you know everything -- so how can we compare at all?

The reason we are talking about Palestine is because there is such a thing called "universality of human justice" in this world.

If what obtains in Palestine can be forgiven or forgotten -- with the Zionists ignoring all warnings and resolutions of the UN General Assembly, literally in defiance of the whole world -- then Japan can do likewise in East Asia vis-à-vis China and Korea.

That's one of the major reasons why I had concentrated on this topic the last few days, and you Zionists just can't stomach it because it goes like a dagger into your devilish bosom.

Zionism is the greatest evil in the world today, with Zionists controlling most of the world's media and hence their rights to interpret the world's events for the general public.

I have explained very clearly to the public the dangers of Zionism. That obviously has struck fear and discomfort into the bosoms of many of the detractors here.

If I had been on the side of Zionism and talked a hundred times as dirty as the trolls do, you wouldn't have minded at all.

Like I said, go to take a nap and then you can start comparing yourself with me -- only in your dreams.

We aren't the same class of people and very different in our Weltanchauung or world outlook.

Just remember one thing -- you know EVERYTHING and I know LESS THAN NOTHING.

Satisfied?

_________________


The army of ghosts of the banned schizophrenic clown calling himself "chairman" and his troupe of theatrical gangsters, mobsters and 18th-holers here at CD have failed to budge wchao37!

Why?

That's because it's a vindication of the timeless truism "de dao duo zhu, ce dao gua zhu” -- a cause enjoys wide support if it is righteous, and fetches little if it isn't.

These vermins are derelicts, dregs or an effete remnant of a fading era in the post-modern world, and since they are still hanging onto their Cold War mentality, their self-image will continue to be trolls-in-the-mirror in the throes of a death-bed struggle.

If the entire global anti-China cacophony can be likened to a dysfunctional vascular system in septic shock, the boisterous crowds here at CD are bacterial colonies hanging around the edges of capillaries.

Needless to say, no one gives a darn as to the comings and goings of these trolls since they are such anachronistic butts of jokes.

In fact, their self-acknowledged defeat today is the first time pro-China elements in any forum have prevailed in any online political struggle – ever, and I have been around these cyber-premises long enough to understand its significance.

This is the first time that we are witnessing true forum equality on a level playing field. Previously, our posts were proctored by moderators with an attitude heavily biased towards Western values and their corresponding use of double standards in such proctering.

It is a reflection of China's own progress and willingness to go the extra mile to get at the truth or the bottomline through debates instead of simply acquiescing or reaching inscrutable conclusions based on the use of such double standards.

In this sense, the results of this new single standard have been as fair as could reasonably be expected because detractors can no longer assume that they are going to prevail just because English is their mother tongue.

Without vanquishing these vermins, one can hardly expect our "tree roots" to be able to sustain their growth penetrating deep into the soil. Can anyone imagine this place growing in the presence of termites around the premises?

Before CD came along, no Chinese could write even one pro-China post in any of the major Western forums without fear of reprisal. Here in contrast, we have dealt each of our guests the same hospitality card and treated everyone with equality without prejudice, and only misfits with ulterior motives could have come up with a different conclusion. They are complaining because the playing field has been leveled and they are not used to the new rules based on uniform and not double standards.

Yes, one needs to understand that until the recent past the Western concept of “equality” was actually based on double standards, with these nincompoops assuming that free and complete access to their interpretation of current affairs should be made available to the global audience, but not vice versa. The foreigner has to be extremely circumspect in posting his material in their forums, but such respectful demeanor was never reciprocated by these English-speaking forum hooligans.

Presently in our case here they have misconstrued our courtesy and tolerance as weakness and their extended stay a right and not a privilege.

So they just keep on disrupting forum activities if they do not have their way. Shanhuang had given us a good record of all the handles that this lonesome schizophrenic jester has been using to disrupt the forum, and eventually he is going to drown in his own urinal not knowing how deep the water is.

To these vermin, I say:

Good riddance.

You should apologize for your misbehavior while you were here.

This forum will be that much better without the motley of rubbish-consuming flies heaping near the top every day, doing absolutely nothing constructive, and threatening the mods or even holding them hostage to their own words by falsifying their well-meaning announcements.

Now you see that this so called pro-China "No Dogs, no Chinese, chopsticks as one with a Zionist at its head" vermin has finally come out and shown us his true face -- none of the so-called jackals of his in this forum was really his opponent. He is actually clamoring for them to continue their disruptive antics, and so all this time he had actually been one of them and was just pretending to be one of us.

When they were banned one after another for violations right and left they should have just left these premises if they had any self-respect, but because of the specific limitations of our software capabilities they have been able to stay as ghosts in this forum doing nothing except causing disruptions.

When was the last time these misfits had written any original post on major topics of politics?

When was the last time this crappy 18th-hole jester had shown remorse for any of the disturbances he had caused?

When was the last time any of them had appreciated the difficult task of moderating without prejudice?

It's he who is begging to stay around.

No one gives a darn where he goes after his dismissal as a persona non-grata.

No Western forum ever allowed even a miniscule fraction of the disturbance he is causing here.

I advise him not to try to be melodramatic and exploit the good-natured hospitality of our hosts to play the role of victims when it is obvious he is the true victimizer.

Yes, I will counter-attack whenever I am attacked by the mendicants of this forum.

Who says a Chinese man cannot counter-attack when attacked by the entire army of gypsies like them?

These vermin aren't worth a kopek and it's high time they leave us.

Go!!!
2005-4-12 04:09 PM#201
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wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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This is one U.S. neocon view on "deterring a Chinese attack on Taiwan."

By Richard D. Fisher, Jr. Asian Security Fellow, Center for Security Policy

(Washington, D.C.): With the reelection of President Chen Shui Bian and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) led government, Taiwan takes a significant step toward consolidating its democracy, but Chen's victory is also likely to cause Communist China to intensify its preparations for war. To avoid what could be a very hot war on the Taiwan Strait, President George Bush should focus greater and more urgent attention on what is required to deter a Chinese attack on Taiwan. As the U.S. Department of Defense has noted in its annual reports on Chinese military modernization, the main goal of this effort is to build a capability needed to wage war against Taiwan, and if needed, the United States. It is possible that such an attack may come as early as one to three years from now barring either an unforeseen diplomatic breakthrough or a radical change in priorities for the Communist government in Beijing.

For Beijing, the reelection of Chen heralds a decisive shift in Taiwan public sentiment against "reunification," the fulfillment of which is a key pillar of legitimacy for the Beijing regime. Beijing has given its People's Liberation Army (PLA) a decisive role to play in fulfilling the goal of "reunification." Thwarting Beijing's plans are essential for U.S. national security interests. These interests are reflected in the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and remain valid today: the future of Taiwan should not be settled by armed force but by peaceful means. If the PRC succeeds in militarily conquering Taiwan then the U.S. would quickly lose its power position in Asia. Starting late in the Clinton Administration, the U.S. began to understand the looming PLA threat to Taiwan and began a process of closer engagement with Taipei. In 2001 this process was accelerated by the Bush Administration, especially to promote sorely needed military reforms by Taiwan.

But in Taiwan since 2001, military reform has been fraught with political and financial issues, but Chen's reelection now brings more urgency to this task. The Chen Administration, with quiet advice from Washington, has sought to consolidate new Air Force and Navy capabilities. However, a looming PLA threat makes it essential that the U.S. work with Taiwan to increase Taiwan Army and local defense capabilities as well. In addition, the U.S. should also seek to sell Taiwan very new but promising military technologies that could give Taiwan some key asymmetrical advantages that would strengthen deterrence in the next two years. Finally, Washington must revisit the unfulfilled 2001 Quadrennial Review and significantly improve the U.S. force posture in Asia to deter a PRC attack on Taiwan. Ten steps that Taipei and Washington can do to increase Taiwan's ability to deter a Chinese attack are as follows:


1. Washington should suggest strongly to Taipei that it implement achievable and affordable reforms that serve to strengthen confidence in their military forces to survive initial attack: build better leadership survival capabilities; new survivable C4ISR system; new and many shelters for weapons; strengthen existing shelters; strengthen the NCO corps and greatly increase attractiveness of military service.
2. The U.S. also should suggest to Taipei that it strengthen its civil defense capabilities and defense-in-depth capabilities. This will require strengthening its Reserve forces and their ability to mobilize and join regular army units, or to defend local municipalities. Reserve force weapon stockpiles should also be updated to better enable conduct anti-armor and anti-air operations. Taipei should institute national high school level rudimentary military and emergency medical training.

3. Washington should urge Taiwan to implement as soon as possible new national security laws that protect secret information and allow for proper security screening for all personnel with access to classified information.

4. The U.S. should sell Taiwan either a limited number of ballistic missiles or cruise missiles, or technology to make them. These are needed to build an effective "offensive" capability that can pre-empt an imminent Chinese offensive strike. Sales options should include a 300km range version of the JASSM cruise missile or the ATACMS SRBM. A total "defensive" doctrine for Taiwan is no longer able to sustain deterrence.

5. Urge Taiwan to follow thru quickly on intentions to purchase Patriot PAC 3 anti-missile missiles. But in addition, the U.S. should encourage Taiwan to invest in specific energy-defense weapon development in the U.S. that can later be sold to Taiwan.

6. Urge Taiwan to invest in a series of unmanned aircraft for several purposes, to include high-altitude surveillance and communication nodes, and medium range precision attack. These UAVs should have the main task of finding and attacking PLA SAM sites that will severely restrict Taiwan Air Force defense operations.

7. Taiwan Army modernization is now as essential a component of deterrence as is Air Force and Navy modernization. The U.S. should sell Taiwan a small number of 120mm gun-armed M1A2 main battle tanks. These are needed to deter new and very capable PLA tanks equipped with Russian 125mm guns and Russian gun-launched anti-tank missiles. But more important, the U.S. should sell Taiwan modern 105mm guns to arm a new series of more mobile indigenous wheeled armored infantry fighting vehicles. The U.S. should also suggest that Taiwan also accelerate the purchase of additional attack helicopters.

8. Suggest that Taiwan work with Washington to investigate the purchase of some a new Russian series of very small but capable submarines that should offer significant life-time savings over current conventional submarines. In addition, Taiwan should be urged to rapidly purchase used Lockheed P-3 Orion or S-3 Viking anti-submarine patrol aircraft.

9. Sell Taiwan the AIM-9X helmet display sighted air-to-air missile to confer a balance with the Russian R-73 helmet-sighted AAMs that arm PLAAF Su-27 and Su-30 fighters.

10. Create a new private firm that can facilitate "virtual" training for the Taiwan armed forces with experienced foreign military personnel. Such personnel should be hired to perform in globally distributed combat simulators linked to similar simulators in Taiwan.

STRENGTHENING THE U.S. DETERRENT POSTURE IN ASIA

In September 2001 the new Pentagon leadership under Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld issued a Quadrennial Defense Review that made recommendations to increase the deterrent posture of U.S. forces in Asia. Soon overtaken by the requirements of the War on Terrorism, and then the War in Iraq, the Bush Administration has been unable to fulfill these requirements, which included: increasing the presence of U.S. carrier battle groups; strengthening U.S. Air Force air support units; and increasing East Asian area training for Marine forces. The Bush Administration has increased U.S. forces stationed at Guam to three nuclear attack submarines and 12 B-52 bombers. The requirements to support possible military action in support of Taiwan, or against North Korea, however, now mean that it is time to devote new military resources to Asia. Six steps that the U.S. can take would include:


1. Increase the number of in-region combat strike forces that can be used over a Taiwan theater within 12 hours of a clear warning of imminent PLA attack. This will require that the U.S. increase the number of cruise missile-armed SSNs patrolling the Western Pacific and that it make this region the first deployment priority for new Trident SSGNs. The U.S. should also increase the number of F-15C squadrons deployed to Okinawa from two to four, and deploy B-1 bombers, E-2 AWACS, KC-135 refueling and C-17 transport aircraft to Guam. In addition, the U.S. should deploy new F/A-22 air superiority fighters to Guam as soon as possible. These are especially needed to put in theater a U.S. fighter that will be decisively superior to the 300+ Russian Sukhoi Su-27/Su-30 fighters the PLA Air Force may have by 2005. It is also critical to significantly increase the production of all cruise missiles and precision-guided munitions.
2. Washington should also increase U.S. military assets designed to protect its forces in Asia. It is imperative that the U.S. deploy THAAD missiles to Okinawa and Guam to protect against the PLA's highly accurate DF-21C and DF-15 Mod 1 medium-range missiles. If THAAD cannot be made available quickly, then the U.S. should consider the purchase of Israeli ARROW missile interceptors. The U.S. must also redouble security around all its forces based in Asia to protect against 5th column or PLA Special Forces attacks. There should be heightened protective measures for U.S. forces in Hawaii, Alaska and the U.S. West Coast that may also be used in the event of a Taiwan conflict.

3. The looming possibility of a war to preserve freedom on Taiwan also means that the U.S. will have to rapidly increase the number of missiles devoted to the mission of National Missile Defense (NMD). China is now increasing the number of long-range missiles, and could have at least 60 new ICBMS and 64 SLBMs in service by 2010. The PLA is also increasing the penetration capability of these missiles, precisely to counter U.S. NMD, and thus, to sustain its ability to threaten the U.S. with nuclear attack if it decides to help defend freedom on Taiwan. An effective National Missile Defense for the United States capable of defeating PLA ICBMs is therefore, a major requirement for the U.S. to come to Taiwan's defense with confidence.

4. The U.S. should consider immediate investments that would increase the ability of the U.S. Navy to defend against a rapidly growing number of effective PLA nuclear and non-nuclear attack submarines. The PLA could have 50 modern and near-modern submarines by 2010, to include three new SSNs, 27 new SSKs plus about 18 older SSKs and three older SSNs. The U.S. Navy should consider the rapid improvement of its anti-submarine capabilities, to include re-activating 5-10 retired Spruance class destroyers to improve its deep-ocean ASW capability. The Navy should also consider re-activating the anti-submarine warfare capability on 4 squadrons of Lockheed S-3 Viking carrier-based ASW aircraft-a capability that was removed in 1999.

5. The U.S. should mount a concerted diplomatic campaign to convince allies like Japan and the Philippines that a PRC attack on Taiwan poses a direct threat to their national security, and thus, should work with the U.S. to deter China. Japan should be asked to provide air and naval combat support for U.S. forces and the Philippines should be asked to provide basing, in the event of an emergency. In addition, the U.S. and the Philippines should begin extensive cooperation in the training of Airborne forces, to include major bi-lateral exercises in the Philippines and the U.S.

6. Finally, the U.S. should begin a public education campaign in Asia and Europe to highlight China's threat to democratic Taiwan, making clear that if China chooses to wage war on Taiwan, it will also be declaring its long-term hostility to every other civilized democratic society. The U.S. should make clear that China does not have the right to settle its differences with Taiwan by war. The U.S. should mount a far louder campaign to convince Europe not lift its Tiananmen-related arms embargo against China-which it may do before this summer. And Washington should begin now to plan to lead a total global economic embargo against China whether it wins or loses a war against Taiwan.
2005-4-18 02:55 PM#202
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wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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Is Pentagon Fuelling Tensions in Taiwan Strait?

By David M. Lampton

Very recently, United States National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice was in Beijing for tough talks with China's leaders about Taiwan.

China's continued build-up of missiles beyond the 500 already near the island is an undeniable problem. But US President George W. Bush and Ms Rice face almost as big an obstacle in producing stability in the Taiwan Strait nearer to home - the Pentagon.

The Pentagon's senior political appointees and their acolytes in the Defence Department's (DoD) planning and intelligence structures have an inexhaustible capacity to generate dangerous ideas, the latest of which concerns Taiwan.

In its late May 'Report to Congress on PRC Military Power', the DoD seemingly endorses the view that the island should present 'credible threats to China's urban population or high-value targets, such as the Three Gorges Dam', to deter Chinese military coercion against the island. At another point, the report says: 'Asymmetric capabilities that Taiwan possesses or is acquiring could deter a Chinese attack by making it unacceptably costly.'

Offensive deterrence is a terrible idea for Taiwan. Were Taipei to launch such an attack on the mainland it almost assuredly would lead to the destruction of the island as we know it. Moreover, this approach is entirely inconsistent with the rest of the Bush administration's effort to de-escalate cross-Strait tensions.

I was in Taiwan recently, spoke with various high-level officials, and came away believing that there is debate over whether or not to acquire the ability to take Chinese cities and high-value targets hostage. Indeed, Taiwan already is developing the ballistic and cruise missile capabilities that suggest such a policy may already have been adopted.

Some Taiwan officials with whom I spoke mentioned 'fighting a war without mercy' and the need to 'cost effectively deter' China from coercing the island. Other more sober analysts realised that, given China's enormity, any conventional strike by Taiwan would only infuriate a nuclear Beijing and rain terror upon the island.

China is a very large sponge for any such attacks, while Taiwan's ability to absorb even conventional strikes is relatively small. Whatever Taiwan's offensive capabilities may be, they are far less than China's - and the disparity will only grow worse over time.

Consequently, for the Pentagon to weigh-in on behalf of a misguided strategy is irresponsible, not the least because it puts a hair-trigger on an already delicate situation. As one former senior Taiwan official recently put it to me, 'This is the worst, to talk about an offensive strategy that inflames Beijing when you don't have the capacity to implement it.'

Beyond Pentagon encouragement, why is Taiwan moving in such a dangerous direction? It is doing so because China is building the capacity to deliver a quick military stroke to the island before the US could respond effectively; Taiwan's land army still inappropriately dominates the island's defence in a naval, air force and missile age; its military services are poorly coordinated with one another; and its citizens and leaders do not wish to spend the necessary resources on their own defence, while at the same time they refuse to accept Beijing's 'one-China principle' as a basis for negotiation.

In short, those advocating offensive deterrence are seeking the cheap way to seem to be doing something while avoiding making hard budgetary or political decisions. They jeopardise the island's survival and increase the odds of conflict that could embroil America. Indeed, in moving in offensive directions, Taipei could well provide Beijing a pretext for preemption.

Oddly, the DoD's apparent support for an offensive deterrent in Taiwan runs counter to the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act that mandates that only defensive weapons be transferred to Taipei. By encouraging the acquisition of offensive capabilities, the Pentagon's actions may run contrary to the law - certainly its spirit.

In this case, as so many others, we see that Mr Bush is so preoccupied with Iraq that he lets other problems fester. We see a president that is ineffective in controlling the Pentagon and a National Security Council that does not adequately coordinate policy.

And, in this case, as others, the law seems only a slight impediment to behaviour.

The very inconsistency of DoD's position with the effort to obtain Beijing's cooperation in the war on terror and with respect to North Korea raises many questions, among which are: Where is the National Security Council as the guarantor of consistency and where is the President as guardian of his own policy? Mr Bush needs to assert himself with a Pentagon that will follow his China policy only if explicitly ordered to do so.


(The writer is Hyman professor and director of China Studies at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and director of Chinese Studies at The Nixon Centre. He is former president of the national committee on US-China relations in New York and author of Same Bed, Different Dreams: Managing US-China Relations 1989-2000).
2005-4-18 03:30 PM#203
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wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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The other U.S. view -- "Washington simply cannot afford a clash in the Taiwan St

by Bonnie S. Glaser

On the surface, it appears that China, Taiwan, and the
United States share the same objective of preserving the status
quo in the Taiwan Strait. The problem is that all three have
different definitions of the status quo. Beijing insists that
Taiwan is part of China. The legitimacy of its regime is
intertwined with preventing Taiwan from gaining juridical
stature as a sovereign country. Taipei views itself as an
independent, sovereign nation and is seeking to make that
status irreversible, unless the people on the island vote
otherwise in a referendum. The U.S. has a “one China” policy
and insists that differences between the two sides of the Strait
be worked out peacefully, lest the U.S. be compelled to
become involved militarily under obligations stipulated in the
Taiwan Relations Act.

The status quo is thus in dispute and is unstable. The
danger of military conflict is present and may be increasing.
Since being re-elected for a second term, President Chen Shuibian
has reaffirmed his pledge to hold a referendum in 2006 on
a new constitution that would be enacted in May 2008.

Washington is not likely to object to a new Taiwan
constitution that promotes more effective governance, as long
as it is formulated and adopted through legal mechanisms and
does not seek to unilaterally resolve the dispute over
sovereignty. China strongly opposes a new constitution for
Taiwan because it could break the continuity of the Republic
of China and represent the founding of a new Taiwanese state.

Beijing’s redlines are not unalterable, however. China might
not overreact to the enactment of a new constitution, even one
that is approved by a referendum, if the preamble and articles
I-VI of the current document which address the ROC’s name,
geographic boundaries, and its relationship to China are left
largely intact.

Frustration on the mainland is rising with a policy toward
Taiwan that many Chinese view as too soft. China has shown
considerable restraint in the past year in the face of what it
judged as repeated provocations, including the passage of a
referendum law by Taiwan’s legislature and the holding of the
first referendum simultaneous with the recent presidential
election. Beijing’s relatively relaxed approach was premised
on an expectation that Chen would be replaced by the pan-
Blue forces. Chen’s re-election has alarmed Beijing and stoked
a fierce debate over what mix of policies will prevent Taiwan
from permanently severing its ties with the mainland.
Voices in China favoring the use of military force to
compel Taipei to halt its movement toward juridical
independence are growing louder. They say doing so is
imperative to disprove Taiwan’s claim that China is a paper
tiger that doesn’t dare to use force because it would risk an allout
war with the U.S. Some Chinese even believe that there is
sufficient concern in Washington about Chen’s actions and his
future agenda that the U.S. may acquiesce in a limited use of
force by the PLA – for example, to seize an offshore island,
temporarily impose a limited blockade, or fire a lone missile at
a military target on Taiwan.

Those in China who question the advisability of relying on
military means to warn Taipei of the dangers of going too far
may be losing ground in this debate. Proponents of using
economic levers to attract Taiwan toward political integration
with the mainland have lost credibility as cross-Strait trade has
flourished while failing to bridge the political divide. Even
though over half a million Taiwan businessmen have
established residences on the mainland, this has not stemmed
the growth of a separate Taiwan consciousness. Now that over
half of Taiwan’s electorate cast votes for Chen who ran on an
anti-China platform, there is growing doubt about pinning
hopes on the Taiwan people and Taiwan’s business
community to preserve a political link with the Chinese
motherland. Beijing now worries that in the wake of its
astonishing loss, the pan-Blue opposition will splinter and lose
its majority in the legislative elections slated for December.
As China’s confidence wanes in Taiwan’s internal checks
that might curb momentum toward de jure independence,
Beijing is increasingly looking to the U.S. to rein in President
Chen. The Chinese hope that Washington will pressure Taipei
to back down from its plan to create a new constitution. They
also seek to establish a broader understanding with the Bush
administration on what steps by Taipei would constitute a
provocation and how the U.S. and China would respond
separately or jointly if those agreed-upon red lines were
crossed.

Is Washington likely to cooperate with Beijing to avert a
crisis in the Taiwan Strait? Surely this will not be the Bush
administration’s preferred option. Siding with a communist
country against a democracy would draw fire from
Republicans and Democrats alike. President Bush is no doubt
peeved at Chen for disregarding his calls to back down from
holding a referendum, but he would probably find distasteful
the notion of collaborating with the nation that he once termed
American’s strategic competitor against the 22 million people
on Taiwan whom he promised early in his presidency that he
would do “whatever it took” to help defend themselves against
a mainland attack.

Instead, the U.S. is working primarily on its own to
compel Taiwan to refrain from actions that will further incite
cross-Strait tensions. The message to Taiwan to cool it has
become clearer and louder in recent weeks. In testimony to
Congress on April 21, Assistant Secretary of State James
Kelly noted that it would be irresponsible for Taiwan to treat
Chinese statements on the possible use of force as empty
threats. He also noted that there are limits on what the U.S.
will support as Taiwan considers changing its constitution.

Kelly called on President Chen to be responsible, democratic,
and restrained. He also reminded Taiwan that U.S. support is
not a blank check to resist dialogue with the mainland.
Washington expects Chen to enunciate a clear vision of
Taiwan’s future relationship with the mainland in his May 20
inaugural address and offer a roadmap for realizing that goal.
While admonishing Taipei, the U.S. is taking steps to
reassure Beijing that it will oppose efforts by Taipei to
unilaterally sever Taiwan from the mainland and will not
recognize Taiwan as an independent country. At the same
time, U.S. officials are publicly and privately stating that the
use of force under any circumstances will not be
countenanced. In addition, they continue to prod China to take
steps to reduce its military threat to Taiwan. Calls for
implementing military confidence building measures to reduce
the likelihood of miscalculation or misunderstanding leading
to conflict – not heard from U.S. officials since the late 1990s
– are again in vogue.

The new hands-on approach to managing cross-Strait
relations is a significant shift from the laissez-faire attitude
that marked the first 2½ years of Bush administration policy
toward cross-Strait relations. The shift is both welcome and
necessary. The U.S. must be more actively engaged in
preventive diplomacy in the Taiwan Strait. The stakes are
high. Washington simply cannot afford a clash in the Taiwan
Strait.

Bonnie S. Glaser is a senior associate at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. and at
the Pacific Forum, CSIS. She can be reached at
bglaser6@comcast.net
2005-4-18 04:56 PM#204
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wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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为什么日本捱了美国的原子弹但依然敬重美国，而中国对日本侵略的宽恕包容，日本却嗤之

香港明报4月14日发表钟国仁撰写的题为“日本的不健康心态与中日纠纷”评论，指出日本靖国神社宣扬的是敬重强者、鄙视弱者的“大和魂” ，尽管日本捱了美国的原子弹但依然敬重美国，而中国对日本侵略的宽恕包容，日本却嗤之以鼻，因为从“大和魂”的角度看，落后固然要捱打，忍让同样要捱打，他们不会因为中国的厚道宽怀而尊重中国人。评论希望日本重视三个事实，一是不管他们喜欢不喜欢中国，中国将永远是他们的近邻，他们何必要为自己制造一个紧张的邻居关系？二是中国民族复兴事业，是一定会出现的，出现后对世界的影响，也将是巨大而积极的，因此日本没有必要为中国要实现民族振兴而过分担心，乃至采取措施去破坏这个进程。三是不论日本心理上如何想“脱亚入欧”，他们种族上作为黄种人的事实是改变不了的。自己明明是黄种人，但受到的教育却恰恰是否定黄种人，这不令自己痛苦死才怪。

　　在中日关系上，中国对日政策可以说是仁至义尽。战后从蒋介石的“以德报怨”方针，到毛泽东的“严格区分日本军国主义和日本人民”的政策，可见不论国共两党，中国人民都对日本的侵华罪行采取了宽恕包容的态度，不但主动放弃战争赔偿，而且倡导两国人民要“世世代代友好下去”。为了播下世代友好的和平种子，中共前总书记胡耀邦更有邀请3000日本青年访华之创举。姑不论此举实际效果如何，中国希望与这个邻邦建立睦邻友好关系之情溢于言表。

　　令人遗憾的是，日本对中国的橄榄枝并不领情。这也许是我们对日本民族性缺乏足够的了解，很多时自作多情地单方面讨好日本，“将心比心”地以为这样日本就会相应采取友好姿态。但结果我们失望了。笔者有时候很不解地问日本朋友，为什么你们捱了美国两只原子弹，至今仍然被迫接受美国变相的军事占领(美国自战后至今一直在日本驻军)，却甘心对美国俯首称臣，但对宽恕了你们长达100多年的侵略罪行(从甲午战争开始算)的中国，却连一句象样的道歉都如此吝啬。

　　笔者对这个问题一直不解，直到参观(当然不是参拜)了靖国神社，特别是该神社内的“游就馆”，算是了解了什么是“大和魂”，才知道日本民族敬重强者、鄙视弱者的民族心理，令他们可以捱了原子弹后依然敬重美国(这从广岛的原爆纪念馆居然没有半句谴责美国的说话可以看出)，却对中国的宽大嗤之以鼻。从“大和魂”的角度看，落后固然要捱打，忍让同样要捱打，他们不会因为中国的厚道宽怀而尊重中国人。

　　国际上很多研究中日关系的专家学者，不论其观点是否反共反华，他们在分析近年来两国关系恶化的众多原因时，都不约而同地指出中国的崛起令日本产生严重的不安感，这是一个很共通的看法。换言之，即使中国没有采取任何对日本不友好的措施，但只要她不断发展，从日本的角度看，这本身就是对日本的最大威胁，这本身就会导致中日关系恶化。中国真是无辜！

　　日本有些学者就比较诚实地提出，在东亚近300年的历史上，从来没有出现过两国并强的局面。明治维新以前，日本基本上臣服中国，典章制度无不学诸中国。明治维新以后，力图“脱亚入欧”，开始主宰中国。换言之，在过往300多年，东亚只能够有一个强国。1979年后这种格局开始有变，隐然出现两强并列的局面，这对日本的心理状态带来很大的冲击，这就不可避免地引起两国不断的冲突。这种意见比较客观而又委婉地指出，近年来中日两国关系的恶化，责任不在中国这一方面。

　　笔者时常奉劝日本人要重视3个事实。

　　第一是地理事实。不管他们喜欢不喜欢中国，中国将永远是他们的近邻。既然如此，何必要为自己制造一个紧张的邻居关系？

　　第二是历史事实。在长达3000多年的人类文明史上(笔者以可供比拟的历史为准)，中国绝大多数时期都是处于世界领先地位的。只有在最近300多年来才因为制度以及思维不能及时更新而处于暂时的落后。现在世界上目睹的中国的崛起，不过是中华民族恢复她在过去历史上的地位和发展轨迹而已，因此这个民族复兴事业，是一定会出现的，出现后对世界的影响，也将是巨大而积极的，就如她过去曾经对人类文明做出巨大而积极的贡献一样。因此日本没有必要为中国要实现民族振兴而过分担心，乃至采取措施去破坏这个进程。日本不是侵略中国凡100多年吗，结果如何？日本充其量只能拖慢中国的崛起，却不能遏止她的复兴。

　　第三个是种族事实。不论日本心理上如何想“脱亚入欧”，他们种族上作为黄种人的事实是改变不了的。在战后史上只有南非在白人种族主义政策高潮的时候，日本是唯一黄种人国家在南非取得白种人地位。笔者实在觉得没有必要为了心理上“脱亚入欧”而对亚洲国家采取鄙视的态度。日本慨叹他们在东南亚的投资遍地开花，可就是得不到当地人民的尊重。究其原因，还不是他们这种“脱亚入欧”的心态在作祟。笔者奉劝日本人去研究一下靖国神社内的“游就馆”，是如何教导日本人去鄙视同为黄种人的中国和东南亚人民。日本人自己不去清算这种教育，她将永远处于一种痛苦的挣扎：自己明明是黄种人，但受到的教育却恰恰是否定黄种人，这不令自己痛苦死才怪。

　　日本不正视这3个事实，她与亚洲各国的相处将永远是一个问题。
2005-4-19 05:03 AM#205
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wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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Achilles' heel of Kenneth Lieberthal's US-brokered cross-strait peace proposal

"Foreign Affairs" carries in its current issue an article by Kenneth Lieberthal in which a U.S.-brokered cross-strait peace plan is mulled over at length.

Lieberthal -- Senior Policy Advisor during Clinton's second term and presently a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C. -- suggests that the Bush government should broker a short-term peace deal before 2007, lest any unforeseeable crisis quickly deteriorates into an unnecessary Sino-US military confrontation.

A careful scrutiny of his conceptual framework shows a fundamental flaw that invalidates the premise of his entire argument.

According to Lieberthal, there are three plausible definitions of "Taiwan Independence" or Taidu.

The first one -- the “international” definition -- depends on diplomatic recognition by the world's nations. Based on such a definition, Taidu cannot come about because of the Island’s non-recognition status by the majority of the world's nations.

The second one -- the "ideational" definition -- asserts that independence status is achieved if Taidu is accepted as an “idea” by a majority of the island's inhabitants.

The third one -- the "juridical" definition -- says that Chen would have crossed the red line if he unilaterally changes the status quo either by using Salami Tactics such as calling for a referendum to officially convert the name of the island to "Republic of China (Taiwan)" or "ROC (Taiwan)" -- names which he could formally ratify in 2008 after winning a referendum in 2006.

The first two options are purely academic.  As to the third one, it is virtually impossible for Chen to succeed here in view of the Pan-Blue's December 2004 win in the election for legislature seats.

Lieberthal then proposed that Washington step in to broker an "Agreed framework" in which both sides are held accountable in ensuring peace in our time with a guarantee by the "international community" that any Beijing move to use force and likewise any Taidu move to declare independence would automatically prompt international intervention for the duration of the Agreed Framework.  

Anyone with half a brain would immediately see that this is nothing but an attempt to tie China's hands in implementing the ASA.

In other words, he is proposing to put peace ahead of unification as the underlying principle in dealing with the Taidu problem.  This is inimical to the ASA which puts unification ahead of peace, and is therefore a fundamental flaw in the entire argument.

Lieberthal urged the Bush government to implement his proposal before the next round of elections in 2007 in order to take full advantage of this "window of opportunity."

Such a plan lacks feasibility because:

First, there is a major paradigm shift in China's foreign policy as exemplified in the killing of 8 Vietnamese pirates off the coast of Hainan Island -- the first time she had ever used force in solving such problems -- plus the no-nonsense obligatory use of force spelt out in the ASA.

The One China Principle is not something to be trifled with or treated like a disposable napkin -- to be used when the Taidus want to keep the status quo and to be discarded when China suffers a setback or when the meddlers have perfected their theater missile defence  -- which is the gist of his solution.

To bind Beijing into an internationally proctored agreement in which use of force is ruled out in exchange for Taiwan's not declaring independence for a SPECIFIED period of time can only be a cruel joke.

In legal parlance, there is no due consideration in the proposal and no sane government would agree to it.

In such a scenario, Taiwan loses the recognition of a few little friends by declaring independence, while China would lose all credibility by failing to implement a solemnly ratified piece of legislation.

A short-term agreement would therefore give the meddlers what they need – TIME -- to re-deploy their forward strategic bases and plausibly a more dependable theater missile defense capability.

Second, it is not true that ideationally “the majority of the islanders want independence” as Lieberthal asserts in his article.

Why would our compatriots want independence when they can find more political and economic success by rejoining the motherland?  Many islanders have in fact been hoodwinked by the Lee-Chen-Lu clique into believing that the mainland wants to "annex" the island willy-nilly and thereby punish the residents for their past intransigence.

As shown by the commotion regarding the delivery of Taiwan's tropical fruits to mainland cities, the Islanders are gradually waking up to the fact that the mainland is their economic lifeline and that mainlanders are not bogeymen by any stretch of imagination.

To claim that the islanders want independence is tantamount to saying that certain kidnapped children want to stay put because they have been brainwashed to believe that their biological parents don't want them back and that therefore they should stay with the kidnappers.

Third, the cross-strait relationship is developing with uncanny rapidity after the ratification of the ASA.  Opposition chiefs Lien Chan and James Soong have both scheduled visits to the mainland for talks with Hu in Beijing, leaving chameleon Chen in the lurch mulling over whether to join the stampede or not.

This turn of events has caught elected officials in Washington D.C. by surprise.   While most Americans look at Chinese people with less and less enmity these days, the majority of the congressmen they elect to office are dead set against China and compete with one another vilifying the Old Country in congressional sessions as if it were the hip thing to do.  

They enact laws that are harmful to the Chinese people such as the Taiwan Relations Act and even jumped into the fray enacting unfair trading bills and erecting barriers to Chinese imports in total disregard of WTO rules and practices. Judging from the bipartisan speeches they make in congress, the last thing they want to see is the re-unification of China.

These U.S. congressmen will stop at nothing to impede the outflow of technology into China.  Superficially it might seem that they only want to browbeat the EU not to lift their arms embargo, but in fact their opposition is directed at more than military purchases or dual-use technologies, as was convincingly shown by their recent opposition to the sale of mineral-detection instruments by an Australian mining company to China.

The only reason they are smiling at us so far is because they are not ready to attack China and that intertwining economic interests of American trading companies are growing faster than they ever expected.

Once they get the NMD ready it will be a totally different story, and the recent aggressive behavior of the Koizumi government tells us that Japan is determined to partner with America against China and it behooves us to work towards a resolution of the Taiwan problem sooner rather than later.

"A long night brings frequent nightmares," so goes a Chinese saying.

With re-unification as our primary national objective, time is of the essence and a U.S.-brokered cross-strait peace deal is simply not a viable option.
2005-4-19 08:07 PM#206
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America's three doors and Japan's cacophony of madness

The House of America has three doors guarded by two island trolls and three lackeys.

The front door, facing the Atlantic and including the Boston-to-Washington D.C. corridor, forms the seat of American political power, and is guarded by the island nation of Britain under Troll Tony Blair.

The back door, facing the Pacific and including the increasingly important economic hub of the San-San (San Diego to San Francisco) corridor, is protected by three lines of defence spanning a third of the global circumference, the first of which is guarded by the island nation of Japan under Troll Junichiro Koizumi.

The pets' door, facing the Chinese mainland across the Taiwan Strait, is guarded by the Taidus under the Lee-Chen-Lu lackeys, who most inexplicably are paying exorbitant sums of money to protect their master.

We are here primarily interested in the First Island Chain where the back and pets' doors are located, and which is formed by the Japanese, Okinawan, Taiwanese and Filipino islands.

This line represents the realpolitik of America's containment of China, and if extended westward through the Strait of Malacca to the Middle East, represents the entire western American defence perimeter today.

Obviously, the pivotal nation at the head of this defence perimeter is Japan.

Japan had bought security and peace on the cheap for more than six decades. Nearly 50,000 US troops based on Okinawa and other islands guarantee the country's security in return for a five billion USD annual fee payable in cash to Washington.

For her, that security bargain enabled her to concentrate all her efforts on economic development for the major part of the last sixty years.

After 911, Washington came to view Japan more as a command post for operations extending to the Middle East than as a vanquished foe that had adopted a half-hearted defence posture. In the intervening three and a half years since that fateful day, the island nation had become a pillar of America's security edifice.

Even though the command headquarters of the US Army's First Corps is scheduled to be transferred from Washington state, on the US Pacific coast, to a camp near Yokohama south of Tokyo, that does not mean American ground troops are going to be stationed closer to the Asian mainland.

On the contrary, state-of-the-art long-range reach by drones and cruise missiles means that American soldiers do not need to be deployed at the frontline if their Japanese counterparts can be used as substitutes.

For instance, the island of Guam in the Second Island Chain presently houses the 13th Air Command which includes long-range B52H bombers carrying 2500-km nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, although lately it has been rumored that the command will be moved to Yokota airbase in Tokyo.

Los Angeles-Class nuclear submarines parked in Guam’s deep harbors can easily be put out to sea momentarily. Again, to put everything into perspective, just remember that a cruise missile with a 2,500-km range launched mid-air from a B52H bomber from the sky above Guam can hit all major targets in Eastern China.

The First Corps' operations in the Pacific and Indian oceans, extending to the conflict zones and oilfields of the Gulf, now include the defence of Taiwan and South Korea in its large calculus according to America’s February 19th 2+2 memo set up with Japan.

It is now clear that Koizumi has thrown himself stock-and-barrel into the embrace of the neocons, and has therefore deliberately provoked his nation's Korean, Chinese and Russian neighbors through unconscionable history textbook revisions and island disputes in order to forge a siege mentality amongst her home audience.

His sole purpose is to scrap Japan's Peace Constitution for good -- since whatever the people of the provoked nations do can always be spinned into one of violence and aggression against Japan.

For example, Chinese protesters' egg-throwing defiance has already been spinned into mob violence in the Western and Japanese press. Who knows for certain if a Japanese spy is not amongst the demonstrators throwing firebombs? That's why the Chinese government took pains to control the crowds so that they would not be manipulated or misguided by agents with ulterior motives.

Koizumi's instructions to his foreign minister before the latter's visit to China two days ago must have been: "Say anything that the Chinese wish to hear but write nothing down. The only mission for you is to numb them into believing everything in their self-induced hypnotic trance -- that we truly regret what we did in WWII. Chinese people have only five minutes of enthusiasm for this kind of thing as had been proven before in the 1930s. They dare to struggle but they do not dare to win, since winning means being patient and making sacrifices for the long haul."

It is known that the US-Japan security treaty had stipulated that US bases may only be used "for the purpose of contributing to the security of Japan and the maintenance of international peace and security in the Far East." Has anyone heard any mention of Middle Eastern nations like Iran or Iraq in that treaty? No. So that means Japanese involvement in the Middle East is a price she is willing to pay to have the genie bottle uncorked for the release of her abominable militarist spirits.

Unfortunately for East Asians, under Prime Minister Koizumi Japan is in the wrong hands at the wrong moment in history. The British-educated Koizumi has proven to be a particularly hawkish warmonger aiming to shatter any lingering nostalgia for peaceful and prosperous co-existence in East Asia. To dreamers like him wiggling in virtual time machines, neither the Sino-Japanese War nor the Cold War had truly ended.

China seems not to have a worry in the world about an imminent war. Shanghai’s real estate prices are soaring unabated as if there is no tomorrow. Our implacable foe is mouthing peace and regrets but earnestly preparing for war in the East China Sea, while we are talking about prices of second homes in suburban Shanghai.

It is patently obvious that they are in the dark and we are in the open in this asymmetric peekaboo contest. We have no idea when they are going to strike and with what combination of forces.

Don't say I worry too much. At least the land and home speculators in Shanghai weren’t aware anything was wrong until the demonstrations suddenly hit the headlines over the last weekend.

It is therefore worrisome to see Chinese analysts affecting disbelief and rationalizing as to why Americans and Japanese are still harboring the Cold War Mentality. The sad truth is that neither of the two had ever taken a moment’s respite away from such a mentality after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. On the contrary, both have exploited the absence of the Russian bear to grab a bigger piece of pie.

Instead of touting the 21st century as a golden opportunity to further Asian solidarity, the Japanese want to make this their own performing stage for military confrontations under the auspices of their neocon masters. They are searching intensively for ballistic-missile as well as satellite-intelligence capabilities as reflected in the content of her H2 rocket payloads. All this points to one thing -- they are preparing for war.

That explains the abruptly aggressive fireworks display featuring the dastardly history textbook revisions; adoption of a common military platform to "defend Taiwan"; pre-emptive strikes against North Korea and a nuclear deterrent option all emanating simultaneously in a cacophony of madness from this rogue nation.

Sounds to me like a bad time to buy real estate in Shanghai.
2005-4-20 03:01 PM#207
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A recap: on page 6 of this thread, please note the following:

Forumites, the Taiwan situation is still very grave, so let's hear what you have to say. Go ahead please.

Finally we can get back to talk about serious issues.

The Japanese government has decided to claim the lighthouse on Diaoyutai as official government property and this has aroused tremendous indignation amongst Chinese compatriots around the world.

I like to hear your opinions first before I offer my own.

Please let us know what you think and what are China's options?

After this discussion I'll be announcing other interesting topics to discuss.

I'll tell you my impressions of Lebanon and Syria when I visited those countries.

I'll tell you what it feels to be amongst the Russians.

I'll tell you how clean Singapore is.

I'll tell you how old the city of Penang in Malaysia is.

I'll tell you about my twenty-one drives across the lengths and breadths of the United States.

I'll tell you the adventures in North Africa and Eastern Europe.

I'll tell you the great cities in Western Europe.

I'll describe to you the overland trip in the Fertile Crescent from Beirut in Lebanon, through Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, and then continuing by flight to Thailand and China in my early 20s..

I'll tell you my observations in just about every major city in China during the past fifteen years.

All this and more on one and only one condition:

Shhhhhh quiet and no disturbance when I speak, or else no one including me would want to talk about these things if the mood is ugly.

I may upload some pictures and yet I may not, depending on the circumstances.

Guys, it is all up to you.

The reason this thread is pertinent is because I think the greatest job we have in front of us that we can do to commemorate Premier Zhou on January 8, 2006 on the Thirtieth Anniversary of his passing away is to fulfill our historic duty in retrieving Taiwan.

The Anti-Secession Act is going to be ratified by our PNC next month in March 2005.

We will AUTOMATICALLY ENFORCE unification and crush Taidu regardless of personal preferences after the law is enacted.

That's why the Japanese government under Koizumi is sending troops to Diaoyutai Islands to guard that lighthouse whose presence hitherto has been explained on the basis of isolated, individual actions not sanctified by the Japanese government.

There is no escape from a confrontation. There is no way we can avoid this coming struggle.. It is like Chairman Mao used to say in one of his essays, "Shan yu yu lai feng man lou." (before the rains actually come, winds will fill the bell tower). The question is not whether it will come, but when.

I'll tell you the strategic importance of Taiwan to the Chinese nation that makes it imperative that we excise the tumor before it metastasizes and becomes a full-blown malignancy.

So I'll wait a day to listen to your precious opinions first.

Go ahead. I am sure someone is better than me and can write short posts that will strike fear into the Taidus.

Let's all hear the geniuses offer their 200-300 word pithy little gems first.


2005-02-17 09:03  Reply    Edit
2005-4-21 05:50 PM#208
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wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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In addition on the same page, note that

wchao37
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I have found a solution, forumites, to solve the ghost attack issue until better software is available at CD.

This should work before better software packages or technical changes are available at CD.

Do not let what people with a secret agenda against China in general or me personally interfere with our conversations at CD.

To save time you can come straight to this thread to see what I have to say. I will only use this thread as my all-inclusive thread.

Simultaneously I would upload the same content under a different heading in other forums or even in this forum, but you don’t have to go there because there might be ghosts attacking me because they do not want you to read my posts.

But I will stay the course in this thread to help the mods in policing this place.

All my posts will come under this heading for the foreseeable future. If you do see another post elsewhere, rest assured that the same content is available here.

There are too many travelogues and stuff to talk about so this will form my conduit to my loyal friends around the world that had come to talk to me in a few forums in the last seven years.

In other words, you can think of this as my column.

If you see attack posts against me by the ghosts of the two, stay clear from them and come straight to this thread to talk with me strictly on serious topics.

Trust the hard-working mods here to 'take care of' them.

Thank you all and lots of luv.
2005-4-22 04:53 AM#209
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wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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And of course this

wchao37
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I am choosing this way to 'talk' to my worldwide audience for three reasons

First, the red flag makes it easy for you to find me and saves you precious time. Most of us are busy and have a limited amount of time visitng a forum looking for posts on any given day. The red flag will therefore work miracles for both you and me. It will definitely save me time too in the long run.

Second, even if a poster disrupts this thread, he would only succeed in helping me to float the post to the top. It makes the job of the mods easier because all they need to do is to look at one red-flagged post whenever it floats to or near the vicinity of the top, look at the post to determine its viability, and act according to their judgment..

Third, even if I have to be absent periodically from time to time the post will just sink to the bottom or disappear into the other pages. When I return I'll just pick it up wherever it might be and continue on. Seeing the red flag means that I am back.

This year is very important for China because it is the first year that the Anti-Secession Act is in place.

While I am waiting for opinions on why Diaoyutai and Taiwan are important for China to be given by knowledgeable short-post experts, I'll venture to talk to you how one Taiwanese man lost his chance to be the hero of the Chinese nation -- a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

I'll now discuss with you why I think Taiwan's Ma Yin Jeou is amateurish in politics. I am saying that his competence was only that of an English interpreter for Chiang Jinguo (Chiang Kaishek's son) after attending Harvard, but he lacked a fundamental understanding of Chinese history and global geopolitics and was therefore unable to understand the advantageous position he was in and squandered it out of pure ignorance as in the case of his naive opposition to the Anti-Secession Act.

Due to this cognitive handicapp he might end up being a greater political risk than Chen Suibian if he ever gets elected for public office before unification is achieved.


P.S.

Just now there was a disruptive post uploaded by ahchoo. The mods took care of it soon afterwards, showing that the plan works.

I consider myself a real lucky guy. Which other poster is always surrounded by a cacophony of barking dogs around his posts every time he appears?

It's like the paparazzi tailing and filming you every moment you come out of the rear door.

It's like a standing ovation from the crowd.

Encore, encore -- the dogs bark, and if they ever come in, they will help me to float it to the top.

To be chastised by detractors all the time is the greatest honor anyone can ever bestow on a veteran like wchao37.

Remember: this cacophony of barking dogs is sweet music to me.

No dogs ever bark around an ineffectual gypsie spy drooling on wheelchairs or a girly man transferring conversations from other forums into this place and pretend as if he is talking to a real forumite at CD.

Obviously such a man has suffered too many setbacks in having his ghost moles exposed one by one -- even ones well camouflaged for ages and thought to be secure.
2005-4-22 09:31 PM#210
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wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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As with racing cars, it is the moment of overtaking that brings the greatest ris

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/4449005.stm

The row over Japan's past and future

By William Horsley

Japan's decision to approve new school textbooks, criticised by some for glossing over the country's wartime record, have promoted demonstrations in several Chinese cities. But as William Horsley discovers the row between the two countries concerns the future as well as the past.

Prime Minister Koizumi's visits to the shrine were criticised by China
The most striking thing about the Yasukuni Shrine is its massive and forbidding black "torii" gate.

A distinctive symbol of the Shinto religion, a gaunt silhouette beneath which, on a bright spring day, I watched men and women of all ages streaming in to pay their respects to ancestors, or to admire the enchanting display of cherry blossoms on the tree-lined avenue.

Each family group would pause, shut their eyes and pray in front of the open-plan wooden building where the souls of two-and-a-half-million Japanese war dead are enshrined.

Those war dead include Hideki Tojo, Japan's wartime prime minister who was later hanged with a dozen other top leaders as a war criminal.

Japan's present leader, Junichiro Koizumi has made regular visits to Yasukuni Shrine in spite of furious complaints from China, South Korea and other neighbouring countries that in doing so he was condoning Japan's aggressive war in the 1930s and 1940s.

And now, the news from China is bad, very bad.

Demonstrations

Demonstrations over the text-books have extended to South Korea
Last weekend an angry crowd gathered in Beijing to throw stones at the Japanese embassy.

In other cities young people have attacked Japanese shops and businesses.

In Shanghai two Japanese students were badly beaten up in a restaurant.

Chinese leaders say Japan will not deserve a permanent seat on the UN Security Council until it faces up honestly to its wartime misdeeds.

An e-mail doing the rounds in China calls for a mass boycott of Japanese goods. "Send this on to other Chinese people", the message says, "and we won't need to go to war!"

History

This stream of invective against the Japanese is not new.

Some Asia watchers see it largely as a device by Chinese leaders to extract more Japanese aid or divert attention from their own failings.

It is alarmingly reminiscent of the age of the Communist Red Guards.

The Yasukuni Shrine remains a potent symbol of how the Japanese, intoxicated by fascism and coerced by military rule, once collectively lost their reason and were fed fantastic myths, of racial superiority and the Emperor's divinity

But on this trip to Japan I could not avoid the conclusion that a new mood of nationalism has also begun to take hold in this country which has been publicly devoted to peace and economic prosperity for so long.

One sign is the Japanese authorities' approval of several new school history textbooks written by known right-wing scholars.

One book which has angered the Chinese failed to make any assessment of the number of Chinese civilians killed in the infamous Rape of Nanjing.

The internationally accepted view is that hundreds of thousands died in an orgy of sexual violence and killing by Japanese troops.

And Japan's largest national newspaper, the Yomiuri Shimbun, in what I take to be blatant disregard for the known facts, has called on its readers to celebrate, because the new textbooks have cut out all mention of one of the greatest of all the humiliations inflicted by Imperial Japan on its neighbours: the use of large numbers of women in conquered Asian countries as sex slaves for the Japanese army.

It was right to set the record straight, I read, because the accusations "had been shown to be untrue".

Surely I thought modern Japan could not give in to the poison of such deceit and hypocrisy ever again.

The Yasukuni Shrine remains a potent symbol of how the Japanese, intoxicated by fascism and coerced by military rule, once collectively lost their reason and were fed fantastic myths, of racial superiority and the Emperor's divinity.

'Bitter dispute'

I had come to see the recently expanded Yasukuni museum of Japanese history.

For 100 years Japan has been number one in Asia. Now China, with 10 times Japan's population, is in a hurry to take over that role

I found that its 18 galleries of high-quality displays, maps and texts amount to a lavish and expensive re-write of the history of Japan's imperial age, to show the Japanese as innocent victims of a conspiracy by the Western colonial powers, to thwart Japan's ambition to lead East Asia and force Japan into war.

By this account annexing Korea, setting up a puppet regime in Manchukuo, the step by step takeover of China, each was done in self-defence, aiming only to bring peace.

As for Nanjing, I found no mention of Japanese soldiers killing civilians.

Instead, these words: "The Chinese were soundly defeated, suffering heavy casualties. Inside the city, residents were once again able to live their lives in peace."

However you look at it, that will not do as a record of what happened.

By chance I came across this testimony of a Japanese army veteran who was there.

"No matter how young or old, none of the women we rounded up could escape being raped. Each one was allocated to 15 or 20 soldiers for sexual intercourse and abuse."

Afterwards "we always stabbed them and killed them. Because dead bodies don't talk."

The bitter dispute now raging between Japan and China is both about setting the record straight and about a struggle for power.

For 100 years Japan has been number one in Asia.

Now China, with 10 times Japan's population, is in a hurry to take over that role.

And as with highly-geared racing cars sharing the same circuit, it is the moment of overtaking that brings the greatest risk of a crash.
2005-4-22 09:34 PM#211
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quietrequiem (Credo)
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Reply: A central task for China

The real central task, my friend, is for China to come to grips with her closed-mindedness to world politics and their effect on the motherland.  China today, has the choice to open herself to peace, instead you are commanding her to be submissive and ignore the olive branch that has been extended to her.  Hu's refusal to sit down and talk with the Japanese mongrel will be watched and criticized worldwide.

requiem
2005-4-22 09:42 PM#212
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wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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冷静与全面审视中日关系 -- 确保中日关系大局稳定对中国具有重要战略价值

　　近来，因日本政府在一系列问题上损害中国正当权益、伤害中国人民感情，导致了中国国内民众的严重不满与强烈抗议，致使中日关系跌入低谷，并影响到中国的发展大业与社会稳定。对此，我们极有必要保持清醒头脑，防止因一叶障目而不见泰山，尤其应力避我既定战略部署因此受到冲击与干扰。

　　一、当前中日矛盾的症结在日本

　　其一，历史问题。由于二战后未能彻底清除军国主义与皇国史观，致使日本政府屡屡在历史问题上出尔反尔、自相矛盾、动摇不定。更有甚者，日本主要领导人罔顾中国人民感受，执意三番五次参拜供奉有二战甲级战犯的靖国神社，篡改历史教科书，美化侵华战争，摆脱历史罪责。

　　其二，领土争端。日本长期非法占据中国钓鱼岛，坚持按不合理的中间线原则划分东海经济专属区。

　　其三，以日美军事同盟干涉我台湾问题。日美新安全保障联合声明首次将所谓“台海和平”作为其“共同战略目标”，日本对我通过《反分裂国家法》也颇多微词。

　　其四，也是最根本的，日本不愿看到中国崛起，千方百计对此加以阻挠，并恶意与中国争夺地区影响力。包括在联合国安理会改革问题上日本搞“远交近攻”，迫不及待争当新常任理事国，以及对中国与东盟、俄罗斯的经济能源合作进行干扰破坏等等。

　　二、确保中日关系大局稳定对中国具有重要战略价值

　　其一，虽然存在上述众多棘手矛盾，但中日两国在一系列重大问题上仍有共同利益。包括中日经济互补性强、经济相互依赖紧密、双方你中有我与我中有你；中日在确保东亚和平稳定、推进东亚经济一体化上有一致之处。

　　其二，日本是中国大周边外交的重要对象之一，稳定与良好的中日关系有助于促进中国的睦邻外交，维护中国在大周边地区的战略利益。

　　其三，中国统一大业与反台独斗争需要中日关系保持稳定。如中日关系严重恶化、两国陷入全面对抗，从中获益最大的恐会是台独势力。近来有迹象表明，台独势力正企图利用中日矛盾，投靠美日同盟，对抗祖国大陆的统一事业。如台联党主席参拜靖国神社，台湾当局拟放弃钓鱼岛、搞“媚日外交”等。

　　其四，中国崛起与和平发展需要中日关系保持稳定。中国崛起是要最终成为多极格局中的独立一极，这必然要求反对超级大国的单极霸权，它也要求中国联合其他大国、共同促进多极化。如中日关系恶化，致使日本成为中国的对立面，则将促使日本完全倒向单极霸权一方，而与中国对抗。近来美国全球战略调整与美日同盟的日趋深化，其背后便有美国利用中日矛盾、联日制中、重点防范中国崛起的深层考虑。而中日陷入对抗的结果，将是鹬蚌相争、渔翁得利，即中日相争、美台得利。

　　其五，中日关系进一步恶化有可能危及中国社会稳定，甚至有可能因此而丧失掉中国加快发展的重要战略机遇期。

　　其六，维护中日关系大局稳定有利于继续塑造中国的良好国际形象，有利于进一步消除“中国威胁论”。

　　三、从容不迫、冷静应对、服从大局

　　其一，坚信党和政府处理对日外交的智慧与能力，坚信中国党和政府坚决捍卫本国利益的坚定决心。

　　其二，有关群众集会活动务必合法有序进行，服从政府管理，表达相关意见应该理性而成熟。

　　其三，全面看待中日关系与全面认识日本，对日外交趋利避害，增加积极因素，减少消极因素。不能眼睛只盯着日本一家，还应看到美国与台湾因素，应有全局意识与战略观念。

　　其四，将日本少数右翼势力与日本广大普通民众区分开来，积极争取日本民间对华友好力量，并以其制约日右翼反华势力。

　　其五，对日工作兼顾原则性与灵活性，争取合作、斗而不破，坚持“有理、有利、有节”方针。

中国现代国际关系研究院安全与战略研究所博士 陈向阳
2005-4-23 04:03 AM#213
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wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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It's a tightrope performance for the Americans during the Lien visit

They cannot appear to dislike the Lien visit, inasmuch as an incontinent dinner guest cannot appear to show discomfort sitting in his wet pants.

Afterall, Lien received his doctorate in Political Science from the University of Chicago, and no one can charge him with ignorance of what the Americans want.

The best thing for the meddlers in this case would be to maintain a happy face and join the chorus of approbation for the trailblazing move by Lien.

The Island's military exercises numbering 333 times this year will continue unfettered even if the entire KMT party elite move their hearts to the mainland, appearing to acquiesce with the rest of the world that much progress has been made on the mainland, an achievement that has made every descendant of the Yellow Emperor proud.

America simply cannot afford to look like a fitful spoiler for the occasion.

On the contrary, she will play the appropriate role in this visit applauding from the sidelines as if she has not a care in the world about the Chinese actually talking to each other across the strait.

On that note I am returning to the tube to make sure I don't miss any of the welcoming ceremonies for the guest from the Island.

It is a happy moment for the Chinese nation no matter what the stooges planned to do on February 19, 2005 during that 2 plus 2 meeting between the two meddlers.
2005-4-27 07:38 PM#214
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wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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Koizumi's Bandung apologies lack credibility

His apologies were like a last-minute attempt to rein in the horses before their precipitous plunge into the abyss.

His body language in using both hands to grasp Hu's right hand was the surest sign that he subscribed to the Machiavellian dictum that "keep your friends close; keep your enemies closer."

Yes, coming at a time when Japan is confronted by myriad problems on and off the islands -- a stagnant economy, a bleak prospect to join the UNSC this year, and an ageing society increasingly divested of youthful vigor -- the double handshake is not exactly seen as an earth-shaking gesture of emblematic significance.

The 5-point-proposal by Hu merely provides an ad hoc framework that warrants Koizumi's serious consideration and it is by no means a political ultimatum by any stretch of imagination.

In fact, I further believe that as the date for the UNSC decision draws near, Koizumi will make one or two conciliatory moves in his stand on the history textbook and Shrine-visit issues -- adopting positions that he can reverse at any time after the vote -- but not on the substantive oil-exploration and island-sovereignty issues.

For Koizumi to give cold shoulders and not follow through with measurable, concrete actions in response to the proposals will result in dire consequences for both China and Japan due to the high complementarity of the two national economies.

Yes, I believe the fox chose this Afro-Asian forum to show remorse only to confirm further that he and his cronies do not truly have genuine contrition, as was shown by the fact that just before the apology was proffered at the Conference, a hundred or so officially-attired politicians went ahead and visited the Shrine.

Koizumi's whole purpose then was to show the world that it is China that has been unforgiving after Japan's repeated public apologies.  His highly publicized maneuver was therefore meant to outflank China in the UN deliberations for expanding permanent UNSC membership in September.  It was solely aimed at the Asian-African delegates whose votes weigh heavily in the UN General Assembly decisions.

With a veto in the UNSC as a permanent member, Japan will be able to bypass any future political obstacles that go against her interests including those of any future military misadventures, and render the UN ineffectual inasmuch as her withdrawal from the League of Nations in 1931 shamed the beleaguered organization into oblivion.

They will not mention that they have already drawn their line in the sand with the words "no apologies in writing" in capital letters.

They will not mention that they have already seized and occupied the Diaoyutai Island before they concurred during the Conference not to resolve conflicts by force -- a promise which if reciprocated by the Chinese will tie their hands in the future recovery of those islands.

They will not mention that they have already approved exploratory oil-drilling by a Japanese company using an arbitrary line in the East China Sea, a demarcation boundary which had not been approved by the Chinese side.

They will not mention that they are openly thinking of Taiwan as within their perimeter of defense, thus encroaching on the territorial integrity of the Old Country.

They will not mention that they still have no plans for withdrawing the doctored history textbooks glossing over past atrocities featuring unprecedented cruelties to their neighbors.

What's the use of apologies from a deep-bowing neighbor with such a wide credibility gap?

Let's wait and see what happen to the Hu-5 points as the Japanese mull over the documents.

In the meantime, keep your fingers crossed and stay sober with the realization that peaceful resolution of issues and real progress in Sino-Japanese relations are as rare as virgin grandmothers.
2005-4-27 08:09 PM#215
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The way from a pessimist to an optimist

It's definitely not good for you to remain a pessimist.

You remain a pessimist because you have too high an expectation of everything, not least of Sino-Japanese relations.

Try to take your mind off it for a while, and think how to thwart Japanese's bid for the UNSC. That may give you a chance to regain your optimism.
2005-4-27 10:51 PM#216
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Why is Koizumi in New Delhi looking like a wet poodle?

He was in the Indian capital visiting "old friends" trying to remind his Indian buddies how to drum up support for their bids for permanent membership in the UNSC.

China supports the Indian bid but not the Japanese one for obvious reasons. So the Japsanese are trying to bundle themselves as Indian-lookalikes to be smuggled into the Security Council.

That of course won't work. The Chinese representative at the UN has fielded a proposal amongst members of the "Coffee Club" not to rush the UNSC reform without first forming a majority consensus for the reforms (&gt; 90 percent majority required).

If Koizumi charges headstrong into the Chinese position, he will fail. That's why he maneuvered himself into a double handshake with Hu at the 2nd Bandung conference last week.

The original hypothesis was not unreasonable -- Japan would simply dough out a lot of money to Annan and his cohorts in the aftermath of the scandals surrounding the UN Secretary.

In fact, Annan had just posted an article in "Foreign Affairs" stating that it would be imperative to make an early decision even without reaching a consensus before the General Assembly convenes later this year.

China respects the institution of UN but lately Kofi Annan has revealed himself to be a caterer to the wishes of Western powers rather than the needs of the Third World Nations.

He looks very black and yet his heart does not match his ethnicity.

After the 2nd Bandung Conference, China is well poised to gather enough support for a UN secretary that comes from the engine of world economic growth -- Asia.
2005-4-30 08:30 AM#217
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wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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How the meddlers must be wringing their hands in disbelief

I am curious to find out how the Japanese (not to mention the Americans) are thinking as they read the Lien Chan speech at Beida.

A small hole has now been breached in The First Island Chain. A second hole had been breached a day earlier in Manila in the Philippines. I wonder where the third hole will be pierced.

On another front, as if acting on a common cue both the Americans and the Europeans launched an "investigation" against Chinese textiles, an action in violation of WTO rules.

This is ample proof that both on the political and the economic fronts we are making our American competitors and European "strategic partners" quite uncomfortable.

It has been 12 years to the exact date since the first Gu-Wang meeting took place from April 27-9, 1993 in Singapore, with both sides upholding the principle of One China sacrosanct as a precondition of their discussions.

It has been 60 years since the leaders of the two parties last met in a cordial spirit of cooperation in 1945 in the aftermath of the Japanese surrender.

It has been 80 years since the great Sun Yat-sen died of liver cancer in Beijing in 1925.

It has been 100 years since two foreign nations were engaged in a major military conflict on Chinese soil during the Russo-Japanese War of 1905 -- a ridiculous fact which brought great sense of shame to the Chinese people.

It has been 600 years since the great Admiral Zheng He first departed from the Chinese seaport of Quanzhou in 1405 on one of the epic sea journeys which probably resulted in the first circumnavigation around the globe, without engaging in the plunder of any relatively backward peoples in his voyages.

And it has been 2211 years since the start of the war between the mighty Xiang Yu and the much weaker Liu Bang as a result of the disintegration of the Qin Empire, ending three years later in 203 B.C. with the defeat of General Xiang – the romantic hero with endearing personal qualities quite unlike those of the treacherous Liu Bang.

Xiang's defeat at the hands of the much weaker Liu Bang is mentioned here because it illustrates vividly why high vigilance has to be maintained despite the apparent thaw between a portion of the Taiwanese populace and the mainland.  It is precisely at this moment that we have to keep a watchful eye on the Taidus and thwart any attempt at a pre-emptive strike against the mainland.

The imperialist meddlers will never go down in history this easy.  They will continue to probe for our weaknesses and may even strike unexpectedly.  

The Principle of Daoism says that the happiest moment in a person’s life is also the most dangerous moment.  Having all the marbles in our court does not guarantee assured overall success.  

Remember that the Trojans lost the War to the Mycenaeans in 1200 B.C. (recounted by Homer in the Iliad) precisely when they thought they had won a great victory and pulled the wooden horse into their city.  

We have to be on high alert precisely at this juncture when the vision of a beautiful Rose Garden of national reconciliation beckons us in the horizon.  Whether it stays a mirage or becomes a reality depends on our constant vigilance over potential dangers.

Still, I believe this trail-blazing journey by Lien Chan to the mainland augurs well for the peaceful resolution of the KMT-CCP conflict.  Taidu, however still remains a tough nut to crack because of desinification measures taken by the Lee-Chen-Lu clique.  Ironically, the enemy of the KMT is no longer the CCP, but the DPP on the same bed but cherishing a different dream.  

In fact, the Taidus have now become the common enemy of both the mainlanders and the islanders.  It's high time for the Japanese rat called Lee Tenghui to be hung from a meat hook for special interrogation.

The centrifugal force of world history will now proceed to flush them down the storm drains, and it can be expected that their masters in Washington D.C. will now push for them to act faster in weapons procurement from the Pentagon.

The enthusiasm of the Chinese people for national reconciliation cannot be over-emphasized.  The shock of the dramatic turn of events is so great and the prospects so alluring that everything so far still appears like a dream in Never-Never Land.

There simply is no way for anyone to fail to be impressed by how well Lien was received throughout his trip by the Mainlanders wishing for a break in the cross-strait impasse.

The historic journey that has been made possible by economic and political megatrend forces as well as the eternal patience of the Chinese people has now materialized to the chagrin of the meddlers but to the joyous consolation of everyone else.

A bold dash across the Strait that started with a melee at the airport in Taipei is about to end on a happy note of reconciliation.
2005-4-30 08:35 AM#218
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wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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The epitome of nobility in global politics today

Lien delivered an exceptional speech at Beida yesterday morning.

The man was quintessentially a professor -- he felt more at ease speaking to academics than to the lay people on the street, and nowhere was this fact demonstrated more clearly than Lien's speech at Beida.

His airport and other impromptu speeches were therefore not exactly firebombs hurled into the crowds, but this speech at Beida was very well managed and delivered, showing that the Professor did his preparatory work well for the lecture.

In a way, his Beida speech changed the way I look at the man.

I still wonder how such a man survived as vice-prez under Lee Teng-hui for so long. Had he ever had a fireside chat with the then leader of KMT who claimed that he was a Japanese before age 22?

Yes indeed, how did Lien survive under Lee?

Was he a different person at that time?

In the least, I surmise that the basic problem with decent fellas like him is that he cannot hope to rein in wulais like Lee and Chen from selling the Taiwanes compatriots out to the highest foreign bidder.

He has now been pushed by historical forces beyond his ken and control -- the global economy and the common aspirations of the Chinese people and in fact of all Asian peoples for economic advancement and common prosperity.

To properly address these two deep-seated needs of the widest segment of Asian peoples is the epitome of nobility in global politics today.
2005-4-30 08:39 AM#219
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wchao37 (oneinch-grinder)
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Optimistic caution amidst euphoria

It has been 12 years to the exact date since the first Gu-Wang meeting took place from April 27-9, 1993 in Singapore, with both sides upholding the principle of One China sacrosanct as a precondition of their discussions.

It has been 60 years since the leaders of the two parties last met in a cordial spirit of cooperation in 1945 in the aftermath of the Japanese surrender.

It has been 80 years since the great Sun Yat-sen died of liver cancer in Beijing in 1925.

It has been 100 years since two foreign nations were engaged in a major military conflict on Chinese soil during the Russo-Japanese War of 1905 -- a ridiculous fact which brought great sense of shame to the Chinese people.

It has been 600 years since the great Admiral Zheng He first departed from the Chinese seaport of Quanzhou in 1405 on one of the epic sea journeys which probably resulted in the first circumnavigation around the globe, without engaging in the plunder of any relatively backward peoples in his voyages.

And it has been 2211 years since the start of the war between the mighty Xiang Yu and the much weaker Liu Bang as a result of the disintegration of the Qin Empire, ending three years later in 203 B.C. with the defeat of General Xiang – the romantic hero with endearing personal qualities quite unlike those of the treacherous Liu Bang.

Xiang's defeat at the hands of the much weaker Liu Bang is mentioned here because it illustrates vividly why high vigilance has to be maintained despite the apparent thaw between a portion of the Taiwanese populace and the mainland.  It is precisely at this moment that we have to keep a watchful eye on the Taidus and thwart any attempt at a pre-emptive strike against the mainland.

The imperialist meddlers will never go down in history this easy.  They will continue to probe for our weaknesses and may even strike unexpectedly.  

The Principle of Daoism says that the happiest moment in a person’s life is also the most dangerous moment.  Having all the marbles in our court does not guarantee assured overall success.  

Remember that the Trojans lost the War to the Mycenaeans in 1200 B.C. (recounted by Homer in the Iliad) precisely when they thought they had won a great victory and pulled the wooden horse into their city.  

We have to be on high alert precisely at this juncture when the vision of a beautiful Rose Garden of national reconciliation beckons us in the horizon.  Whether it stays a mirage or becomes a reality depends on our constant vigilance over potential dangers.

Still, I believe this trail-blazing journey by Lien Chan to the mainland augurs well for the peaceful resolution of the KMT-CCP conflict.  Taidu, however still remains a tough nut to crack because of desinification measures taken by the Lee-Chen-Lu clique.  Ironically, the enemy of the KMT is no longer the CCP, but the DPP on the same bed but cherishing a different dream.  

In fact, the Taidus have now become the common enemy of both the mainlanders and the islanders.  It's high time for the Japanese rat called Lee Tenghui to be hung from a meat hook for special interrogation.

The centrifugal force of world history will now proceed to flush them down the storm drains, and it can be expected that their masters in Washington D.C. will now push for them to act faster in weapons procurement from the Pentagon.

The enthusiasm of the Chinese people for national reconciliation cannot be over-emphasized.  The shock of the dramatic turn of events is so great and the prospects so alluring that everything so far still appears like a dream in Never-Never Land.

There simply is no way for anyone to fail to be impressed by how well Lien was received throughout his trip by the Mainlanders wishing for a break in the cross-strait impasse.

The historic journey that has been made possible by economic and political megatrend forces as well as the eternal patience of the Chinese people has now materialized to the chagrin of the meddlers but to the joyous consolation of everyone else.

A bold dash across the Strait that started with a melee at the airport in Taipei is about to end on a happy note of reconciliation.  

A no-nonsense probe into the disturbance means that action would be taken to thwart any attempt at interfering with similar inter-party exchanges in the future.

The momentous ice-breaking journey has so far been handled very well by the people on both sides of the Strait.

Congratulations.
2005-4-30 09:06 AM#220
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