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Fun games - Predicting China's "Automobile Target Numbers" [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2013-11-24 13:36:31 |Display all floors
This could be FUN, What's the FINAL size of the Automobile population in China.

In 2013 -----> China heavy vehicles/commercial vehicles = 8 to 9 million/year. <70 to 80 million odd total units on the road>
---------------> China private use automobile = 10 milion/year <about 5 million in the "middle class" segment - large cars> <about 100 million units in total>

In 2030 ------> Expect 1-4, or 1-3 for saturation?
If 1-3, it'll be almost 1 car per household for average of 3.? person per household. ----->400 million unit in total.

small car predominantly, or will there be "road pricing", "fuel tax" to limit fuel use ------>400 MT or 600 MT?

safe to say ----->fuel use 800 MT of COE or 1,000 MT of COE.


Very interesting to follow ------> affects GLOBAL CRUDE OIL prices.
Will China do GTL to "solve" the "petrol gap issue"!!!!!
BUSINESS houses will be interested to WATCH the developments of the RESOURCES GAP game.

Cheerios!

Green DRagon
South Yang Capital

<The Resources Gap game is becoming a BIG ITEM especially with the current population now at 7 billion -whereas it was only 4 billion at the end of WW2, and expected to be 9 billion by 2050>

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Post time 2013-11-25 12:32:19 |Display all floors
This I always WONDERED?

Taiwan island of the REPUBLIC OF CHINA seats on the edge of one of the world's richest source of OIL & GAS, yet sits it OUT ----> allows British-Arab alliance to supply it's oil & gas requirement via Singapore-Malaysia.

Guangdong, Hainan, Guangxi has the same benefit for CHINA.
On the other end in Malaysia, Indonesia's Natuna islands <strangely so>, Vietnam and Phillipines.
---->now SAN MIGUEL is being geared up to take advantage of that.

Will we see TAIWAN- Republic of China taking action too?

Cheerios!

Green DRagon

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Post time 2013-11-25 12:36:53 |Display all floors
---->but we do note Republic of China <the KMT> has a large military contingent there!

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Post time 2013-12-3 14:47:30 |Display all floors
This post was edited by greendragon at 2013-12-3 14:48

China now only has around 60 million citizens with average per capita income of above US$24,000.

that means --->households too.
Explains the automobile population is at 105million units in 2013.
The rest of the vehicle fleet is COMMERCIAL vehicles probably 70 to 80 million units.

What will CHINA decide to do, especially with consideration of the various "resources" & TECHNOLOGICAL GAP.
Any clues on the trend?

Cheerios!

Green DRagon

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Post time 2013-12-4 12:38:05 |Display all floors
This should be ONE OF THE MAJOR topics beside HOUSING and FMCG

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Post time 2014-5-21 07:03:26 |Display all floors
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Post time 2014-5-21 12:32:51 |Display all floors

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