Author: UYA

Trade war. Who will win, China or US?   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2012-5-25 18:35:03 |Display all floors
Revolutionar Post time: 2012-5-25 18:15
yes, big business will get hurt..................

Of course it would be America to start such a war.
China would never consider to instigate such a thing.

A trade war like this would hurt the US from "top to bottom".
In China it would just hurt the top.

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Post time 2012-5-25 18:40:33 |Display all floors
UYA Post time: 2012-5-25 18:35
Of course it would be America to start such a war.
China would never consider to instigate such a  ...
  1. In China it would just hurt the top.
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now, you get it.


In queen bee land, the life objective of all the little bees is to make sure the queen bees are safe, happy and healthy.
I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

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Post time 2012-5-25 18:53:55 |Display all floors
A trade war, everybody loses, including Europe, there will be run on banks first and foremost as countries turn inwards, business worldwide will collapse, and soon the currency system will also collapse after the initial surge towards the dollar as a last resort till they realize no amount of dollar can buy them anything in a depressed economy and soon the dollar becomes a worthless paper currency, and there's nothing the USA military can do to fix this mess. It doesn't matter how much dollar you have when you can't buy anything with it, it just means hyperinflation will come and ultimately the dollar will become worthless as well. Luxury goods and branded items, and branded restaurants like the KFCs, Coca Cola, Nike, Apple, General Motors will all go bankrupt and the entire world will be in chaos for a long long time, when it comes down to that, everybody loses, but for the USA it will be like having their legs amputated, from their poorest to the richest, for China it may be quite different, they are the producers of the lowest end to the highest end goods, so their adjustment time will be shorter, the biggest adjustment the people have to make is in the rich develop world for sure, should world trade collapse, the smallest adjustment will be people from the poorest nation ironically. When it comes to rebuilding the world economy from scratch after the destruction of the Western dominated financial system, it will be the most productive nation that will rise the quickest, base on REAL production and not brand name manipulation, luxury items, labor abuses, financial abuses etc. It will all come down to whose people are the most productive and adaptive to the new reality in the world.

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Post time 2012-5-25 18:58:20 |Display all floors
GermanClown Post time: 2012-5-25 18:53
A trade war, everybody loses, including Europe, there will be run on banks first and foremost as cou ...

You left out one analysis,

In queen bee land, the life objective of all the little bees is to make sure the queen bees are safe, happy and healthy.
I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

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Post time 2012-5-26 01:07:20 |Display all floors
Of course, if such a trade war were to occur, the economies of both countries would be negatively effected for a period of time while each economy adjusts to the change in trade balance.

More important to note, is that the membership of both China and the U.S. in the World Trade Organization is the key reason why a "traditional" trade war will not occur.  As members of the WTO, both countries are required to abide by WTO rulings on trade disputes.

Yes, of course, all WTO members occasionally make accusations and go through the process of asking for redress against other WTO members for (real or perceived) trade issues like "dumping" and "illegal subsidies", etc.

In the end, as long as each government stands by their commitment to abide by WTO rulings, no trade war will occur.

Cheers

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Post time 2012-5-26 06:02:30 |Display all floors
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Post time 2012-5-26 09:14:53 |Display all floors
Ultimately the side that loses most would be the exporter of goods, if you can't sell you lose.
If there is no market then there would be no jobs, creating chaos.
The US can get products cheaper form other Countries as they are exiting China for greener pastures.
Supply and demand, simple really.
I'm just here for the money

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