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The BATTLE for the China's offshore energy drill sites! [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2011-6-14 12:09:53 |Display all floors
Looks like the battle for the approximately 6 mbd, 300 million tonnes production capacity OFFSHORE China's crude oil or natural gas sites has begun!

The first cluster is the (1) East China Sea - which shares borders with Taiwan, and Japan. (2) South China Sea - which shares borders with Taiwan, Vietnam, and Phillipines!

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Post time 2011-6-14 12:14:03 |Display all floors

China's major oil fields.

Like the USA, it's possible for China to produce up to 12 mbd (or 600 million tonnes) of crude oil within it's own border and continental shelf or maritime borders!

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Green DRagon
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Post time 2011-6-15 12:40:13 |Display all floors

China can be self sufficient in fuel for it's automobile fleet.

However, in interest of efficiency, it will scour the world for supply sources that the most cost effective!

Look at China's situation.
(1) It has major oil fields onshore in Xinjiang (rather under developed now) and the old fields in North East China.
(2) It's developing major oil and gas field offshore in East China Sea and South China Sea.

Those two sources will already match 12 mbd or 600 Million Tonnes of Crude oil per year.
It has additional sources.
(3) GTL, (and CTL if needed) that can produce an equivalent of 3 mboe per year.
(4) Biofuel, namely ethanol from Tapioca, or surplus maize. It can produce up to 100 M tonnes or 3 mboe per year.

If China plans to use up to 18 mbd equivalent of fuel for it's automotive industry, it's can be self sufficient!

cheerios!

Green DRagon
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Post time 2011-6-15 12:51:29 |Display all floors

We might have to negotiate production sharing

..........looking at the massive cross border claims in South China Sea.

One advantage of China, is that (1) It can afford to drill for the crude oil and gas, (2) it has the market to consume the fuel, and a disadvantage to Vietnam, Phillipine's claimants (3) it's more costly to produce than those pumped by OPEC nations!

The decision on the domestic production/imported production ratio is WILDLY difficult to predict.
The American action in the last 13 years has been quite dramatic on world wide production.
It's invasion of Mesopotamia, meant some 5 mbd production is wiped out, while sanction on Persia reduced their production by some 2mbd. The Libyan civil war, and the Gulf of Mexico oil rig accidents has further reduced global supply by yet another 2mbd.

Peak oil production came in 2007 at 85.7 mbd
It has since drop to 72mbd due to high crude oil prices in 2008, and in 2011, we are in similar conditions again!

cheerios!

Green DRagon
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Post time 2011-6-16 13:20:07 |Display all floors

The success of Vietnam in attracting foreign assembly

..............and process industry has generated big new demand for fuel, crude oil or natural gas.

It's 85 million people still belong to the ranks of the "emerging markets" with per capita income currently at a low of US$1,200/year. This means low energy and motor fuel usage.

Large investment on HIGH COST fuel could backfire, if cheap crude oil production is resumed large scale in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Iran and Venezeula. This is an investment RISK that it has to take, which China has to consider.

cheerios!

Green DRagon
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Post time 2011-6-17 12:14:58 |Display all floors

The development of the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea

.......................sites a long time ago means these sites are very cost effective or at least has most of it's investment cost recovered.

Development of new sites will depend on
(1) Capital requirement
(2) Technological capability - dependent on depth of drill, or depth of sea bed.
(3) Global Energy demand
(4) Global Production capacity (currently at 81 to 82 mbd - Saudi, Russia, CIS with capability to be simply increased to 85 mbd -Libya, Iraq, Iran)
(5) New fields underway in East Chna Sea, South China sea, offshore Brazil continental shelf, Gulf of Mexico, North Sea

cheerios!

Green DRagon
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Persian Gulf Caspian Sea lots of recovery crude oil and gas.jpg

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Post time 2011-6-20 14:37:24 |Display all floors

Is there shortage of crude oil and natural gas?

The answer would be NO!

The problem is ECONOMICAL CRUDE OIL production peaks and dips.
This would be the problem for states such as Vietnam, China, Brazil, Norway, Malayan Federation, Indonesia, USA, CIS states with Caspian Sea fields and Venezeula has got to consider!

cheerios!

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