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The Global Automobile Industry and CHINA, BRAZIL! [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2011-1-13 14:08:57 |Display all floors
The globe automobile market is basically divided into 3 regions!

(1) The Saturated Markets
(2) The Emerging Markets
(3) The Stressed Regions of the world!

Basically, the Saturated markets are the states in the developed world!
This are the British Club states, United States, European Union and Asian Trade Route States.

This are states basically where all economic active individual owns and operate vehicles. It's a 1-2 citizen ratio states!
In the United States, keeping antique cars is a large hobby - where economic active individuals could have two or more vehicles. Studies has shown, that FUEL use has always been dependent on the economic active individuals!

(2) The Emerging Markets
This presently is China, and the BR(I)M states!
Ownership of vehicle ranged from 1 in 8 in Brazil, China, Aztec states to 1 in 4 in Russia - orthodox Europe and Mexico! Such state has problem with PETROLEUM FUEL access, or has problems of high unemployment - almost 20% in Eastern Europe, Mexico, Brazil and Russia. It could be due to VASTNESS of the state, or structural destruction of their middle class via ideology or economic predation!

(3) The Stressed States!
This state has low vehicle ownership. Approximately 1 - 20, or vehicles needed for basic commodity transport and private transportation needs of the rich individuals. Basically such states lack the infrastructure of roads, fuel refining capacity, forex reserves and a skilled citizenry!

At the present situation, it only seem that CHINA and BRAZIL have the capacity to increase further it's automobile ownership numbers! Global Automotive companies needs to FOCUS on these two state if these companies want to grow their volume share of the global Automotive market!

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Green DRagon
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Post time 2011-1-17 12:35:52 |Display all floors

It's wise to do "BENCH MARKING" with other SUPER, BIG powers!

As it seems, BIG powers, SUPER powers does not import more than 25% of their energy needs!

This is to reduce the blackmail by REAL POWERFUL states.
This is the reason why many EU States, and Asian Trade Route States might be big industrial powers - yet cannot qualify as a REAL big power!

Powerful states, such as China, USA, British Club, France, Russia CANNOT BE BLACKMAIL with energy shortages!
and they keep reliance of critical commodities acceptable OR have STRONG infuence on their primary suppliers!

Looking at the situation, CHINA and BRAZIL being states with the BIGGEST GROWTH potential in the next two decade -is the biggest automotive growth market in the world!

Both states now has achieved a 1 in 8 vehicle ownership level.
With China's continued growth, and Brazil exports to China, allowing it to do likewise....
We could see a 1 in 4 vehicle ownership level in both China and Brazil.

This is an additional sa-les volume expected of China, it should add 150 more vehicles, while Brazil, will have an addition of 25 million more vehicles! The globe annual vehicle sales is somewhere around 65 million to 70 million units!
Both China and Brazil - could add between 20 million to 25 million units a year - between 2010 and 2020!

CHINA should be using around 16 million barrels crude oil a day by 2020, while Brazil will be using 3 million barrels crude oil a day!

cheerios!

Green DRagon
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[ Last edited by greendragon at 2011-1-17 12:37 PM ]

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Post time 2011-1-18 14:57:17 |Display all floors

The limits of the China and Brazil automobile market!

For both states, the development of the Middle Class - creation of full employment remains the key to get a automobile saturation market of 1 in 2.

For Brazil, it's China's, Europe's and Asian Trade Route State appetite for raw materials, commodities!
and these will finance the expansion of business franchises in their cities, reducing high unemployment!

While in China, assuming growth remains strong.....
It will need to find way to reduce fuel use per economic active citizen!

This has given impectus to the biggest AUTOMOBILE TECHNOLOGY revolution the earth has ever seen since the advent of mass production by Mr. Ford of Ford Motors in Detroit at the turn of the last century! While Toyota has introduced the PRIUS, the first commercial hybrid cars, GM, PSA-citroen + many major car builders are undertaking ELECTRIC CARS.

China is also taking interesting steps - by observing the Automobile market structure in key BRITISH/USA markets - where 3 tonnes COE/capita, and the more fuel use cautious states of EU/Asian Trade Route States 1.5 tonnes COE/capita!

It's obvious, from the EU/Asian Trade Route States - that it's (1) More Electrics for freight transport, (2) More Electrics for mass passenger moves, (3) Less Muscle Vehicles on the streets of China...........

and the new technologies (4) Fuel Sippers - hybrids, (5) Electric cars!
while old style city planning, structure that can (6) Reduce average annual mileage. (Example- 20,000km a year to 15,000km a year! This is done in Singapore, London, Road Pricing - in Hong Kong, Sdyney - high expense parking in inner city! Iin Japan, Precinct style cities - more work, live, shop, entertaining within precinct system!)

If China and Brazil get to have 1-2 car ownership ratio - we could be talking about 35 million to 70 million car sales a year post 2030! A lofty goal indeed, it could make or break PRESENT AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURER's pecking order!

cheerios!

Green DRagon
Game Master

[ Last edited by greendragon at 2011-1-18 03:23 PM ]

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Post time 2011-1-25 13:23:22 |Display all floors

Will the new FUEL CELL design arise from this urgent China need?

Only time will tell......

It's a race now....

cheerios!

Green DRagon
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Post time 2011-1-27 13:34:03 |Display all floors
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Post time 2011-1-31 12:54:04 |Display all floors

The race to create the "cheap light weight electric car"

........is probably a vital component in the NEXT GENERATION OF TECHNOLOGIES being slowly introduced into the MARKET PLACE.

Pretty unlikely for BATTERIES to be used widespread, due to low energy store/weight capability.
To run a 1.5 Tonne kerb weight vehicle for the standard 500 to 600 km range, We use an average pump of 55 litres - an electric car would need to add on a LOT OF WEIGHT to it's construct to compete on same capability.

Very likely a FUEL CELL, and standard store of "fuel" recombinant OR natural gas firing a high efficient "FUEL CELL" unit to be the alternative. The discovery of these capability would "herald in" a new wave of technological innovation!

cheerios!

Green DRagon
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Post time 2011-2-24 12:14:04 |Display all floors

A 60 million vehicle market in China and Brazil by year 2030!

It'll be amazing, something to aim for!

cheerios!

Green DRagon
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