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The limits of the China and Brazil automobile market!
For both states, the development of the Middle Class - creation of full employment remains the key to get a automobile saturation market of 1 in 2.|
For Brazil, it's China's, Europe's and Asian Trade Route State appetite for raw materials, commodities!
and these will finance the expansion of business franchises in their cities, reducing high unemployment!
While in China, assuming growth remains strong.....
It will need to find way to reduce fuel use per economic active citizen!
This has given impectus to the biggest AUTOMOBILE TECHNOLOGY revolution the earth has ever seen since the advent of mass production by Mr. Ford of Ford Motors in Detroit at the turn of the last century! While Toyota has introduced the PRIUS, the first commercial hybrid cars, GM, PSA-citroen + many major car builders are undertaking ELECTRIC CARS.
China is also taking interesting steps - by observing the Automobile market structure in key BRITISH/USA markets - where 3 tonnes COE/capita, and the more fuel use cautious states of EU/Asian Trade Route States 1.5 tonnes COE/capita!
It's obvious, from the EU/Asian Trade Route States - that it's (1) More Electrics for freight transport, (2) More Electrics for mass passenger moves, (3) Less Muscle Vehicles on the streets of China...........
and the new technologies (4) Fuel Sippers - hybrids, (5) Electric cars!
while old style city planning, structure that can (6) Reduce average annual mileage. (Example- 20,000km a year to 15,000km a year! This is done in Singapore, London, Road Pricing - in Hong Kong, Sdyney - high expense parking in inner city! Iin Japan, Precinct style cities - more work, live, shop, entertaining within precinct system!)
If China and Brazil get to have 1-2 car ownership ratio - we could be talking about 35 million to 70 million car sales a year post 2030! A lofty goal indeed, it could make or break PRESENT AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURER's pecking order!
[ Last edited by greendragon at 2011-1-18 03:23 PM ]