Author: greendragon

Global Megatrends 2009 to 2018! [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2009-12-28 12:28:38 |Display all floors

The rising incomes of China would mean more car buyers!

Based on Malaya-Singapore federation experiences, per capita Incomes of US$7,000 would mean 1 in 4 people would own an automobile, in Malaya Central region, per capita income is nearer US$15,000, 1 in 2 people owns a car, and when income goes above US$30,000, as in USA it reaches 1 in 1 ownership of automobiles! But once income exceed US$30,000, and where there is population density problems, Car ownership could fall as more people use PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION to solve basic problem of parking, congestion charges, obsolete laws (example in Europe, it's 1 car in 2 people and Singapore, it falls back to 1 car in 4 people).

GLOBAL CAR OWNERSHIP would reach 900 million units globally come 2018! (or 1 car - 7 people). This could mean car weight would be on the downward trend to average 1.2 Tonnes per vehicle as fuel efficiency needs mounts! Technology to increase fuel efficiency will expand, this means more aluminium alloy engines, better fuel injection-digital controlled engines, electric-fuel hybrids. Car sales in China would reach 25 million units annually by 2018!


MEGA TREND NO.5 Global car ownership would reach 900 million units in 2018. Cars would be lighter and more fuel efficient.


cheerios!

Green DRagon
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Post time 2010-1-4 13:05:06 |Display all floors

High crude oil prices, big trade surplus.

This is primarily a condition faced by the Arab Royalty ruled energy producing states, Asian Trade Route states and China! High Material Consumption Habit in the British Club, USA while commodity short Europe, would mean this regions will
be the main credit creation regions!

However as continued credit increase mean "reducing rate of returns", we would expect another new megatrend!
(Interest rate of bonds in USA, UK, Europe now is below 5%, reaching rates of 3.5% presently)

The Arabs will find new ways to spend the ENERGY BONANZA financial surplus to counter negative returns on their export profits. The initial response was to invest in USA, UK, and Trade Route states where corporate bourse and real estate are relatively liquid and have relax rules on foreign ownership. However such regions of investment are providing poorer returns as well. We do expect more Arab Consumption spending, such as the DUBAI city development in UAE, EASTERN SEABOARD in Saudi Arabia!

We expect more innovative investments. The first already seen is a US$40 billion nuclear power plant deal with the Koreans to build 3 power plants! As the Europeans, Russian has shown with the challenge of COLD weather during winter,The Arabs would be finding solution to fund lifestyles that would solve the HOT weather, and low water enviroment.

MEGA TREND NO. 6 Arab Energy rich, Royalty controlled states will consume domestically in more innovative lifestyle to prevent negative returns on the foreign investments. We could be see new ECO DOME cities in Arab states! In this lifestyle, huge domes will be build over precincts with low cost cooling system, controlled humidity to make life more comfortable!

That would make it possible to increased consumption besideds the traditional reliance on imports of weapons systems, oversea property, bourse investments to spend the energy export bonanza!


cheerios!

Green DRagon
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Post time 2010-1-5 11:19:13 |Display all floors

China would start to take advantage of Mother Nature manipulations!

Northern Chinese leaders would soon realize that working with MOTHER NATURE is truly beneficial. The water shortage in the Northern China would be solve with a series of solutions that would confound the American, European, Japanese and the British Club.

Old known technologies will combined with New Innovation to help solve or reduce the impact of WATER SHORTAGEs in Northern China. The forthcoming ROYALTY ruled ARAB plans for ECO-DOMEs could be undertaken by Chinese Engineering companies. For this Domes, cheaper version of the giant DOME structures will be built even in near Desert Region in China. With evaporation controlled, population can be housed together with agriculture. In urban regions, new water saving technology will be implemented for homes, offices and commercial space.

MEGA TREND NO.7  China would help develop technologies to produce ECO DOMEs for the Arabs. In learning skill to improve building ECO Domes, Chinese firms develops cheap clear polymer domes that could help make agriculture possible in desert conditions.


cheerios!

Green DRagon
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Post time 2010-1-11 11:08:19 |Display all floors

Renewal in the new Middle Kingdom!

The high liquidity created by the huge American Regime military adventure spending created a investment boom in real estate in the New Middle Kingdom and Dubai. This is added to the Game Master explaination the relationship between real estate health and credit creation!

In Malaya for instance, the Reits of UOA, Aseana, Quill, and foreign/local funds such as Lend Lease, Tabung Haji, ING created a construction boom in high quality new buildings in the City Centre, and it's satellite centres in Malaya Super centre. It created a complete URBAN RENEWAL, and will soon create "rental value drop" in older, less dense, poorer quality property. Malayan Real Estate guild will be buying en bloc those older district to rebuild land banks as the GREEN region in the Central Region needs to be protected for reason of climate, water catchment and recreation region!

In China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea - much the same is occuring due to fact of "developed state" of our society!  China begans to implement ZONING laws to protect low to medium housing for "popularity" sake!

MEGA TREND NO.8 A great new URBAN RENEWAL excercise is occuring in the NEW MIDDLE KINGDOM as thousands of new quality homes, offices, warehouses are complete circa 2012. Older neighbourhood will experience a fall in value and be purchase enbloc by real estate guild companies. Medium age real estate owner will engage in renovation to maintain value of their properties.

cheerios!


Green DRagon
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Post time 2010-1-13 11:08:00 |Display all floors

India, and the ASEAN trio - Vietnam, Luzon, Java competes....

.....for the expected post 2018 relocation of assembly industries from China! Currently China is upgrading is industrial mix, moving more to the top end of industries such as aerospace, ships, capital goods, medicine, military equipment, or such and increasing the service component, consumption in it's economy!

Java, Luzon, Vietnam and India is preparing for this new trend. However, China can only export around 100 million assembly industrial workers at maximum. This is just sufficient for Java, Luzon and Vietnam - so India should be working on preparing the groundwork to make India competitive to host such industries!

MEGA TREND NO.9  India and the ASEAN trio will be competiting to prepare groundwork for the expected influx of assembly industry from China. This could include acceptance of allowing FOREIGN OWNED INVESTMENT in their territories, creating the necessary workforce, infrastructure to support the expected trend!

cheerios!


Green DRagon
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Post time 2010-1-14 11:27:35 |Display all floors

China will sought to strengthen it's ties to....

....Asian Trade Route States and the British Club.

One of the way is to share out the China military procurement business, just like the American Regime! China could build a third enterprise AVIC-3 based in Guangzhou to develop weapon system, aerospace equipment in cooperation with Taiwan, Korea, Malaya, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and Canada!

MEGA TREND NO.10  China will be mulling to develop joint weapons systems with Asian Trade Route States and British Club to strengthen ties and ensure global balance!

cheerios!


Green DRagon
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Post time 2010-1-14 13:18:44 |Display all floors

With the changes in global strategic situation....

...more BIG POWERs will find that British Club and Asian Trade Route states wll be good place for neutral flag shipping!

MEGA TREND NO.11 Neutral flag shipping lines will boom as global trade expands.

cheerios!


Green DRagon
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