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Looks like our trade forecast was quite accurate! [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2009-11-25 13:49:34 |Display all floors
As expected the  DEVELOPED nations, empires, blocs suffered more. Some 30% falls in trade in 2009 in the first 9 months!

Data is still flowing in, (and we observe some American lead blips - like the October story of the Mae twins needs another credit injection by the Federal government - which is a simple transfer of numbers!!!! And the November story of crude price rise, when demand is down 1.5% globally? ha ha ha)


Well, Malaya and China seems on the dot!
First 9 months, Malaya trade down 23%, while China's trade down 16.3%!!!
(we said 15% down in the BBS, but if the American keeps sabotaging - it could be slightly more!!!!)

Trade of Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong + EU + British Club + USA fell 30%
However trade of EU, USA with China only fell less than 20% - closer to 15% by year end should the American Regime not sabotage sentiments!

ASEAN, Africa, South America, Persia benefited from China's Stimulus growth. This also help China to curtail severe drop in foreign trade as expected!

I supposed China is the biggest exporter in 2009, surpassing Germany (which would have suffered a 30% drop!!!!)






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Post time 2009-11-25 13:56:11 |Display all floors

The Supercentres of China as expected helped!!!

Property value rise, rising asset value created more domestic demand in China.

Helping the 2nd tier cities mostly in Zhejiang, Fujien, Anhui, Shandong, Jilin, Hubei, Jiangxi, Henan, Hunan, Shaanxi, Shanxi benefit with investments from MEGA companies originating from the Super centre. Demand of commodities continues to rise, absorbing reduce demand from EU, USA, British Club!

Investments remain robust, refinancing in Super centre - low BLR rates - less than 5.5% helped business, individuals cope in the New Middle Kingdom while the Americans, Europeans, British Club (except Australia) benefited greatly!

For the first time, automobile unit sales in China will exceed the United States!
(not value, as china's own made vehicles are 50% in value compared to the American Regime producers!)


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Post time 2009-11-25 13:59:27 |Display all floors

World trade volume only fell 6.3%!!!!!

That means, we need to stimulate demand to absorb the reduce capacity utilitzation rate!


Chinese business in the New Middle Kingdom as expected close obsolete plants, small inefficient manufacturers closed down and reinvented their businesses! New Middle Kingdom stimulus packages helped a lot, but we must be careful not to build inefficiently - like rails to nowhere.....(although i was pretty amazed, a modern textile plant in Malaya shuttered instead of the more inefficient units????? - probably a slap in my face by Hap Seng faction annoyed business people!)

It sucks big time to be helping!!!! everyone wants more!!!!



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[ Last edited by greendragon at 2009-11-25 02:03 PM ]

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Post time 2009-11-26 15:03:37 |Display all floors

On trying to link up the dots, with what we know about the markets..

..the 23% fall in trade value in Malaya, and 16.3% in China's trade with USA, EU does not mean the same in volume.

it appears in 2008, we had US$147 a barrel crude oil, coal at US$120 a tonne, timber, copper etc.

so, the world bank was right to say, only a global 6.3% contraction in first 9 months of 2009!
value fall corresponds with the credit squeeze happening in USA, Europe and British Club core states!

volume falls are high in durables such as cars, homes only in USA, Europe and British club's canada and british isles! (Australia continues to do very well with CHINA's rapid restructuring!)

i doubt with overcapacity looming, commodity or crude oil price can continue to rise as pressure to increase in late October and November 2009! We probably don't need inflation as it would cause more credit crunch now!


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[ Last edited by greendragon at 2009-11-26 03:04 PM ]

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Post time 2009-11-26 15:11:00 |Display all floors

with growth in China at 10%, and in Malaya - it's a small contraction...

..but not as big as in USA, Europe, and UK it's as big as 6% contraction...

probably the reason, why President Obama is sending another 35,000 troops to Afganistan. To spend more money in the army, annoy the Pakistanis, Persians as well!


geeeeze!

China is taking full advantage to continue urbanization, helping Africa, South East Asia, British Club states and South America with investments to increase commodity production to supply China and the world with needed products for economic growth!!!! (avoiding a collapse that will hurt the poor in those states!)


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Post time 2009-11-30 12:27:54 |Display all floors

British Club shows it's manipulative power too!

Dubai World debacle!

I always wonder how they manage to build a empty city in the desert with the only solid assets it has was the P&O port company, and some other assets such as the Chartered Semiconductor fabs in Singapore!

Yup! US$80 billion in debts, US$90 billion in asset value purchased!!!! (ie. supposedly net asset value of US$10 billion) but what of empty completed buildings across the world? US$80 billion is equal to US$1.0 trillion in banking assets or about 2-3% of the global banking assets worth approximately US$50 trillion!!!!

hmmmmm

another credit squeeze!

looks like another big mess!


ouchhh!!!!!!
3rd round of trouble!
(first sub prime - caused the banking trouble, then Mae trouble - 2nd round of credit squeeze)

eeeeeek!
(but look at the bright side, China & the New Middle Kingdom will now wipe up the consumption of commodities, improving lifes in China and the New Middle Kingdom - as the British Club, USA grapple with credit difficulties!!!)


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Post time 2009-11-30 12:38:40 |Display all floors

So, commodity prices will stabalized!

Don't get too HOT on high commodity prices!

but we got to prevent collapse of commodities as it will caused greater trouble!
China is the only EMPIRE of sufficient size, with the correct ECONOMIC STRUCTURE that can absorbed all the available commodities!

However stories in today's CHINA DAILY is worrying, a newly married couple, with 2 years working experiences, plonking down Rmb1.4 million for a 70 sq. m apartment in 2nd ring road area of Beijing! What is wrong with young people, borrowing from parents up to Rmb600,000 (rich parents!) and borrowing Rmb800,000......that's like in Hong Kong!!!!! Combined income only Rmb9,300 apparently!!!!!

Couples in supercentre normally saves for 5 to 10 years first (and staying in cheapo condition - i stay in a room with only mattress, a 16 inch tv, cheapo Sony mini hi fi for quite a number of years to save up cash!!!!!) before buying their first apartment. (well that Beijing couple in China Daily - could have save 6-7 years - save Rmb500,000 and plonk down for the first apartment in third ring road.....

aiyah! but people are like that, no patience!!!!


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