- Registration time
- Last login
- Online time
- 3186 Hour
- Reading permission
Reply #2 byronious's post
Well it gets complicated, mr. byronious's, i presume you are Amerikan?|
Well, look at it this way, the new FIVE STAR kongfu is changing equation worldwide.
(1) The Russian Federation gains friends and allies in the NEW ENERGY BLOC. This mainly refers to Russian Federation, Central Asian, Persian, Venezeula and later maybe include Brazil as well, and nominally the West leaning Arabs. They control almost 30 mbd of exportable crude oil. Their main target is to keep crude oil prices at suitable level, namely at present between US$70 to US$100 per barrel in order to finance their own state's growth while not igniting INFLATION by overpricing the commodity.
This creates pressure on the Amerikan Twin Trade Defisit, which is mainly ENERGY (from Latin America but switching to Arab sources) and CONSUMERABLEs (from mainly Asia Pacific). The Russian MILITARY BUDGET rise to US$50 billion which on PPP basis must be at least US$150 billion or half of the Amerikan non-war recurrent budget.
conclusion: Amerikan Regime needs to maintain military budget, and maintain influence among Arab states. (expect Arab states to improve alliances with the British Club and China)
(2) European Union success in increasing their MINT of the EURO. This has in effect reduce the demand of the US$. At the present moment, the ECONOMIST estimates that almost 40% of the world forex reserves is non Amerikan. (approximately 27% EURO, 5% STERLING, 3.5% YEN, 4.5% rest of the world). This means Amerikan Regime mints has to be more conservative otherwise, INFLATION brought in by overminting would be strong and the Amerikan Regime would have to resort to more frequent FINANCIAL CRISIS.
Conclusion: This would mean less big ticket items like the Aircraft carrier which cost more than US$25-30 billion to built and fit-up.
(3) China and the New Middle Kingdom. The challenges by the New Middle Kingdom which is estimated to spend up to 0.5% of it's GNP on the next frontier, Space is a big challenge to Amerikan Supremacy in the future, post 2030. At the moment China is spending around Rmb120 billion on its space programme annually. The ability to control an present hundred of billion dollar industry and in the future possibly TRILLION DOLLAR INDUSTRY is at stake.
Telecommunication, Satellite broadcasting, Earth Mapping, and in near future, Space Tourism, Space Station Hotels, and later on NO GRAVITY MANUFACTURING OF PRECIOUS MATERIALs, and DEEP SPACE MINING including COLONIZING OF MOON, to construction of space station on moon possibility (low gravitation pull means very much cheaper space station).
The Amerikan Regime would have to increase it's budget to NASA. Amerikan half hearted "man moon mission" is miserable whereas China's LONG MARCH 5, with 30 rockets a year programme with 5.2 metre, 28tonne payload programme, possibly a "stratosphere airship, passenger launch facility" or "winged aircraft passenger launch programme" is more innovative and aggressive.
(4) British Club control of the FINANCIAL, COMMODITY TRADE and EXCELLENT LOGISTIC NODEs means that British Club would need to be NEUTRAL while be the FINANCIAL SUPERMARKET of the 3 possible large minting nation.
This has an effect of improving MINTING in the European Union and later for the New Middle Kingdom two main minters, China and Japan.
(5) Arab, Central Asia and Persia. The Amerikan regime cannot afford to lose control or influence in this part of the Energy bloc which has Russian Federation as the key military protoganist. China also has the interest to provide army support if rhetorics changes into hot battle. So, MESOPOTAMIA occupation, AFGANISTAN occupation is likely to continue. This cost the Amerikan a lot of money, almost 50% more than it's normal recurrent military budget of US$390 billion...to more than US$650-700 billion.
Look like budget deficit and overminting needs to continue.
now, isn't that a handful to think about.