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Views: 74750|Replies: 149

Is the Chinese economy for real or a bubble bound to burst? [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2005-12-12 11:28:22 |Display all floors
I am interested in what you think.
Thanks!

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2005-12-12 11:38:07 |Display all floors

Why shld it burst when everyone is interested to find money!!!

If there are no large scale over development eg homes or complexes, things shld be fine. Let hope nature is kind to us that the birds are ok.

I see people like to use new products be it electronics or cosmetics!!!

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What's on your mind now........ooooooooooooooo la la....Kind Regards
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Rank: 4

Post time 2005-12-12 15:39:22 |Display all floors
The government must get harsher in curbing housing investment. It's unbelievable that so many new houses are built every year and many of them are left there vacant, but the housing prices continue its hike.

However, though overcapacity does exist in some industries, I don't think Chinese economy is for real a bubble to burst ~~~~~~ at least in the next 10 years~~
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Post time 2005-12-12 15:50:41 |Display all floors

take a look at this. China's housing sector is really overheated.

Housing prices of 70 cities up 6.8% in Nov.
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2005-12-12 10:12

Housing prices of 70 Chinese cities rose on average 6.8 percent year on year in November this year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than October, said a report of the National Development and Reform Commission on Friday.

The report said three cities, namely Hohhot, Dalian and Shenzhen, saw the biggest increases of sales prices for newly built commercial housing in November.

In Hohhot, the capital of north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the sales price of newly built commercial housing rose by 15.7 percent, and in Dalian, a coastal city in Northeast China's Liaoning Province, the price was up 15.1 percent, while the sales price of newly built commercial houses in Shenzhen in south China rose by 10.9 percent.

Meanwhile, housing prices in 15 cities, including Shanghai, Nanjing, Guilin, Sanya, Haikou, Lanzhou and Changsha, fell after the Chinese central government adopted a slew of measures aiming to cool down the overheated property market, the report said.
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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2005-12-12 16:27:33 |Display all floors

Thank you alee_dodo

I really appreciate that you as a moderator have taken the time to join this discussion.

The incredible rate in construction is I believe, a possible factor in a future economic collapse.

What makes you think the economy is safe for "at least the next 10 years"?

What do you think might happen after "10 years"?
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Rank: 4

Post time 2005-12-12 16:52:58 |Display all floors
Well, I'm sure the boom in the overheated real estate is a real bubble that will burst very soon, but I don't think it will lead to the collapse of the entire economy.

As far as I know, many people predicted five years ago that the Chinese economic bubble would burst soon. However, we all see that China has been doing fairly well in sustaining the booming economic development these years. Why?

It's because of the government regulation. As Chinese President Hu said, China would take measures to cool down the economy. If the measures are resolute enough and effectively enforced, the growth will have a solft-landing, and not all players but just some in overheated industries will suffer a heavy blow.

So, the government will surely take stringent measures to curb overheating, and moderate the growth. I think it will take at least 10 years for the bubble to burst, even if it'sreally a bubble. There is still time for regulatory measures to be taken to prevent the situation from worsening~~ Anyway, we, as ordinary people, can only wait and see~ ha

[ Last edited by alee_dodo at 2005-12-12 04:55 PM ]
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Post time 2005-12-12 18:55:19 |Display all floors

Actually, the economy needs some bubbles to keep fresh and moving

Though there is probably some hidden bubbles in China's overall economy, housing industry, esp,  I don't think it will burst to pieces. Otherwise, like the beer we drink each summer day, the economy needs bubbles ( but not too many) to keep it fresh, and powering ahead.

And, housing sector, like automotives, is a major growth point in every developed economy, like HK, Like the united states. I will suggest the government to oversee the annual price growth of housing at a level in tandem with China's GDP rise, about 9%, and that will be healthy!  

Exceeding 12% a year would be heated, 15% or more will be over-heated;  less than 5% would mean a cool-down of China's consumption market, and the overall economy.

I expect that more and more Middle Class households in China's cities will buy more housing, autos, and other daily goods, to support the economy keeping going....

that is my wish.

[ Last edited by freeman at 2005-12-12 06:57 PM ]
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