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Did U.S. intelligence underestimate N Ks nuclear weapons and missile programs? [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2018-1-20 20:18:02 |Display all floors

Did U.S. intelligence agencies underestimate North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs? A recent New York Times article claimed President Trump was told that his administration would have at least four years “to slow or stop its development of a missile capable of hitting an American city with a nuclear warhead.”

Nuclear hide-and-seek dates back to World War II. Since then, there have been episodes of overblown proliferation panic as well as surprise revelations of nuclear weapons development.

Is it unusual for analysts to downplay the progress of a nuclear program?

I spent several years digging through government archives and filed declassification requests to find answers to this question. My research compared how accurately U.S., British and West and East German intelligence tracked nuclear programs during the Cold War. U.S. intelligence performed best, followed by the British.

Nuclear espionage is always a challenge. Governments conceal their nuclear activities from curious foreign eyes. And even the biggest intelligence budget and the latest spy gadgetry do not guarantee omniscience.

Nuclear weapons are both a function of a state’s ability to acquire them — and its wish to do so. Knowing which technologies and materials a country has is enough for estimates of ability. Whether a country wants to build weapons, and how fast, might not even be known to its leaders.

The spies are all right

Despite the difficulties, Western intelligence agencies have a remarkably good record in tracking the spread of nuclear weapons technology. By my calculations, British and U.S. intelligence estimates were correct well over 90 percent of the time. Continental European intelligence assessors erred in half of their proliferation estimates.

That U.S. intelligence is among the best in the world at tracking proliferation may come as a surprise. Scholars, journalists and politicians tend to look at big unrepresentative intelligence failures — such as Pearl Harbor or the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks — and draw their conclusions about the intelligence community’s analytical capacity.

Democratic accountability processes — ranging from legislative inquiries to news investigations — expose assessment failures rather than the baseline of competence.

Underestimation is the norm

While large errors might be rare, they recur in patterns. My research shows intelligence agencies are more prone to underestimate the progress a country is making than to exaggerate it. Since the 1960s, underestimates were 10 times as common as overestimates. During the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, for example, the CIA failed to providestrategic warning of deployment of missiles to Cuba.

But the 2003 exaggerations of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction are also seared into history. It was a major exception to have U.S. intelligence overestimate another country’s nuclear weapons potential. An underestimate of North Korea would be more typical of historical trends.

My research revealed four other trends:

1) Size stumps spies: The larger and more complex a nuclear program, the less correct the proliferation assessments were. Programs that produced nuclear energy were more likely to be mischaracterized by intelligence agencies. Simply collecting more information about bigger programs does not seem to offset the problems with tracking complex capabilities.

2) Safeguards for civilian technology improve intelligence: Many of the same technologies and materials that can generate nuclear energy are also needed to build nuclear weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitors civilian nuclear programs to keep this technology from building nuclear weapons. More stringent IAEA inspection protocols tended to produce better intelligence assessments about the nuclear programs. Even if inspectors are only checking the accounting of open nuclear installations, their presence makes concealing secret work on weapons much harder.

3) Trade is not transparency: Intelligence assessments of import-heavy programs are typically less accurate, however. This is counterintuitive because it should be easier to track international supply chains.

Intelligence about the A.Q. Khan illicit nuclear supply network in 2004, for example, blew the lid off Libya’s mail-order nuclear program. Khan started his career as an importer of goods under the watch of British and U.S. intelligence — but this fact did not save them from underestimating Pakistan’s nuclear progress.

4) Words work wonders, at times: Sometimes leaders announce whether they want nuclear weapons. That helps intelligence analysts, at least most of the time.

In my research, formal diplomatic commitments proved to be information-rich for intelligence assessors. Intelligence analysts do not naively accept promises of nuclear abstention, but looked at the restrictions governments were unwilling to agree to for clues about which options governments wanted to save for future use


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Post time 2018-1-20 20:54:33 |Display all floors
Where there's a will, there's way.
The US has certainly provided North Korea with the will by occupying the southern half of the
Korean peninsula for the past 70 years.
It's not hard to see that China's tremendous efforts to obtain nuclear weapons in the early
1960s has kept them safe from western subjugation.
Western military presence must pull out of east Asia if there is to be peace.
If capitalism promotes innovation and creativity then why aren't scientists and artists the richest people in a capitalist nation?

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Post time 2018-1-23 09:20:55 |Display all floors
Robert: As usual, we both agree and disagree. 1. There was never a serious western plan to invade China. Just a "containment". 2. But, indeed, the US must pull out of South Korea (but not Japan) so China can confidently arrange peace in Korea (and re-unite with Taiwan). This would enable a more respectful and friendly relationship between China and the USA. An equal relationship devoted to maintaining the peace and prosperity of both countries (and the entire world).
My problem is simple: I just know better than everyone-else!

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Post time 2018-7-11 00:25:16 |Display all floors
Ted180 Post time: 2018-1-23 09:20
Robert: As usual, we both agree and disagree. 1. There was never a serious western plan to invade Ch ...

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