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This post was edited by sfphoto at 2017-11-26 18:27|
seneca Post time: 2017-11-26 15:30
You Chinese can brag about the numbers of Chinese customers but you cannot brag about the lack of number of creative minds that design products of excellence such as Elon Musk's electric car which he does not really want to make in China but will make because there is no other way for him to sell it to the sheer number of Chinese customers.
China has some 200 electric vehicle manufacturers that produce all kinds of electric vehicles: two-wheeled mopeds, three-wheeled tricyles and four-wheeled electric vehicles. These Chinese companies hold 96% of the domestic market for electric vehicles with the rest being TESLA. China also commands ninety percent of the world's electric motorcycles. So my point being that Elon Musk needs China for both for its EV market and industry. As it is, the landed cost (taxes, shipping, tariffs) of his TESLA electric sportscars is too prohibitive for him to target the mass-market for EVs in China which is already the world's largest and fastest-growing. Thus, he needs to manufacture his cars in China to lower the costs of production as well as take advantage of the increasing sophistication of China's EV technology by sourcing components and subsystems from Chinese EV suppliers in order to compete against Chinese EV manufacturers.
The numbers game also has a reverse side: if China is so important to the West, how important was China when Chinese could not afford a car of their own? Yes, only three decades back, and an ordinary Chinese person's dream of a means of locomotion was a FLYING PIGEON with two wheels two pedals and one gear. Now bicycles are out of fashion and cars are in... For how long?
Let me address this point just by citing the USA as an EV market and industry since TESLA is a US company. The USA has a big market for GAS not ELECTRIC vehicles even though some hybrid models have been sold there for quite some time. The reason why China is so important to EV manufacturers such as TESLA is because the Chinese EV manufacturers began producing EVs quite early for a good reason: they couldn't compete against the established foreign auto MNCs setting up shop in China producing GAS vehicles just like in the USA. But those same MNCs were reluctant to produce EVs because they felt EVs would cannibalize GAS vehicles. So that's how the Chinese EV market and industry got started because it's simpler, easier and cheaper to produce ELECTRIC vehicles compared to GAS vehicles BY AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE.
But Elon Musk has a problem: TESLA is a US company producing for the US market. Without the political and financial support of the Obama Adminstration, TESLA would have gone under and most likely will disappear with the Trump Administration's growing support of the Oil Industry which is hostile to EVs. This is why Elon Musk is talking with Chinese authorities to setup manufacturing plants to produce TESLA EVs for the Chinese market for the simple reason that without China, TESLA will simply go out of business in the next few years.
One last thing I want to point out is that EVs need ELECTRIC POWER, lots of it. But China has already committed to building POWER PLANTS to supply ELECTRIC POWER to high-speed trains as well as electric vehicles. So China has all the pieces of the EV puzzle: market, industry, technology and infrastructure. And that's why I think the TESLA has a good chance of succeeding in China but not in the USA.