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COUNTDOWN KOREA [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2017-10-29 02:57:36 |Display all floors
Three top carrier battle groups, a million-man army south of the DMZ, and a ring of fire surrounding North Korea on three sides, a visit to the front line by the top Defense official, and finally, a tour of the surrounding forces by VP Pence and then by the POTUS himself, Trump, can have only four outcomes.

  
  

NK  AGREES TO DENUCLEARIZE

NK  REFUSES TO DENUCLEARISE

MARGINAL  PROBABILITIES

  

ALLIES AGREE TO  GUARANTEE PEACE

  

PEACE TREATY

  

(0.0005)

NK WINS, TRUMP SHRINKS

  

(0.0045)

0.05

  

ALLIES REFUSE TO  GUARANTEE PEACE

  

ALLIES WIN, KIM CRUMBLES

  

(0.0095)

WAR

  

(0.9405)

0.95

  

MARGINAL PROBS

  

0.01

0.99

1.00


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Post time 2017-10-29 03:02:01 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abcfirst at 2017-10-29 03:02

Clearly, "war" seems to be about 95% probable.  Unfortunately, NK interprets "war" mistakenly as simply the status quo, not as an escalation to a new phase of intensity.  The three carrier groups is Trump's way of signaling to Kim, this time, "war" means "real war".

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Post time 2017-10-29 03:37:05 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abcfirst at 2017-10-29 03:39

As to why the markets are so optimistic, maybe the market knows a lot more than the public is allowed to know, but since the markets are practically 99.9% outside North Korea, the market must know that regardless of the four outcomes, the world outside NK will not be significantly affected.  Or, that "war" is just "status quo" as NK perceives it, and nothing will happen.

That might be the best solution for the markets, but it might not be for Trump or Abe, because in effect, it would be equivalent to a victory by NK, and defiance cannot be rewarded with victory.

Trump faults China for not demanding NK's denuclearization, but Kim could also fault China for not demanding Allies' guarantee of peace and normalization of ties.  That China is not powerful enough to demand either, or to enforce both, is not China's fault.  The two sides made it clear to China through their own actions, that China cannot stand in their way, and even threatened China with sanctions or reprisals that negate her authority and her strength.

If both sides ignore and threaten China as a referee or judge, how can they blame China for not upholding what is just and fair?

This is why China and Russia are letting the two sides play it out on their own terms.  Putting pressure on China while bullying China only diminishes the credibility of China as a peacemaker, and if Trump thinks he can strong-arm China into besieging North Korea and starving it into submission on pain of being subject to the same treatment otherwise, then the problem becomes a war on China to upend North Korea, which three carrier groups would be inadequate to meet.  But if Trump were to promise to respect China's authority in arbitrating its dispute with North Korea, he would have to stop challenging China's own claims of sovereignty over its 200-plus islands in the South China Sea, for every Freedom of Navigation exercise within China's territorial seas negates its ability to guarantee the sovereignty of North Korea, as it fails to guarantee its own sovereignty in the South China Sea.  Thus, pressuring China will not produce a referee, but will likely force Trump to make good his threats on China, because he could not make good his threats on North Korea, avoiding the embarrassment of the latter by transferring the dispute to the former, and making the success of the former contingent of the latter campaign, one that is a hundred times harder and more dangerous.  

Trump should therefore be extra cautious not to jump from the frying pan into the fire by making threats on China, and being forced to make good his threats by is political enemies at home, or by his supporters who even now wanted a trade war with China.  Unless Trump is prepared to make concessions about the possibility of a guarantee of peace and normalization of ties with North Korea, his trip to China would have more risks than benefits, and therefore, cannot be made into the lynch pin of his Korean policy.






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Post time 2017-10-29 04:40:10 |Display all floors


Rumor has it or just it's me that I heard North Korea likes to liberate Australia continent in Asia-Pacific from Anglo invaders, which worried me a great deal, since this might cause USA a reason to nuke DPRK, just like it happened with Japan in the past.  

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Post time 2017-10-29 06:42:55 |Display all floors
The constant harassment of Trump by Dems and establishment Republicans to try to impeach him and indict his associates gives him even less time to weigh the pro's and con's of military actions against NK.  His own party's refusal to overhaul Obamacare while insisting on shorting Medicare and Medicaid also gives him headaches, and eats away his time to think through Korea.  How would Napoleon feel if he were told Paris was being looted while facing Wellington's army?  If America were to lose this battle, they will blame him, of course, even if they helped him lose it.  Trump's best bet is to let common sense lead him forward - promise NK the carrot of a permanent peace with normalization of ties, while showing the stick of massive war if it does not denuclearize.  If he is all stick and no carrots, he will have to use his stick, and expect Kim to use his, shorter stick, with mutual losses that will be historic.

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Post time 2017-10-29 06:51:09 |Display all floors
sobabe Post time: 2017-10-29 04:40
Rumor has it or just it's me that I heard North Korea likes to liberate Australia continent in Asi ...

It is important that you mention Australia, which like UK, seems to want Trump to finish off NK with all the costs and casualties born by America and South Korea, with less damage to its ex-colony of Meiji, and least to Australia and UK.  Australia has not escaped the attention of Kim.  It got the letter from NK about its position, not because it was a special friend, but because it was perceived as an enemy.  Australia and the UK have everything to gain, and little to lose from a war between NK and the Allies, as they are outside the threat of NK's arsenal.  It would be better for everyone if Australia pushed for a peace treaty, than for the annihilation of NK on the merest pretext, because it does not know what NK really can do, does it?

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Post time 2017-10-29 11:44:38 |Display all floors
The situation requires an agreement between China, ROK and USA to organize a coup to get rid of the Kim government and replace it by a China-controlled government. China can disarm the DPRK. Then the US forces can leave Korea. It shouldn't be hard to get the DPRK generals to cooperate. They'll be rewarded handsomely! Meanwhile, everyone needs to avoid war.
My problem is simple: I just know better than everyone-else!

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