Author: 1584austin

Is war with North Korea inevitable?   [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2017-9-23 01:08:27 |Display all floors
Part II of II


Option Two
U.S. intelligence officials receive evidence that North Korea has successfully miniaturized a nuclear weapon and married it to an ICBM capable of reaching Los Angeles. All diplomatic avenues having been exhausted, President Trump approves the largest military air campaign in modern history. Again, not all the consequences outlined here will eventuate, but given the recommendation for war, a special responsibility exists in ensuring that all credible risks are laid bare.

Consequences
1. War (obviously)
North Korea is hit by a massive cyber-attack that disables communications, shuts down the power grid, and cripples command and control chains. Minutes later the sky lights up with massive ordinance as MOABs detonate over North Korean nuclear facilities and launch platforms. Thousands of North Korean artillery pieces are similarly struck, along with all palatial compounds. By the time the attack is generally known in Pyongyang, North Korea’s forces have already been seriously degraded. Eventually, low-level commanders acting under their own initiative commence an un-coordinated retaliatory action primarily targeted at Seoul. The subsequent artillery barrage kills some 30,000 people before the guns are found and destroyed. After these initial setbacks, North Korea is given some time to re-group as the American air campaign focuses obsessively on suspected nuclear sites. 36 hours later North Korea retaliates with a massive ballistic missile bombardment of Japan, killing thousands. Meanwhile, North Korean submarines attack American surface ships, somewhat complicating carrier-based sorties over the peninsula. Using hitherto undetected tunnels, thousands of North Korean troops appear south of the DMZ. They are pushed back with heavy losses on both sides, as huge numbers of marines arrive in preparation for an invasion of the North.

2. Nuclear escalation
Despite every effort, North Korea manages to hit Japan with two nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles in the closing stages of the conflict, killing close to 300,000 civilians. The U.S. responds with low-yield nuclear bunker-busters; however, this is largely tokenistic as North Korea is already lost. This attack shatters world markets already rattled by the conflict, and panic spreads about possibilities of “loose nukes” being smuggled out as the regime collapses. Recriminations occur in the aftermath over who allowed this to happen and what more should have been done to prevent it. Combined with the large numbers of combat casualties, questions over whether the war was worthwhile or necessary precipitates political crises in multiple capitals.

3. Economic crisis
The financial burden of the war is crippling and American economic recovery immediately falters. First, there is the trillion-dollar price tag for the combat operations plus post-war occupation and reconstruction. Regional trade has been smashed in the most economically dynamic region on Earth, and yet despite the slowdown in global trade oil prices skyrocket, intensifying the hardship. The world slides back into yet another deep recession, once again with the United States at its epicenter. Recovery is painstakingly slow as Japan reels from the conflict and Korea commences the generational task of incorporating North Korea. Even China’s recovery is slower than expected as it seeks to manage the millions of North Korean refugees that have poured across the border.

4. Chinese and Russian assertiveness
Aware that they cannot yet challenge the U.S. militarily, China’s intervention is restricted to the far north to stem the flow of refugees and to deter American forces from pushing too close to the border. Nevertheless, China does seek to tie down the U.S. in yet another quagmire by quietly supporting North Korean insurgents, while fortifying their own positions on Korean territory. Beijing also makes clear to Seoul that with the peninsula unified the U.S. should have no long-term role, and that Chinese withdrawal is contingent on America’s own. Meanwhile Russia, scarcely believing it’s good fortune, employs salami tactics to push into the Baltic States, knowing that America can ill-afford a conflict on two continents.

As with Option One, there are other possibilities, but these are matters of degree. One or two additional nuclear weapons could be detonated in allied territory, or North Korea’s military could be less degraded in the initial attack than anticipated. Finally, while the chance of direct Chinese intervention is low given the current military balance, there are ways this could occur and must not be ruled out. Any such intervention would almost certainly escalate into World War III, as Russia would also take advantage of this and invade the Baltic countries overtly. Even if none of this occurs, the U.S. should expect combat losses exceeding a hundred thousand – to say nothing of the millions of North Koreans dead, both military and civilian.
This analysis has rightly focused on the negative consequences of each decision; however, it is necessary to also assess potential benefits. With Option One there are none. But war would: prove that nuclear weapons do not confer unfettered license to threaten world peace, unify an artificially divided people, and extinguish a regime that is an affront to the human race. Moreover, depending on how it progressed, the war could bolster America’s long-term position in Asia by proving America’s ability to sustain high-intensity operations in the Western Pacific and giving China pause.

Despite potential upsides, the prospect of such a conflict should greet no-one with any kind of enthusiasm. And yet, when having to choose between a mutual deterrence relationship with North Korea and war on the peninsula, then the latter is the only viable option.

Crispin Rovere is a member of the Australian Labor Party and previous convenor of the ACT ALP International Affairs Policy Committee. Formerly he was a Ph.D. candidate at the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre (SDSC) and previously worked in Secretariat of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, and published on nuclear policy. Crispin is the author of The Trump Phenomenon: How One Man Conquered America.
This first appeared in RealClearDefense here [5] in July.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

2016 Most Valuable Member Medal Gold Medal

Post time 2017-9-23 08:35:12 |Display all floors
Boston101 Post time: 2017-9-23 00:41
And you speak for yourself. I cringe every time you speak. Your antifa rhetoric is an embarrassmen ...



Meanwhile the gold price is reaching loftier and loftier heights...  

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2017-9-23 15:06:19 |Display all floors
seneca Post time: 2017-9-23 08:35
Meanwhile the gold price is reaching loftier and loftier heights...

Yes the pain...
    It hit $29 in 2011.
  In early January, bitcoin broke $1,000 for the first time in years and started climbing like crazy. By June, the currency nudged $3,000—but then lurched back all of a sudden, falling 36% to $1,869 by mid-July.
    It climbed close to $5,000 at the start of September before plunging 37% by September 15, 2017.

From 30 bucks to 5000 bucks, about time China is doing away with this crap...
   The pain in the West will be felt all the way to Puerto Rico...
  Some 65,000 Puerto Ricans left their bankrupt U.S. island commonwealth last year. A group of private bankers are moving the other way.
Just in the last six months, they’ve probably closed seven deals for international banks,” says R. C., president of C... Commercial Real Estate, a brokerage based in Puerto Rico that leases office space.


Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

2016 Most Valuable Member Medal Gold Medal

Post time 2017-9-23 15:17:09 |Display all floors
emanreus Post time: 2017-9-23 15:06
Yes the pain...
    It hit $29 in 2011.
  In early January, bitcoin broke $1,000 for the first tim ...



Do you think any genius understands the gibberish you just posted? And no, I am not really a genius, bright though I may be in comparison with you.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2017-9-23 15:35:23 |Display all floors
seneca Post time: 2017-9-23 15:17
Do you think any genius understands the gibberish you just posted? And no, I am not really a gen ...

well, you might be;
you might not be a successful China basher...

The last thing in this world of ours I wish to be is:
@ genius...

Agood common sense, life experience around the globe which can only be achieved with age...
Tell you what ol'chap, your bashing is wasting your limited life-time ...

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2017-9-23 15:50:03 |Display all floors
seneca Post time: 2017-9-23 08:35
Meanwhile the gold price is reaching loftier and loftier heights...

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

2016 Most Valuable Member Medal Gold Medal

Post time 2017-9-23 19:59:44 |Display all floors
emanreus Post time: 2017-9-23 15:35
well, you might be;
you might not be a successful China basher...
Agood common sense, life experience around the globe which can only be achieved with age...
Tell you what ol'chap, your bashing is wasting your limited life-time ...


We know yu ae breating some of your last breaths but you have not attained the noble station marked by "common sense" and "experience". You sound like a born goof.

Use magic tools Report

You can't reply post until you log in Log in | register

BACK TO THE TOP
Contact us:Tel: (86)010-84883548, Email: blog@chinadaily.com.cn
Blog announcement:| We reserve the right, and you authorize us, to use content, including words, photos and videos, which you provide to our blog
platform, for non-profit purposes on China Daily media, comprising newspaper, website, iPad and other social media accounts.