Author: abcfirst

SOUTH KOREA - AN UNEXPECTED PROBABLE INITIATOR OF THE NEXT KOREAN WAR [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2017-9-22 12:58:45 |Display all floors
In saying it's solely a US-NK problem, China has kicked the ball back to the US. In turn the US took the ball and its rightwing striker is now barrelling down the field towards the NK goalpost. On the ball is finally written the words, 'total economic sanction'.

The US intends to starve the entire NK population come winter in the calculation Kim will stop his launches and on its own start denuclearisation to earn the removal of total trade embargo.  In effect, the US has slammed its penultimate card on the table even before the game starts.

How will the NK goalkeeper assess his prospects of thwarting the slow-kill strike of strangulation by sanction? The only question left for NK to now ask is whether it can survive the total trade embargo while still achieving its aim to be a full-fledged nuclear state.

A subset of that question is its assessment of how the US can withstand a post 9/11-syndrome of bigger magnitude if the US preemptively strikes NK during the coming months and NK retaliates with a nuclear launch that while it may only achieve symbolic damage for being limited in accuracy on a target by dint of its distance, the other two simultaneous launches on J and SK which are closer and more densely populated will inevitably cause catastrophic damage that will not heal for all the deals of the world.

If the answers are nevertheless not in favor of NK, then the US-China November summit meeting will be pivotal - from the viewpoint of not just NK but thus also J and SK - even when the US is now in half a mind going forward to discount China's role as broker of peace.

It therefore behoves J and SK to throw their support behind China to counterbalance any US unilateral action that will precipitate their destruction by the hand of an NK which upon realizing it will be losing everything when the US strikes, so too will its historical antagonists whose survivors will next have to live with the same US on their respective soils as the one which has bullied NK to retaliate and cause their grief because the same NK will no longer exist for any blame to be possibly assignable that will reduce their lamentations.  In the case of SK many of whose citizens have families in NK, the grief will be double.

Meanwhile the US may be basking in its sliced salami tactic of externally strangling NK into an expected internal decomposition but at least three imponderables hover over this the US' benko gambit of total sanctions; to be more accurate it is less a benko gambit than a new version of the scheveningen variation to the sicilian dragon but that's just academic in the face of the gravity of the situation.  The three imponderables are NK's ability to get at least some of its nukes across the pacific unchallenged, NK's ability to surmount the sanctions, and NK's capacity to proliferate its nuclear knowhow.

For the first, it has been reported the present accuracy of the US' missile long-range interception capabilities are between 40-80 percent.  Having subs near the NK coast may increase the accuracy range but NK just needs one to get through to cause permanent scar and embed emulable precedent.  As with the downing of the US helicopter in Afghanistan with all 38 special forces members lost onboard from one rpg hitting a rotor blade, luck may play a hand.

For the second, the US may next execute a total naval blockade to bar ships from turning up at NK ports even if that means the US will have to divert an enormous quantity of satellite tracking to cover all inbound ships with deactivated transponders for that matter switched ship names or midsea transshiped cargo.  

It is the third imponderable that will throw the ultimate monkey wrench into the US works to maintain its primacy as top global hegemon.

In annihilating NK, the US may destroy NK's body but NK's nuclear mind read expertise would before that have osmosed into the global network of all who are disgruntled with the hegemon for one reason or another so that by an unwise move, a known enemy in a fixed box will metastatize into many unknown enemies out in the open. If and when that happens, neither prevention nor cure will be any panache anywhere on this planet whether to the US itself or to its putative allies. Slow-kill will then become death from a thousand cuts.

When a die has been cast and men, women and children will be dying because of it, one must solemnly ask if there is another way out.  After all, to save one life is to save all humanity, an old jewish saying once resonated - and that is mentioned here particularly for the jewish mastermind in Trump's neck of woods who has been plotting the escalation towards a military option on the back of economic sanctions;  he knows who he is but he will not know what he will be in his next life if he continues his batting mind aggression.

Seasoned campaigners of conflict dissolutions may suggest a novel if somewhat sublime way out.  When a particular problem seems overwhelming, it may make sense to make it bigger so that its frame of reference enlarges to capture in its radar another solution in the background. Taking a leaf from quantum field theory, if a particular path outcome is opaque, sum all the possible path outcomes by adding all the squares of the amplitudes of the path wavefunctions so that mutual wave interference and reinforcement in the transition to a solution will respectively knock off or strengthen one another to result in a single final outcome probability that is the only solution.

Interpreting this liberally because it is time for lunch, why only a US-NK peace treaty as the solution when you can have a pan-Asian non-nuclear peace treaty sans the US that will last longer, heal faster and grow bigger?

Even the Third Master would endorse it, don't you agree?












Use magic tools Report

Rank: 4

Post time 2017-9-23 14:25:46 |Display all floors
Sorry, Mark, but my post has been possibly sent for censorship, and may or may not surface here.

The bottom line is, if Trump REALLY wants a PEACE TREATY that guarantees permanent Peace and permanent Denuclearization, he should empower China, not intimidate China to intimidate North Korea, because if North Korea sees an intimidated China coming to ask it to denuclearize, it will all the more fear for its security after it denuclearizes, as China would in its mind be incapable of enforcing any Peace guarantee on the Allies were they to renege on their promise as with Gaddafi.  The more Trump and his treasury secretary threatens China and show that China has to obey their demands, the less China will appear as a credible broker and guarantor of the Peace Treaty it proposes, and thus, the more adamant North Korea will be in holding fast to its nuclear power, and rely solely on it for its survival.  This has been the case for more than ten years now, and is probably one of the main reasons why North Korea lost interest in the Six Party Talks.

All Trump has to say, even now, at the end of his tirades against Kim, is:  "However, if North Korea is sincerely interested in concluding a Peace Treaty that includes permanent and comprehensive denuclearization of North Korea in return for a permanent and comprehensive peace guarantee by the US and its allies, guaranteed by China, Russia and backed by the UN Security Council, the door is wide open, and we are ready to talk like gentlemen to achieve these goals."

The fact that Trump and his advisers have either refused or avoided such verbiage proves in the mind of North Korea, as well as China and Russia, that the real goal of the sanctions is not denuclearization but still, as always, regime change, which is something that North Korea will never agree to, and thus becomes a smokescreen for responding to any accident or provocation with total war, which as mentioned before, would be the most logical strategy for Japan to push for through its lobbyists.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 4

Post time 2017-9-23 14:50:06 |Display all floors
Once again, my next post has been blocked.

Just as well, with things as bad as they are, and are destined to be, what I say would be irrelevant.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2017-9-23 15:49:03 |Display all floors
The fact you are able to post your comments above reflects they resonate with China's concerns on the matter.

All would have noted by now that Abe has finally shown Japan's true self when he at the UN assembly said the time was over for any talks with Pyongyang which implies military option is next.

If Trump and Kim have not even met to talk it over, how can Abe probate on behalf of the US?  He is just egging Trump to annihilate NK in much the same way the US had imposed economic sanctions on J and ended the conflict by nuking it.

The hypocrisy of today's politicians ignoring lessons from their own history exposes their machiavellian manoeuvers to get others to take blows for them.  

Going forward, all of SK must take note of it no less than their NK cousins across the border would have by now.

After all, with allies like J, who needs an enemy like NK?

The immediate concern is what Trump has done. With just one stroke of his total sanctions memorandum, he is inflicting the severest pre-destruction wound on NK and conveniently ignoring the obvious reality that NK citizens are not able to incite internal rebellion which is the US' ultimate objective for the hermit state.  One wonders if MacArthur had left his pipe in the Oval Office and Trump had taken a pew from it.

Come winter, NK will have no fuel and food and millions may die. With such dire prospects, China will bypass the sanctions to save NK in order to prevent a humanitarian disaster propelling mass influx across her own borders.  

Consequently the US and J will egg the UN to sanction China in turn.  This will effectively remove any possibility of the only nation historically and geographically qualified to broker the only item of solution, a notarizable peace treaty to defang the dogs of war and unlock the barn door to survival.

In pre-conceiving that inevitable outcome of removing China from her equation of dialogue first, the US will next initiate its military option after a casual estimation of the likely casualty rate on SK while further encouraged by the full knowledge there will be no NK candidate after the monolithic structure of Kim's regime is dismantled which means a vacuum of administration will arise after the destruction and that will provide a ripe opportunity for the US-J-SK compact to insert and establish a nuclear umbrella on NK soil pointing directly at China and Russia; what by Nato for Europe, so too a nipponized Korea for Asia.

Knowing so, should the US expect China and Russia to stand akimbo only when in the other corralling geostrategic sphere, J is already egging India on behalf of the US and the US is egging the Ukraine in another exercise of balkanizing Russia?

Lastly, Trump waxed at the UN about the US' role with its Marshall Plan to rescue Europe post WW2. He should remember that when China nexts helps SK to save NK pre-WW3.

This post for: abcfirst.













Use magic tools Report

Rank: 4

Post time 2017-9-23 16:34:16 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abcfirst at 2017-9-23 16:40

There are members of the Alliance that want to see NK physically destroyed, totally, in order to secure themselves and at the same time advance their ambitions.  Some, like Japan, are afraid of a direct attack by Pyongyang.  Others are afraid of an indirect attack by North Korea transferring nuclear technology or weapons to their enemies in another corner of the world.  Both are equally adamant that the window for talks is over, and war is the only option, with total surrender and denuclearization acceptable as an alternative, though this is highly improbable.

The only exception to the rule that national interest motivates each state actor is South Korea, because of the way it was born and ruled from the first day of its inception, being made up mostly of holdovers from the Japanese-installed Korean government and military that is totally loyal to Japan, even at the cost of losing millions of lives of its citizens and armed forces.  They used to be in complete control, but now, they are in hidden control with a sitting president that advocates for peace but essentially approves all the steps, not just for a war of aggression and decapitation at that, but also for sustaining enormous civilian casualties in high population density areas like Seoul, in effect setting up a humanitarian trip wire for North Korea to trip over, triggering an incredible, horrible humanitarian catastrophe, that would force America to instantly, reflexively "totally destroy" North Korea. Counting the lives in Seoul of about 12 million as against the total lives in North Korea of about 22 million, such a scenario would still be a "win" for South Korea, even though it would be a pyrrhic victory, which no government that is truly sovereign and nationalist in orientation would ever allow to happen.  For the same reason, if anyone is going to accept the task of lighting the fuse, even at great risk to his own life, it will have to be the loyal South Korean detachment of Imperial Japan still.  The spirit of Kamikaze is alive and well over there, since it has been governed continuously by the same cabal long after the defeat of Japan in WWII.

The sanctioning of China is an objective in and of itself, waiting for a reason, such as the failure of North Korea to succumb to the sanctions imposed on it by China, but was originally better suited to China's supposed practice of currency manipulation (the fact is, China indeed had been manipulating its currency to be overvalued, by selling dollars and buying back yuans, the very opposite of what her accusers mean by currency manipulation - the buying of dollars and selling of yuans), but if neither suffice, just add it its supposed lack of religious freedom, human rights, and so forth.  It was thus irrestible for those wanting a NK-US war to grab onto sanctioning China for "not doing enough" which kills two birds with one stone.  It sets up China for more sanctions and military confrontation, even if North Korea eventually collapsed, so it guarantees continuity of Plan A.  And if China cooperates it becomes a sure loser, because if NK survives the sanctions, it will henceforth regard China as an enemy, and if NK collapses, China's northeast border would be completely naked and vulnerable for years to come.

All of this noose-tightening around the neck of China can occur, only because China has some folks insisting it should not demand as a condition for its applying sanctions on North Korea that the Allies agree to initiate or offer a Peace Proposal of guaranteeing permanent and comprehensive peace for North Korean in return for the permanent and complete denuclearization of North Korea.  Because China has no balls to make even a most sensible and reasonable requirement for its cooperation, it stands to be pushed around and blamed for everything that goes wrong going forward, as it has no reason for its not agreeing to more and more, and even more, sanctions that will of course starve North Korea to death.  But, that is the law of the jungle as applied to international relations, those who have low testosterone become prey, and those who have high testosterone become predators.  And if that is the way China is, then so be it, nature rules.







Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2017-9-23 17:09:24 |Display all floors
This post was edited by markwu at 2017-9-23 17:13

But i assure you China has an abundance of balls.

In the last peninsula war, she had had to sacrifice six hundred thousand of them to save NK, something which Kim's grandfather would have told him and he should remember that on behalf of his people with eternal gratitude, especially when the US is lately trying next to drive a dividing wedge between both nations.

Notwithstanding that, the future of all nations should be denuclearization and the peninsula can be a showcase of how the best of human effort is made to walk away from the madness of nuclear brinkmanship.

But to get to that stage, Trump should shut his trap, fire the warmongering organ grinder monkeys around him and his deceptively soft spoken ally named Ape, and send a message through China to Kim that a quiet meeting in Beijing come November is the only way to avoid the avoidable of the unthinkable.

Because if war breaks out in the region, Trump will be the first potus to give a new meaning to the american dream, death again on the arid fields of a faraway land over a continental ocean.

And more importantly, any strategic reassurance with China for that matter Russia will be a pipe dream because the resulting global narrative for the rest of the century will be one of cagey mistrust and deepened animosity.

K today, other alphabets tomorrow.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 4

Post time 2017-9-24 02:56:23 |Display all floors
All right, HALF A BALL.

Use magic tools Report

You can't reply post until you log in Log in | register

BACK TO THE TOP
Contact us:Tel: (86)010-84883548, Email: blog@chinadaily.com.cn
Blog announcement:| We reserve the right, and you authorize us, to use content, including words, photos and videos, which you provide to our blog
platform, for non-profit purposes on China Daily media, comprising newspaper, website, iPad and other social media accounts.