Author: abcfirst

SOUTH KOREA - AN UNEXPECTED PROBABLE INITIATOR OF THE NEXT KOREAN WAR [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2017-9-11 03:43:56 |Display all floors
Correction:  Not Sept. 21 to 31, but "August 21 to 31".

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Post time 2017-9-11 04:20:26 |Display all floors
IF CHINA DOES NOT HAVE THE GUTS TO INSIST ON BOTH SIDES WORKING IMMEDIATELY ON A DRAFT OF A PEACE TREATY, FORMALLY ISSUED TO THE MAIN PROTAGONISTS, IT WILL BE DRAGGED INTO A MAJOR ECONOMIC WAR . . . AND SOONER OR LATER, INTO A MAJOR IF NOT GLOBAL MILITARY CONFLICT.

Only those who dare take a stand for peace will achieve it.



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Post time 2017-9-12 09:22:03 |Display all floors
It seems to me China is the only one on the roulette table who has risen above the melee to find the only solution to the intractable problem through dialogue for mutual understanding of the real issues with view to progress towards rapprochement and settlement.  The others seem to be displaying tit-for-tat's which will only end in grief if left to their own devices in a multipolar world.

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Post time 2017-9-12 13:44:17 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abcfirst at 2017-9-12 13:47

CHINA'S FEAR OF INSISTING ON BOTH SIDES ACCEPTING ITS PEACE PROPOSAL SIGNALS ITS INABILITY TO GUARANTEE ANY PEACE TREATY THAT THE PARTIES SIGN, DOOMING IT TO DIE BEFORE IT CAN BE BORN.  

The pressure on NK from China is very real, and will force North Korea to choose between capitulation or a final showdown with South Korea in a bid to reunite the country before it collapses.  This, is, of course, the intent of the sanctions, to force NK to make the first move, and thence obliterate it within minutes of its aggression against South Korea.  And South Korea, being the loyal soldier of imperial Japan, is more than willing to be the bait, even at the risk of losing millions of lives, notwithstanding the pretensions of Moon to being a peace activist.  And all of this will end up basically with the Korean nations torn and tattered beyond repair, which will create the greatest political vacuum since the end of WWII.

The real contest between the major powers will begin after NK and SK cease to exist as sovereign states, lacking as both will be of basic law and order, food, shelter, transportation and health care in the aftermath of the to-be-expected Kormageddon.

Once the proxies have been used up completely, the conflict becomes direct and strategic.  This is the next phase of the Korean Crisis, as we can effectively consider the first phase of North vs South to be finished, with a conclusion that is pre-ordained and inevitable.  To egg North Korea to strike first, South Korea will take the lead, accept the risk, as expected, to spare Japan the destruction of being the first in line.  Japan will survive, because South Korea will make sure that will happen, as its ultimate sacrifice for its motherland.

China's fear of war will lead to the war that it fears.  Wars are prevented by strength, by courage, and by conviction.  All these are lacking in the hand that China holds in regard to the Korean Crisis, now hurtling towards a final confrontation.  No courage to insist on a Pax Sinica today, on its terms, exercised on all parties, ensures a meltdown of the Korean peninsula tomorrow.

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Post time 2017-9-13 11:19:49 |Display all floors
This post was edited by markwu at 2017-9-13 11:25

Trump is now saying he is contemplating more severe punitive measures after sanctions on NK and blacklisting of its trading institutions, thereby shifting US pressure from NK to China and Russia and thus into the UN Security Council.

The old idiom of duck taking to water has just taken a new meaning; he is flailing like one in the shallow waters of US foreign policy since his rhetoric only lends more weight to a mentality of me-versus and over-you that is unhelpful towards securing peace despite conflict. People are not going to forget his destabilizing and proxy definition of sovereignty so revealed.

If tightening sanctions create a humanitarian crisis in NK, how will the US face the world next on the matter of human rights that translates to the right to live in the case of NKoreans, and next the right to defense by nuclear deterrence in the case of their country?

And if he next prosecutes trade and economic sanctions on China and Russia using NK as an excuse, will J and SK not suffer as well when they respond?  

His game-play by shifting from geopolitics to economics will only turn back to bite him and the US in the eagle's tail.

This is one reality-show in which he has no say on its script before airing to billions around the world.  He should take a quick step back, shut his trap and work towards China-Russia's compact for next progressive steps towards real peace.  Forget about face.  By what the US has shown in the last six months, it should borrow a burqa instead.

Because there has been absolutely no consideration for human and sovereign lives over and above geopolitic-economic targets.  And they want to define international rules of law next.  

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Post time 2017-9-13 14:00:25 |Display all floors
abcfirst Post time: 2017-9-12 13:44
CHINA'S FEAR OF INSISTING ON BOTH SIDES ACCEPTING ITS PEACE PROPOSAL SIGNALS ITS INABILITY TO GUARAN ...

re:   the first phase of North vs South to be finished, with a conclusion that is pre-ordained and inevitable.  To egg North Korea to strike first, South Korea will take the lead, accept the risk, as expected, to spare Japan the destruction of being the first in line.  Japan will survive, because South Korea will make sure that will happen, as its ultimate sacrifice for its motherland.


Above saying is dead on,
     however; not S/K-but Formosa is giving its ultimate sacrifice for its motherland...
The N/ and S/ game is nothing but a smart chess move ORCHESTRATED by J. and American folks falling for it.
Locally, the game is read like Sunday's readings from the Jerusalem Bible, which is used at Mass in most of the English-speaking world.
No one need to worry about the meltdown of the Korean peninsula tomorrow.

As Markwu in post 19 stated:   there has been absolutely no consideration for human and sovereign lives over and above geopolitic-economic targets.

And I say, there never will be dealing with the West and Willing...


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Post time 2017-9-13 14:00:51 |Display all floors
Matthis and Tillerson were correct in saying America is not seeking regime change or the obliteration of North Korea.  But M&T are not in charge of America, just as Trump is not, because US foreign policy is currently set de facto by the Congress and Senate, the US constitution notwithstanding.  This is the reality on the ground.  If Trump cannot get any Peace Treaty done without achieving regime change or capitulation by North Korea, he will be branded an "appeaser", as he has recently branded Moon as.  With this logic, Peace is appeasement without prior regime change, and therefore, not permissible by Congress.  In order to strike a deal, and to negotiate on behalf of the country, Trump must be able to give and to take, or to pull and to push.  As it is, he cannot give without being called a traitor or coward, and he loves this handicap because it forces Kim to give, which is probably true to some extent, and for some limited time, but Kim has his own constraints, because he has built up the highest expectations of the public, his military and his government, that he will achieve nuclear power status regardless of the odds, and therefore, obviously, everyone knows, the mutually nerve-wracking game of Chicken is going to transform into a certainty (not a game anymore) of two turkeys driving their trains toward each other, on one single pair of rails, with their brakes disabled.

This situation is no longer a game, where there is some uncertainty about the outcome, nor is it a joke, where the outcome is trivial or symbolic, but simply, a disaster in motion.

Here, the engine of the trains are at the back, while the passengers and crews are in the boxes at the front.  On one side, you have South Korea, then Japan, then America moving towards the other train, headed by North Korea, then China, then Russia.  Nobody, but nobody, can really say how the disaster will end, except, it will end like a disaster ought to end.

At this point, you hear all the cajoling, hooting, shouting at each other, in the vain hope that such bluster will stop the other train from crashing into one's own train.  There is now an increasing chorus whistling, shouting, and screaming at China for allowing North Korea to keep coming onward like there is no tomorrow.  On the other side, there is a lot of whispering, silent signaling, and throat clearing, to let Trump know, this won't work, and the result will not be pretty.  But the logic of their irrationality, expecting the other side to be rational without being rational oneself, cannot be aborted by appeals to logic, because the logic itself is based on the premise that one is always right.

China has the chance to stand up to the plate and acting like a true referee, DEMAND rational rule-based behavior from both sides, but this is a role China does not feel it has the ability to do.  It feels too weak, and too vulnerable, and possibly too careless about its own self-interest, to try to mediate a crisis by putting its own security and economic prosperity at stake.  Yet, it is the only rational way to end this dual train of disasters in motion, which is the equivalent of setting up a traffic signal or signals somewhere in the middle section of this railroad track, set up immovable barricades to force the trains to slow down and stop at the China station, and have everyone disembark, come to its dinner table, sit down, and talk about how to manage their differences.  

By avoiding the role of the referee, China is setting itself up to be regarded as a part of the Korean train, to be coerced economically, and eventually, to be opposed militarily.

China can choose to jump off the Pyongyang Express, and end up eventually having to fight to retain its buffer zone in the Korean peninsula after NK is destroyed, or it can get on the front of the Pyongyang Express, separate from it and run ahead of it, in order to set up the way station somewhere down the rail route, and force both trains to stop at the place of its choice, and resolve their differences under the conditions that it imposes.  It is better to use power to establish peace with a certain end, than to use thrice that power to fight a war with an uncertain conclusion.

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