Author: abcfirst

SOUTH KOREA - AN UNEXPECTED PROBABLE INITIATOR OF THE NEXT KOREAN WAR [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2017-9-2 15:57:16 |Display all floors
By the same token that if Japan retains its stranglehold on the leadership of South Korea, South Korea will be forced to serve as the bait for and buffer against North Korean reaction to South Korean provocation, if the South Korean people who put their own survival above the survival of Japan, can make their government seek peace with denuclearization of NK, then WW3 will be impossible to start over there, as neither North Korea nor America would want to engage each other in a nuclear exchange.  The crux of enabling Peace with Denuclearization in the Korean Peninsula thus resides in breaking the bondage and absolute servitude of South Korea to Japan's national interest.  Without the Japanese puppet master and the South Korean puppet deceiving them, North Korea and America will be able to find a common ground and achieve peace with denuclearization quite easily.


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Post time 2017-9-2 18:06:24 |Display all floors
6.50 am  NK launched missile over J

7.30 am  SK dropped bombs near DMZ

A difference of just 40 minutes.  Only 40 minutes to decide to fly four F15K to drop 8 MK84 bombs in live-simulation of executing NK's Kim. The decision must already have been worked out earlier in a simulation. Which means the policy was already decided long before that. Which implies there is a SK-J hot link, based on the speed of response.  Why else would SK send such a message to NK if SK was not in prior agreement with J to assert to NK that J is not to be threatened even at risk to SK's own peoples if NK had responded to the bombing?

SK MK84 x 8 Bombs.jpg

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Post time 2017-9-5 12:13:57 |Display all floors
Excellent observation.

Confirms the role of SK as the decoy and shock absorber for Japan, first by use of sharp words and stunning actions, to lure NK to attack SK.

That failing, two other scenarios may ensue:
1.  SK may directly attack a part of or the whole of NK.
2.  Japan will push hard to persuade US to do, either:
     a.  Pre-emptive massive strike on NK on the earliest information of NK's next provocation.
     b.  A massive first strike based on the UN acknowledging that NK is in the wrong, and the argument of self-defense.
3.  If rule#2 does not occur, see rule#1.

This logic has an inherent time cycle.  #1 has been tested, and failed.  #2 is being tested, and may also fail.  Therefore, the next move if #2 fails is that rule #1 must be enforced.  Only by rules #1 and #2 can Japan be assured of the least amount of harm - logical for Japan to insist on vis-a-vis its ex-colonial officers in charge of SK's military, which in turn is in charge of Moon.

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Post time 2017-9-5 12:30:18 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abcfirst at 2017-9-5 12:34

This is indeed a game of chicken, which we have re-analyzed as a game of Turkey.

Turkey, because while Trump does not really want war, he has been crippled in his ability to conclude any peace treaty with NK, under any terms.  Trump is handicapped by the fact that Congress will never ratify any peace treaty with NK unless NK has had a regime change, regardless of what Trump, Tillerson or Mattis says.  Trump may be driving an 18-wheeler as against Kim's minivan, but Trump's 18-wheeler has a non-functioning brake.  He may only threaten, swallow his pride when his threats are ignored, or act on his threats.  Any attempt by him or Tillerson to talk peace before regime change will be termed "appeasement".

Kim, on the other hand, welcomes escalation of threats, because he can couch his next advance in testing his weapons as a rhetorical counter-threat, when in fact, it is not just rhetorical, but all too real.  Two birds with one stone.  While Kim is getting nowhere with his rhetorical threats and counter-threats with Trump, he is moving rapidly in increasing his real capabilities.

The only way to stop Kim is to offer him a real peace treaty, so he has no excuse to say he needs his nuclear weapons as deterrence in self-defense.  But Trump is not allowed to offer it.  The failure is in the so-called balance of powers, in that in the present configuration, POTUS is no longer empowered to offer peace, and can only threaten or execute war.  This might not be a bad negotiating tactic, much like Kim postures himself as a madman incapable of rational compromise.  Unfortunately, the former is real, and the latter is a mere pretense.  Is it possible for Trump to force Kim to fold just by doubling down?  Not really, because Kim has a long, long way to go before he can achieve full nuclear capability, and thus when offering Peace is not appeasement but effective diplomacy in stopping NK nuclear development, it is termed "appeasement" rendering Trump incapable of stopping NK by diplomacy.  Trump may say talking does not work, and it would be true, because nobody has really talked about a final Peace Treaty for all the talk they made.

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Post time 2017-9-5 21:50:05 |Display all floors
The crux question thus seems to boil down to whether Kim has enough time to survive the cordon sanitaire of economic sanctions in order to achieve full nuclear capability for his missiles. If he does, then the US congress in bridling about non-appeasement now will only be shaping the very nightmare it wants to avoid later - asymmetric response by NK sharing its expertise with others who may also have their own axes to grind with the US and/or its putative allies. And in these days, what can be mounted onto the nose of a missile can also be backpacked, don't you think too?

In summary, owing to the zugzwang situation abcfirst has teased out, Kim has the time; Trump and his congress don't.

Meanwhile:

http://tinyurl.com/y7s8jp7h

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Post time 2017-9-9 15:31:46 |Display all floors
The problem with this conflict, as with others as well, is that it is too much facts and opinions to be grasped by a simple human.
As it is free to have once own interpretation of this I have one of my own:
Looking at the fact, I know about, the US is the sole winner of this spectacle. The main purpose of all this is to maintain the US presence and to sell weapons. Look around in the world and see how the US use their so called allied to make all the dirty work for the US. Silently the accept the US sanctions that all are double edged as they also target and weakened their allied. Everything to make the US the WORLD LEADER.

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Post time 2017-9-9 17:19:19 |Display all floors
"IT'S ALL ABOUT CHINA" summarizes what is really at stake in the Korean Crisis.  Korea, its land and its nukes are not the real prize.  The real prize is CHINA, no less.

For example, the Ulchi Freedom Guardian war games from Sept. 21 to 31, 2017, uses the name of the most famous general of Korea in all history, Eulji Mundeok (을지문덕 or 乙支文德), who defeated the million-man-army of the Sui emperor Yang Ti of China at the Battle of Salsu River (also known as the Ch'ongch'on River or the Yalu River) when Sui sent 300,000 of his soldiers to attack the capital of Goguryeo P'yongyang.  Eulji Mundeok (aka Ulchi Mundok) was lionized by the Japanese during their period of rule over Korea (1895-1945) as a symbol of Korean nationalism, to direct Korean nationalism against China, rather than the real invader and annexer of Korea, the empire of Japan.  The Ulchi-Freedom Guardian military exercises were therefore aimed at perpetuating the notion that Japan is the friend of Korea, and China is their common enemy, which is exactly what South Korea has been indoctrinating its youth all along.  It is also aimed at inciting "nationalist" elements in North Korea to oppose the Kim regime which owed its survival to China's intervention in the Korean War, painting the Kim's as traitors in the eyes of Ulchi Mondock, and therefore unworthy to rule over the Korean people, even though it was at the Battle of the Ch'ongch'on River (or Battle of Yalu River) from November 25 to December 2, 1950 that China erased its debt to the Goguryeo kingdom by saving its capital, P'yongyang, with an equally large force of 300,000 men, as Sui had sent to attack it.

While Kim may have many reasons to think that the Ulchi-Freedom Guardian war games were designed to overthrow him, nobody who knows the history of Goguryeo can miss the deeper intention of defeating China, beyond the mere recovery of P'yongyang.  

It is ironic that while Kim felt threatened by the Ulchi war games, China is indifferent to them.  Perhaps, it is just as well.  Eulji Mundeok may not care how his name is being used in the 21st century, as long as the peace and prosperity for which he spent his military genius protecting, is now present in his beloved country.  And China is no sentimentalist about the defeat of its past emperors on the banks of the Yalu River, as long as it serves today as the guardian of its resplendent tomorrow.

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