Author: abcfirst

SOUTH KOREA - AN UNEXPECTED PROBABLE INITIATOR OF THE NEXT KOREAN WAR [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2017-10-7 21:29:24 |Display all floors
What you think can never represent how Trump administration respondes to the crisis UNLESS YOU CAN ARRANGE SOME NEGOTIATIONS WITH TRUMP OR KIM, or fancy you enjoy talking about tricky issues like that as entertainment.

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Post time 2017-10-7 21:35:59 |Display all floors
This post was edited by Yin_99 at 2017-10-7 21:36

How could you make a conclusion on Trump's real intention I wonder?  Is there any psychological/medical proof to support your inferrals or you just enjoy talking that way about complicated issues?

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Post time 2017-10-8 03:45:55 |Display all floors
PATIENCE IS KEY TO UNDERSTANDING URGENT COMPLEX PROBLEMS

Precisely because the problems are complex, it takes patience to peel off the individual layers of complexity.  One has to paraphrase Soros' principle of "reflexivity" in saying that the expectations of the players about the expectations of each other, and their expectations of the expectations of these fundamental expectations, create situations where what one may expect at a certain level of complexity something that is diametrically opposed to the one's first cut expectations.

For example, on first cut, one would expect rational players to seek to avoid mutual destruction by agreeing to a peace treaty that satisfies their mutual expectations, i.e., the permanent and complete denuclearization by NK in exchange for a permanent and comprehensive peace guaranteed by the Allies.

However, this is easier said than done on two levels.  The first is the difficulty of getting both sides to agree on what is meant by "permanent", "comprehensive", "denuclearization" and "peace" as pertains to both sides.  The second is how to "guarantee" compliance, and who can force compliance by both sides to what they have agreed.  

In fact, one might conclude that because of these "technical details", such a peace treaty does not have the chance of a Chinaman, especially if North Korea is to rely on China to enforce the treaty on its behalf, given China's inability to guarantee even her own territorial sovereignty against the same players that North Korea is dealing with.

As a result, either Kim or Trump, or both, may conclude that if the "logical" solution of a peace treaty is not doable, that they should pursue their diametrically opposite and mutually exclusive goals to the very end, at all cost.  

And thus, an "illogical solution" may become the ONLY solution, when the "logical solution" is further analysed and found to be impractical and undoable.

This brings us to the current situation where Kim refuses to talk, and Trump says talks are a waste of time.  You know what, we have to give them credit for their smarts.  They may be right, and war may be inevitable, even though it is undesirable, and would be mutually destructive in major ways.  There are times when what is wrong is the only option left even to those who want very much to do what is right.  If you cannot accept this, because of the anxiety and fear it generates, then treat your anxiety constructively, by designing shelters and depots of food, medicines, water, and other resources.  In this case, the only mistake you could make is to spend the next three years eating the canned goods you have put away.


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Post time 2017-10-9 03:36:17 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abcfirst at 2017-10-9 09:50

ABE TURNED FIESTY AS HIS PREVIOUS DEFENSE MINISTER KOIKE CHALLENGES HIM FOR LEADERSHIP POST

If Plan A, to let South Korea provoke and absorb the first blows from North Korea, does not work, because SK's moves are just too timid to make NK feel it is about to be attacked, then Plan B may be to let Japan provoke North Korea into attacking, and abosrb some of the blows from North Korea, at which time, North Korea could be justifiably taken out.  But if Abe is too sly to play the role of South Korea, his challenger and previous defense minister, Koike, might be willing and able.  No sooner than the NK official mouthpiece had spared Japan from being listed among its latest threats, refocusing on South Korea, than Abe spoke up, saying he is 100% behind Trump in forgoing any attempt at negotiation, which merely allowed NK to buy time to complete its nuclear program, with some truth in it.  Somehow, Abe has succeeded where Trump has failed.  He had convinced North Korea to direct its wrath away from Japan, in which case, Japan might emerge not just as a survivor, but as the dominant power of the Korean Peninsula.  The four northern islands is a matter for another day, which is Koike's future task.  Her present duty is to make sure Abe does his, regardless of the risks involved.

There are now only two parties vying for power in Japan, the nationalist party of Abe, and the ultra-nationalist party of Koike, who once served as his defense minister, to force Japan to rush in where angels fear to tread, or rather, where Moon refused to tread.

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Post time 2017-10-9 17:58:58 |Display all floors
This post was edited by Yin_99 at 2017-10-9 20:13

Trump & Kim could hardly form good allies, deal with it.

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Post time 2017-10-10 12:26:35 |Display all floors
Non sequitur to divert the thread of discussion, to deal with Trump and Kim as good allies, Y99 says, or whatever.

Japan will always remain in the crosshairs of North Korea because its cruelty to the Korean people can never be erased from their memories, not with the drumbeats of South Korea, or with the Tweets of Trump.

Japan, as NK demands, has yet to atone for its crimes against humanity in Korea.  Abe is using SK as his willing shield (as the SK army was originally trained by the Imperial Japanese Army, and was loyal to the Japanese emperor to a tee).  And he is using America as his willing spear to destroy the last survivors of the Japanese invasion of Korea hiding in the northern part of the Korean peninsula.  With a shield and a spear, Abe has mastered and overcome the contradiction of Japan's position.  But to his dismay, Kim is not concerned by his shield or his spear, but rather with him.  That is something that Abe cannot comprehend or defend against.




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Post time 2017-10-10 13:23:54 |Display all floors
Trump to Abe, "Nasty, nasty Kim. Talking is useless. Abe, you go first."
Abe to Moon, "Bad, bad Kim.  Time to act, do something."
Moon to Kim, "Yo Bro, let us settle our differences peacefully, okay?"
Kim to Moon, "I am busy doing my homework.  Talk to you after I have passed all the tests."
Trump to Kim, "Talking is useless, you hear me?  I ain't gonna talk to you at all!!!"
Kim to Moon, "I don't understand his Korean, do you?"

This is how the world ends, not with a whimper, nor with a bang, but with WTF???

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