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UN Resolution to Add More Sanctions on NK May Be the Last Straw [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2017-8-6 09:11:43 |Display all floors
Although it is clearly necessary for China and Russia to join South Korea, Japan and America in pressuring NK to stop its nuclear program, its chance of success is not high, if these same parties cannot set out a draft of a Peace Treaty between NK and Allies, as the only way out of the present quandary.  Failure to put on the table a draft of a Peace Treaty to begin talks on is just another way to make sure that the sanctions will fail, and that war will prevail.  Of course, it is in nobody's interest to propose a Peace Treaty, really.  Which is why the problem posed by NK nuclearization would become even more acute in short order, as the regime will be forced to act before it is starved to death.  In short, the fuse to WW3 has just gotten shorter, unless it is replaced quickly with a draft of a Peace Treaty even as we speak.


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Post time 2017-8-7 01:35:46 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abcfirst at 2017-8-7 01:59

China will be forced to take sides in a matter of a few months, if not weeks, if there is no Peace Treaty on the table to extend the lull in the stand-off.  Since the prospect of a Peace Treaty draft is zero, China will become the focus of the next wave of sanctions, when the Kim regime resumes its dash toward the finish line.  And since China stands to lose the most with a collapse of the Kim regime, it is likely at that point to side with it.  And therefore, all hell will break loose in a matter of a few months, if not weeks, as the Kim regime has shown no regard for all sanctions to date.
China's failure to secure an agreement to work on even just a draft of a Peace Treaty puts it in the position of the ultimate loser.  If Kim succeeds, in spite of the sanctions, he would view China as an enemy.  If Kim falls, China would lose its defensive buffer in the northeast, which is a mere hours from its capital, Beijing, that might be forced to relocate inland, i.e., an admission of defeat.  Thus, in either case, China would be the loser vis-a-vis the status quo.

The failure of the diplomatic corps in this regard is historic.  Ming's failure at Shanhaiguan spelled its demise.  Manchu's failure in Korea likewise.  Failure to secure peace in this region has historically been the cause of collapse.  Only a Peace Treaty while China has the clout to demand it could avert this fate.  There is no excuse, because there is no alternative.




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Post time 2017-8-7 01:40:39 |Display all floors
All the Internet rumors about the end of the world based on prophecies have immunized the herd against the final warning of a true global catastrophe, based on human decisions and desires, but this time, there is basis, not just in the stars, in the scriptures, but also in the developing and accelerating follies of men.  Is it time to cry "Wolf"?  Not really, because nobody will hear it, when the Wolf has the microphone.

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Post time 2017-8-7 12:47:17 |Display all floors
MATRIX OF MEDIATION - ALLIES VS NK Allies Freeze War Games Allies Agree to Letter of Intent Allies Ratify Peace Treaty China's Response to non-fulfillment
NK freezes tests Preserve status quo - to last 4 weeks or until LOI is signed, whichever is sooner. Agree to more sanctions.
NK Agrees to Letter of Intent Negotiations begin for "Peace without Sanctions" in exchange for "Complete and Permanent Denuclearization" - to last 6 months. Agree to more sanctions.
NK Ratifies Peace Treaty Guarantees signed by principals and guarantors to include all 6 parties. Agree to more sanctions
China's response to non-fulfillment Relax sanctionsRelax sanctions. Relax sanctions.


The above is just one possible framework for achieving both peace and denuclearization.  These are two end points, and neither can be the precondition for another, or they are not bona fide end points.  China's option in the event of an impasse by time of deadline is to withdraw involvement except when her security is affected.

Under this framework, permanent peace and denuclearization should be achievable in 7 months, but only if China has the guts to stand by her position of fairness and obtain the recognition all the parties to lead them out of a dilemma of their own making.


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