Views: 529|Replies: 6

A Simple Solution to an Insoluble Problem [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 4

Post time 2017-4-15 02:17:54 |Display all floors
Actually, there is no simple solution to the Korean Crisis.  The choice between war and peace requires a means for both to be both credible and actionable.  The means to war is for the generals.  The means to peace is for the diplomats.  But the final common pathway of all diplomatic peace efforts is the signing of a peace treaty guaranteed by credible powers.  To reject the very notion of a treaty or negotiations at present to lead to a treaty is the same as to accept war as the only choice, regardless.  Nobody wants to sign a peace treaty with North Korea, unless it surrenders first, that is.  And no Kim official wants to sign a peace treaty with America, unless it becomes a nuclear power first.  Therefore, left to themselves, there is no chance of ever achieving peace, as the means of a treaty toward it, is impossible to achieve.
Question.

What if an affected party wants them to be at peace for the simple reason that its own security and prosperity is threatened by their war?

Suppose two fellows want to have a showdown on Main Street, and the sheriff does not want others to be hurt by them, physically or financially?  Ask them to do it elsewere?  But they insist on Main Street, both.   Do it some other time?  But to both, it is now or never. Solve their dispute by some other means?  They refuse any other means.

This is a classic Chicken game.

China has enough clout to broker a peace neither wants, but cannot refuse.

China sends each country an offer between each of them and China.  In each such contract, China will spell out the terms of what that country gets from the other country, and also what it gets from China.  Included, are items of what China gets from it, in return.  Naturally, the two contracts will be different, but they will be complementary.  As the peace broker, China will provide some benefits to each, and reap benefits from both.  This is the way banks issue letters of credit to importers that satisfy the demands of the exporters.  And it will be a two-way trade, so two different letters of credit, by one bank, China, who can make whole what each side loses, if their counterparty defaults.

It is simple.  But it is hard.  Yet, it is the only possible way to achieve peace.  The reward is that the ensuing peace will be on the terms that China can accept and will benefit from, in security, in trade, and in reputation.  A soft power in effect that governs raw power.








Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

2016 Most Valuable Member 2015 Most Valuable Member 2014 Most Valuable Member

Post time 2017-4-16 03:10:48 |Display all floors
Oh god no

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

2016 Most Valuable Member Medal Gold Medal

Post time 2017-4-16 10:06:03 |Display all floors
So it is back to China-as-a-tribute-collector state. I see. Nothing new in the Far East.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 4

Post time 2017-4-18 13:21:14 |Display all floors
The Korean Crisis is snowballing faster than expected, because China and Russia are feeling threatened, and are reacting not so much with North Korea in mind, but with their own interests at heart.  It won't be long before everyone is feeling threatened by someone.  When the arbiter becomes a protagonist, peace becomes impossible to broker.  And the opposite becomes impossible to avert.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 4

Post time 2017-4-20 12:57:21 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abcfirst at 2017-4-20 12:58

The denuclearization of North Korea, if combined with a peace treaty with the USA, guaranteed by China, would be the best outcome for all.  The post-War Japanese lackeys posturing as patriots in South Korea are already baring their teeth at China, disputing the historical fact that Korea was once a colony of China, despite that modern China is not disputing its present status as an independent country.  They probably won't dispute the fact that Korea was annexed by Japan officially on August 22, 1910 and became a part of Japan, aiding Japan in its aggression against China even as early as 1895, up to the end of WWII in 1945, after the surrender of Japan.  Why should they be so angry at China for mentioning a historical fact without any present aggressive intentions on Korea, and be so friendly and cozy with a Japan that actually annexed their country, prostituted their women, and sent their men to die in the mines or battlefields in the service of their de facto and de jure leader, Emperor Hirohito?  Such obsequiousness defies all rationality.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2017-4-20 23:03:22 |Display all floors
When you cannot find solution, it means that there are no problem.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 4

Post time 2017-4-21 13:11:59 |Display all floors
South Korean "backlash" against Trump-Xi conversation on the history of the Korean peninsula is a sign of its slavish subservience to Japanese imperial mentality, and its undependability as a friend or partner.  The Anti-China angst is so palpably racist as to reject all historical facts, even if they were mentioned in passing, to understand their irrationality, at root, at heart and at bottom.  This movement by South Korea against China is sheer Japanophilia in its heart and soul, just like the elder Park was a Japanese military officer turned ruler of their people.  If this is the way South Korea wants China to treat it, as a remnant of the Japanese Empire in the Korean Peninsula, it is losing its best ally at the moment it needs it most.  This will change the history of their country in ways that China never wanted, as they serve again as the foot soldiers of China's most implacable enemy.

Use magic tools Report

You can't reply post until you log in Log in | register

BACK TO THE TOP
Contact us:Tel: (86)010-84883548, Email: blog@chinadaily.com.cn
Blog announcement:| We reserve the right, and you authorize us, to use content, including words, photos and videos, which you provide to our blog
platform, for non-profit purposes on China Daily media, comprising newspaper, website, iPad and other social media accounts.