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CHINA'S DILEMMA - SOLVED BY MAKING IT A TRILEMMA. [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2017-3-17 11:24:30 |Display all floors
China proposed a face-saving peace-preserving solution to the Korean crisis - one side stops its nuclear and missile development while the other side stops its war games and preparations for war - and was met with silence on one side and outright open rejection on the other side.  In this situation, China's position has dwindled into that of a helpless spectator and would-be victim of collateral damage should the conflict escalate further.  Its leadership had spoken loudly that China would "not allow" war to engulf the Korean peninsula.  Now, it can only watch war engulf it, and suffer the fallouts on every front.

And the reason is obvious.

China never had any signficant clout with either the Kim regime or the Western powers lined up against it.  It tried to play referee for too long, and now believes in its role as such.  The truth is, China's real role is that of a potential protagonist, antagonist or would-be victim to the two camps.  As it is forced to assume contradictory roles to both parties, this situation is simply unsustainable.  China has to take sides.  But what side?  How about turning this 2-player game into a 3 player or more game?  How about China making its demands on both parties, based on its own interests, and defending its demands as rational, practical and moral?  This is not the role of a referree, but rather that of a vested interest in the status quo.  In this role, China might be able to achieve things it could never aspire to achieve as a mere referee.


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Post time 2017-3-17 13:19:18 |Display all floors


It is a tad pathetic to say the Chinese are "victims" that have no clout at all; the Chinese are part of the problem as they have sponsored the terrorist N Korean regime.

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Post time 2017-3-17 16:47:02 |Display all floors
seneca Post time: 2017-3-17 13:19
It is a tad pathetic to say the Chinese are "victims" that have no clout at all; the Chinese are p ...

A nice, convenient view to make it a dilemma for China, so that China would lose "something" under any scenario.  Any party may designate China as its enemy of its own free will.  In a trilemmal situation, such party would have to weigh its own costs of such a diplomatic, economic and military posture, against its gains.

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Post time 2017-3-18 09:33:19 |Display all floors
abcfirst Post time: 2017-3-17 16:47
A nice, convenient view to make it a dilemma for China, so that China would lose "something" under ...

What next? China will elevate it to a quatrilemma?

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Post time 2017-3-19 05:36:40 |Display all floors
seneca Post time: 2017-3-18 09:33
What next? China will elevate it to a quatrilemma?

You cannot threaten or attack China under the pretext of defending against or attacking North Korea.  China is not obligated to defend or to suffer aggression from any of the two parties.  China is China, not North Korea, not America.  It has no obligation to accept any threat or loss on behalf of any party.  And, it will fully defend itself when it is threatened or attacked.

North Korea might be rogue, but China will not allow any party to go rogue over it in response.



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Post time 2017-3-19 05:42:52 |Display all floors
At any rate, this thing will have to end.  But war may not be avoidable.  And may be the only solution.  So be ready.  If there is anything predictable about war, it is that it is unpredictable.  The consequences are unforeseeable, and may be more wide-ranging than fully anticipated.  This is why China's call for both sides to move one step back makes total sense, even if it is not totally convincing, and certainly, not enforceable by, least of all, China, which has self-restricted its nuclear arsenal to a token force that can be either taken out or completely blocked, as to have no deterrent value in the modern age.

Think!  If China fails, will Russia stand idly by?  Haven't thought far enough, or is that really the objective?

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Post time 2017-3-19 09:42:16 |Display all floors
abcfirst Post time: 2017-3-19 05:36
You cannot threaten or attack China under the pretext of defending against or attacking North Kore ...

So, if we follow your "logic" China is entitled to threaten to attack S Korea just because Chinese fishermen want to trawl within S Korean maritime waters, and China also is entitled to protect a rebellious and dangerous dictatorship such as N Korea even if this puts S Korea at risk? Who the heck do you think the Chinese ruling clique are? They are not deities or angels. They need to be civilised like the rulers of any other country.

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