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China Is Starting to Look Like the 19th Century US ? [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2016-4-12 14:11:51 |Display all floors
China’s shift from super-charged economic growth to a more moderate pace has drawn plenty of comparisons, most often with Japan, which lost its economic dynamism as its population aged, asset bubbles burst and export prowess faded. Some China perma-bears even predict a Soviet Union-style unraveling.

But there’s another, less obvious historical model: late-19th century America. That’s right, the U.S. of the post Civil War-era, a period of rapid economic transformation fueled by massive investment, technological change and population migration to the cities. There were ups and downs, but over the sweep of history the U.S. grew to become the world’s biggest economy, a mantle China wants to capture in coming years.

"The rise of the U.S. in the 19th century is comparable, in its dominance and speed, relative to the rest of the world," said Stephen Jen, co-founder of SLJ Macro Partners LLP in London and a former International Monetary Fund economist. "Judging how the rise of China has thus far affected the rest of the world, the closest comparison could be the U.S. a century ago."

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Post time 7 DayEarlier |Display all floors
Oh Lord, a century ago was the 20th century.

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