Aug 08, 2020, 09:14
People often ask me, if a military clash breaks out between China and the US, which side will be the winner?
In terms of overall military strength, who is more powerful, China or the US? It must be the US. However, when it comes to China's coastal waters, China's maritime strength plus onshore combat power vs the maritime strength of the US, it is difficult to say which side is more powerful. If you haven't tried it, there will be uncertainty.
If it comes to China's core interests, Taiwan, for example, crosses the line under the US encouragement and leads to a military showdown, then at that time there will be a contest of wills as well as a contest of strength. Who's at the upper hand in that situation? It's a combination of military strength plus morality plus the will to fight. Who do you think would be stronger in a war off China's coast?
So the US should be reminded to distance itself from China's core interests. Don't play with fire off China's coast, don't really stir up conflict over Taiwan question, and don't overdo it in the South China Sea. If the Trump administration just wants to create China-US tensions to help his re-election campaign, and is not really ready for a military showdown, then be careful for the next few months, and don't go too far.
China certainly doesn't want a war. My suggestion is that under no circumstances should the Chinese military fire the first shot. But I am confident that China will be well prepared to fire a second shot as a response to the first shot. On core interests, China will not back off. China's stance is clear to all. The best way is for China and relevant parties to respect each other's core interests. If the core interests of both sides overlap, the dispute should be carefully managed, not allowed to ferment and get out of control.
Having experienced several wars and upheavals, I know that peace is really the most precious thing and defending peace is not easy. At a time when relations between China and the US are deteriorating rapidly and some forces are poised to take advantage of changes in the big picture, China's will, wisdom, and ability to master the situation will be tested over time.
The author is editor-in-chief of the Global Times. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
In my humble opinion, war mongering USA can not afford another war, since Uncle Sam is living out waning days in twilight zone with -
- ever growing mountain of debt ($27 Trillions),
- mighty deficit,
- costly wars in Iraq/Afghanistan ($10 Trillions),
- ever widening gap between the richest One Percent and the rest,
- disharmony between the Rich and the Poor, etc.
Web site with over 3 million views says it all at, http://blog.chinadaily.com.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1795128
Extremely cautious notes here are:
In any shooting war against China by any other nation in this world or the loudly called “Indo-Pacific Alliance”echoed strongly by Aussie politicians, the end results will be very dreadfully painful and disastrous for all parties involved. That is, the more nations are involved the worst effects will be felt because all participants will receive the same devastating end effects of wars ( alias, new coronavirus death tolls in effect x 1000 times at least ).
All nations ( especially those in ASEAN, East Asia & South Asia groups ) ought to be well aware of the lasting consequences should a shooting war breaks out from such Indo-Pacific Alliance. This a hypersonic age of technologies and nuke wars are just at a finger-tip out of any uncontrollable heart pulse.
Believing in it that any shooting war against China will never ever going to benefit any party or nation ( globally too ). It is thus assumed that national heads of each ASEAN, East Asia and South Asia groups have implanted or implanting these very gloomy and doomy scenarios in their heads and chests clearly, deeply and solemnly.
Never be a fool or tool of the USA or major power advocating and provoking wars and conflicts. There is no more those notorious "Eight Nations Alliance" to invade and plunder China again ever; hence meaning the USA and allies will never win in their shooting expeditions against China in this era !
If US goes to war with China, it will be a war that all human beings on Earth will be wiped out completely!
Reason is there is sufficient destructive forces on both sides to clean the Earth many folds over leaving nothing to survival by chance!
So, if US thinks it could win, then it is being just stupid!
If the war is fought in the West Pacific, South China Sea and around China, including the India-China border, China has a slight marginal upper hand. Any where else US is the outright winner.
However even with the upper hand China should refrain from going to war except for the recovery of Taiwan and China needs to uphold its pledge not to fire the first bullet. This does not mean China need not have a powerful military, on the contrary, China needs to have a military that is sufficiently powerful when bechmarked to those of US and Russia.
At the same time China should rely on friendly states' military. Not that China is not strong enough to stretch its military but to forge trust and long term work relationship. As China's objective is not military occupation or conquest of another nation therefore relying and working with another country's military will not compromise either one's security nor jeopardise China's and that country's own trade.
For example in Indian Ocean, China's trade route can secure the military support of Indonesia, Philippines, Sri Lanka or Thailand. These countries can join Chinese military. Then along the China-Central-Asia-West Asia-Europe trade routes, secure some military support from Iran, Saudi, Turkey and some East European militaries. For the Pacific trade route work with Russian military. As to the cost, Chinese are global entrepreneurs, so work out some formula.
Most important, don't open the barrel to fire a bullet. Keep the revolver in the gun holsters.
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