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China post 2012, inland province logistic boom! [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2010-11-29 11:26:04 |Display all floors
Well, the year is almost to an end.
The New Year 2011 is just around the corner!
Let's talk about the post 2012 inland province logisitic boom that will coincide with China per capita exceeding US$5,000 - or the supposedly Empire wide consumption boom!

To undertake efficiently this traditionally observed Economic Phenomenon!
China has done very well, in my observations!

(1) It has implemented a empire wide, Fast Rail Passenger System.
(2) It is electrifying, double tracking, and making a a independent Freight Rail System!

What we expect further would be
(a) Containerization of the freight rail system.
(b) Creation of a hub, spoke rail-trucking system
(c) Reducing the freight rail cost km/t rate!

To undertake this, i have this ideas for further cost down, capacity increase system!
(I) Use the development of the "brush-less motor","automobile independent braking technology", "Microprocessors", "4G system", "Double tracking" between major hub cities in the inland provinces!

and create millions of individual CONTAINER platform movers on the extensive 80,000 km freight rail system (2010) -(and 120,000 km freight rail in 2020)

Envision this, using the advantage of the huge autombile/trucking industry, and the telco-computer industry - we canconverge and build such platform cheaply - it will move automatically, seamlessly across the inland province efficiently, cheaply!

Easily, i estimate it can increase FREIGHT movement beyond 6 billion tonnes envisaged earlier!
The post 2012, salary increases of Government employees, Revenue Merchant employees will drive consumption ininland province and benefit even coastal provinces!

cheerios!

Green DRagon
Game Master

Note: So, my idea on the sea water lakes has been thought up earlier by some China scientist! I reckon, nothing I said is really new! ha ha ha

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Post time 2010-11-29 12:58:34 |Display all floors

I estimate, in a electrified double tracks

.......you could have up to 8 million (2,000km trip daily) TEU unit moving platforms, with speeds up to 80km/hour by 2020!

It could probably move up to 30 billion tonnes, with complete automation thus lower cost, scale moves!
with 50% of the tracks occupied by moving platforms! Electricity use must be huge, but should be lowered due to massive use by the freight rail company! 300kW per TEU x 8 million units maximum capacity = 2,400 GW!

of course, running a maximum capacity is incredible, just an idea!
if US$0.025 per KW at wholesale prices from Thermal coal power plants - cost could be pretty low, US$7.5 electricity per TEU hour! Depreciation of the platform, 4G cost will be very low! So it's possible to envisage a charge of US$15 per TEU hour of travel!
Just a rough estimation!
Combining 4G telco convergence systems and modern rail control systems!

ha ha ha

cheerios!

Green DRagon
Game Master

[ Last edited by greendragon at 2010-12-4 02:07 PM ]

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Post time 2010-11-29 13:11:24 |Display all floors

Imagine, only US$0.02 cents per km.Tonne electricity cost!

ha ha ha

Just a crazy thought!

ha ha ha

cheerios!

Green DRagon
Game Master

[ Last edited by greendragon at 2010-11-30 03:40 PM ]

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Post time 2010-11-29 20:47:23 |Display all floors
maintain age.....
river age...
sea age...

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Post time 2010-11-30 14:34:17 |Display all floors

Reply #4 468259058's post

you mean "edge" over the changes in the coastal, especially ocean freight capability!

YES!
Exactly! With just 2 million, electrified platforms - moving at 60km/hr with average 1,500km - you could have 6 billion tonnes capacity on the "dedicated electrified double tracked freight rail system"!

The up coming trend is "Salary increases" for Civil Servants, Revenue Merchants in China!
It could mean, incomes of the middle 25% Working Citizens would rise from the present RMB 24,000 a year in 2010 to RMb48,000 by year 2017!

River Barge transport has disadvantage of low loads per vessel - mostly below 500T capacity!
and compares badly to my PROPOSED NEW SYSTEM, especially in OPERATIONAL STAFF/KM Tonne indicator!
I think i calculated it cost between US$0.10 to 0.20 per km tonnes on river barge system! (Pipeline for fluids is the lowest cost)

We could have pleasant river cruises, leisure industry while transferring bulk of the transportation to AUTOMATED MOVING ELECTRIFIED PLATFORMS on our new dedicated freight rail network!

cheerios!

Green DRagon
Game Master

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Post time 2010-11-30 14:37:42 |Display all floors

The system i proposed will probably compete

.......with Ocean freight in the EMPLOYEE/km Tonne freight area!

It will still lose in the FUEL USE per km tonne basis!
and what's the biggest benefit, it's can be done with existing industrial backbone in China.
ZTE has the 4G standard, China Railways has the electrified system, mostly double tracked - which now is only capable of 2 billion tonnes a year traffic (they do not indicate it in km t capacity!)

cheerios!

Green DRagon
Game Master

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Post time 2010-11-30 15:45:06 |Display all floors

For your information, and from my not very precise memory

..........China has 50,000 diesel locomotives, and up to 500,000 coaches.

BUt those coaches use labour intensive load and unload systems!
Containerized systems reduces labour, low salary work.....
and having 4G, CPU controlled platform electric movers - reduces the need for the 150,000 locomotive driver.....

Driving locomotive is boring, and in very remote work locations.....
mind you, salaries could likely shoot up to Rmb90,000 a year to keep the numbers of locomotive drivers sufficient in employment with China Railways!

New jobs will probably herald, with TECHNICIANS to maintain the huge fleet of platforms, up to 2 million to 8 million operating at various capacity or up to it's maximum if China has the electricity!

cheerios!

Green DRagon
Game Master

[ Last edited by greendragon at 2010-11-30 03:47 PM ]

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