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China must prepare for struggle for crude oil post 2030!
As we know, about 50% of the crude oil/gas is controlled by either the American Regime, it's proxy or the Russian Empire or it's proxy. China could probably obtain up to 20% of the global crude oil supply either through domestic supply or imported with free third nations!|
With the GREEN TREND, it's show positive attitude by the OBAMA administration is willing to use more sparingly this strategic fuel. Of course it's Germany, Japan - the "constraint states" which are most active.
As i pointed out earlier, The ECONOMY OF SCALE indicates that production of various industry depends on population of the state. CHINA would have to work out the same using the PROVINCEs - i reckon - . since RESOURCE needs, rate of change can take quite some time.
It's quite likely >100 million provinces, wealthier provinces, especially the Supercentres - Guangdong-Hong Kong (International Financial Centre, Medicine ingredien/equipmentst-advanced Chinese Medicine, Microelectronics, Telecommunications) , Shanghai-Jiangsu-Shangdong (Commercial Aircrafts, Domestic Financial Centre-commodity futures, Engineering), Sichuan-Yunnan (military aerospace, Advanced Diesel Engines, ReInsurance?), Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Space rockets, Energy companies, Shipbuilding, Naval Shipyards) would be doing the pinnacle industries.
Then the full industries scale provinces - Hunan, Henan, Anhui, which has 60million to nearly 100 million population. (due to weaker financial condition and consumption power)
Finally the 50% full industries scale provinces - most of the rest should be doing assembly, commodity, sub contracting to support the larger provinces and Supercentre clusters!
It's pretty unlikely for China to be able to have all provinces doing same industries......
so their natural competitive condition should be guide to what's going to happen to year 2030...
when the world would be short of the critical crude oil supplies to china!
Peaceful rise is possible when the Chinese people have reasonable expectations!