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Wow! China and Malaya is the only growth in 2009. [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2009-2-2 11:15:48 |Display all floors
Looking at the economic landscape and predictions by China's, Malaya's economic services and the World Bank analsyt.

It seems that the expected 0.5% gnp growth worldwide in 2009 will come from just 2 states, Malaya and China!

Kudos!

China and Malaya now has around 6% of the world economy.
Malaya is expected to grow 3% while China is expected to grow 8%, mostly from prime pumping actitivities aside from the usual export of the cheap commdities needed by the whole world.

Imagine 8% of US$3.5 trillion of combined Malaya and China economy is = to the 0.5% growth expect in 2009!



Something to cheer about!


and something to WORRY in the United States. If Mr. Bar-Rack "Ho-a-Saint" O-barred-by-Ma don't successfully get unemployment growth stalled, the united States will go into depression.....instead of just a recession.

THERE IS NO RECESSION in China or Malaya at the moment!


cheerios!

ha ha ha


Green DRagon
Game Master
Fu Loke Sau

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2009-2-3 10:58:20 |Display all floors

I got to figure out those data.

Let me see, China exports is equivalent only to about 30% of the GNP.

It's exports are mostly assembly or commodity products, almost an essential consumer items in the world, first to recover in a weak credit situation.(The other economies in the "Asian Trade Route States" could be between 60% to 250% of their GNP and suffered more as a consequent)

By end January, about 20 million industrial workers are retrenched. (due to the credit, lc guarantee crunch in the final quarter of 2008)This is equivalent to probably US$50 billion in lost GNP or around 1.5%

The Chinese Central Government prime pumping is supposed to be in the region of US$170 billion a year, or about 5% of GNP.It does appear the prime pumping should be able to replace the lost exports jobs.

The Guangdong Provincial online newspaper reports only 2 million of the 6 million retrenched has returned home, the rest probably found jobs in construction, infrastructure or services jobs in the city. (so unemployment would only climb marginal + construction jobs should pay higher than assembly jobs worth only Rmb8000 a year)

The only problem now is BANKING SYSTEM health, what is the npl (non performing loans), how easy for companies to get financing to run normally.Probably the Central Financial Regulatory body should set up ASSET MANAGEMENT company to quickly clean up the balance sheet of banks, of npl. (making sure that there must be collaterals that can pay of the debt...strengthening banking practises in China)

PATIENCE!

DO NOT PANIC!


Green DRagon
Game Master
Fu Loke Sau

[ Last edited by greendragon at 2009-2-3 11:01 AM ]

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2009-2-3 11:06:50 |Display all floors

I am testing whether banks in Malaya is helping the economy.

I just requested my bank to give me refinancing on on my single leveraged property, informing them of my financial status.
(i am only leveraged to about 8% of my gross assets)

it's a good test to see how cooperative banks are to CENTRAL BANKs instructions!


ha ha ha


Green DRagon
Game Master
Fu Loke Sau

[ Last edited by greendragon at 2009-2-3 11:07 AM ]

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Rank: 4

Post time 2009-2-3 21:09:05 |Display all floors
Daydream for the mainland.
The economic slowdown is bring prodigious pressure to the economy in the mainland.
The mainland can not meliorate original model of exporting, which was based upon cheap labour and wasting resource in the short term.
Meanwhile, the domestic challenge is hindering the further development of economy.
Thank you very much for your introduction bro.

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2009-2-5 11:31:16 |Display all floors

Reply #4 ljyfox's post

well, i am just adding up numbers based on what i read in newspapers.

if China + Malaya expected growth figures are true, and the world bank's figures are correct,
then the rest of the world growth = 0,
so all the growth occurs in Malaya and China!

simple arithmatic!


ha ha ha


Green DRagon
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Fu Loke Sau

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