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Thai parables for Pakatan Rakyat and Barisan Nasional. [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2008-12-31 11:03:46 |Display all floors
I think it's like a "BLESSING from heaven" that we get the stories from Thailand.

The problem in Thailand happens when the LOSER in the election in Thailand, apparently the Royalist + Elite in Bangkok decides to take power via the "back door" against the Northeastern + Rural elites.


Now, we have a unstable "revolving door" politics which hampers Thai politics.

The Elite Bangkok have one more option, and this is their control of the MILITARY and POLICE forces and the respect of the people for the THAI KING.


However, it would be better for the Bangkok elite to manipulate the government via the bureacracy and be contented with local government autonomy.

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For Malaysia, the Pakatan Rakyat lead by Mr. Anwar Ibrahim should take note of the UNGENTLEMANLY situation in Thailand.

He ought to be patient and wait for the 2013 election.
In the meantime, he has a huge workload, that is to develop the states of Patani, (Kedah, Kelantan), Penang (Hai San) and Central (Perak, Selangor) while planning to expand in the key states in Borneo, Terenganu and Negri Sembilan.


Already, the PAKATAN CHALLENGE has brought a lot of benefit to Terenganu (new SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND), Negri Sembilan (new tourism facility including apparently marina, low cost terminal airport and urban expansion in Labu) while Borneo gets help from federal government to rid of the huge ILLEGALs, mostly Bajau Phillipinos and more share of state resources like Bakun, petrochemical facilities.


So, BE PATIENT, and make politics in Malaya-Singapore-Borneo more cultured!


cheerios!




Green DRagon
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Post time 2008-12-31 11:09:53 |Display all floors

The people, PLEBIANs, are innocent....

..while they are MANIPULATED to support this and that course of action, they stand to loose a lot of their welfare by getting embroiled in unproductive politics.

Yes, we need politics, since there is about annually 10% worth of GNP to spend on discretionary items. In addition there are licences and approvals for all kind of business franchise.


Already people in PERAK, my home state, has benefits.

Imagine, the Villagers, now have ownership of property they occupy.
(and the state now can tax them as well, ha ha ha)
while in the IPOH city, capital, we have plans for a comprehensive new CBD, and new pillar industries.

In Penang, Malacca, new energy (previously unseen) in improving the city centres. They are sprucing up old shop houses, repainting, retiling and even investing in new facilities.

Incredible, or just the GAME MASTER manipulation.

TRUST YOUR GAME MASTER....

he has support of the smiley face in heaven!

ha ha ha

cheerios!


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Post time 2008-12-31 14:40:22 |Display all floors
Pakatan Rakyat faces four challenges:  

one, constraints in getting enough state development funds from the federal government run by its opponent, Barisan Nasional,  

two, constraints in getting enough seasoned officers to run and administrate the state government machinery in which are still positioned many lower-ranked officers still harboring some loyalty to their past masters in Barisan Nasional who can slow things down for the Pakatan administration;

three, internal difficulties in ironing out working arrangements between its own three component parties, the multi-racial PKR, the Chinese-based DAP and the Islam-based PAS, in which PAS would like to have an islamic state, DAP wants to retain a secular state and PKR sits in between;

four, economic difficulties especially in the electricals and electronics sector whose multinational factories are located in Penang and Selangor, two of the five states under Pakatan, which have started to retrench and slow down production in keeping with the world downturn.

These four challenges cover the full spectrum of reality in that country: race, religion, economics, politics and future development.

That Pakatan Rakyat can come up from zero to be hero of half the peoples shows one face of the democratic process in that country. However the other face - the operational issues - is also equally important, and may even be decisive in the future.

Barisan Nasional has been quietly raising the employment benefits for the civil service sector which it employs as the federal government;  numbering almost two million, they are mainly Malays and many are no doubt Umno members;  given the ballooning fiscal budget which will create yet another year of government deficit, one wonders how Umno/Barisan Nasional is going to finance such benefits.  Probably more debts will be created in the future that is not healthy for the country, in exchange for the next few years of loyalty from the civil service whose vote at the next elections will be important, in fact critical if the other two states, Sabah and Sarawak, swing towards Pakatan Rakyat.

Over forty percent of the federal government budget is drawn from oil and gas revenues. These two commodities are reducing rapidly in supply.  In three years time, the country will probably be a net oil importer.  Meanwhile, oil and gas prices have fallen.  While this will reduce price pressures on the citizens and arrest inflation, it will also reduce the federal government's funds for development.  As the country is a global trading house and thus much exposed to the US and European economies,  its economy is much exposed to the current downturn. It is trying to mitigate the situation by economic pump-priming, or infusing funds into such sectors as construction, which affects some 120 smaller industries down the line.  By swirling money within the local market, it is hoped that x will help keep y alive which will then fund z's survival..at least until the next cycle of growth begins....

All this of course will depend on a number of factors.  One of which, political stability. In this case, a fine balance of powers between the federal Barisan Nasional government led by Umno, and the the opposition Pakatan Rakyat state governments in five states. One victory by Pakatan Rakyat in the last election was to deny Barisan Nasional a two-third majority in the parliament of that country. That was a psychological boost for the opposition because it was something that Umno/BN had assumed could not be broken.  That the record has been broken means that Umno/BN now has to try and change themselves in order to be/appear more humble and caring to all the citizens, especially the Chinese, Indians and indigenous natives.  But it is caught in a dilemma; because to do so, it will run the risk of aggravating some of the more diehard Malay elements who are rebuffing the call for 'change' by bringing back the need to protect the Malay ways and privileges. There has also been some very ugly and bigoted taunts against the other citizens by this group. So the 'political stability' is based on a balance of powers, and sits somewhere on top of 'social stability' whose tectonic plates are moving beneath it.

There are other factors...education, retraining, demographics, judiciary and police systems, mobility, influence of the modern and progressive Malay, reduction in factionalism, higher worldviews,  and so on. The underlying principle is this: nation-building depends on continuous and intelligent development of the people first in order to train up the human capital properly;  any short-cut that throws some up over others when they are not yet trained completely will only jeopardize the projects they lead, encourage bad practices, and inflate costs that will increase future debts which will in turn reduce overall potential for further growth.  Depending on natural resources which cannot grow in size is just falling for the 'resource curse' which has hampered continued prosperity of those countries which have been rich in oil and minerals. In other words, the 'software' of society is important for the future, just as the 'hardware' of a country is important for the present.

It should not be lost on us that a democratic system can only work well if voters are mature in their thinking, educated enough to weigh all consequences carefully and the economy which provides for them is stable and improving constantly.   In the case of Thailand, there is a rift between the voters in the cities and those in the farms. Considering that Bangkok and its immediate surroundings contribute some fifty percent to Thailand's GDP, that's also an economic split down the centre, in addition to political divisiveness.  As we can see, the democratic process has increased divisiveness, even to the extent of closing down their major airport.  In the case of Malaysia, the democratic process is more mature but the present situation is a balance of power - whether that will lead to more stability and greater awareness will depend on how much control is exerted on the extremist elements who want to drum up Malay racist sentiments, and their acts are as desperate as how much they see Umno being threatened by its own inability to change and be more inclusive towards the other races.

Whatever the system of government, at the end of the day it is all about having a right vehicle to efficiently deliver good services to the peoples. When the peoples face many unresolved problems, the best and most caring delivery system is the one which should be supported further.  

This post is dedicated to the 22 innocent young Chinese farmers butchered in cold blood in front of their families by the Scots regiment of the British army in old Malaya.  Malaysia's own unwritten MyLai.

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Post time 2008-12-31 15:33:27 |Display all floors
the THAIS are SCREWED UP la,

just look at another RIOTS happening now

& soon bloody killings
What's on your mind now........ooooooooooooooo la la....Kind Regards

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Post time 2009-1-2 12:30:02 |Display all floors

Reply #3 markwu's post

Well, the Pakatan States could do what the PROVINCEs in China do,

Use the land sales, control of state resources, and issue of state bonds to drum up revenue!!!!
Crying out to the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT for funds is really incompetent.
However, when funds are borrowed, it has to be repaid, so the Pakatan States needs to invest in RATIONAL, PROFITABLE Developmental projects.

ha ha ha

and that's better, since it would not be useless "white elephant projects", that we often see....


Malaya-Borneo-Singapore federation is in for EXCITING TIMEs, as the BARISAN NASIONAL and PAKATAN RAKYAT works hard to prove their capability.

Imagine at 3% yield and 20% in repayments, the Pakatan States could easily raise up to M$20 billion, to be use in various projects.
With improve efficiencies, many water projects are not needed, instead investment to improve water quality is possible (up to 35% of water treated are non-revenue waste).
Then many of the Federal Government expenditure are recurrent, in hospitals, schools, army, police, administrative agencies......so would not reduce flow of revenue to the economically important CENTRAL REGION.


cheerios!


Green DRagon
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Post time 2009-1-2 12:52:07 |Display all floors
what NUTS GD talking heads
What's on your mind now........ooooooooooooooo la la....Kind Regards

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Post time 2009-1-2 13:32:20 |Display all floors

Reply #6 caringhk's post

ha ha ha

so difficult to get data on the states!

ha ha ha

shooting in the dark lar!


Yup, Just managed to get PERAK STATE budget, M$725 million.......
So, if debt repayment be 20%, can get to issue bonds worth M$145 million, at 3% rate, can issue M$5 billion?

No need to be STATE GOVERNMENT issue, we can raise up a new company, capitalized on some plot of land.
Maybe M$2.0 billion company with land provided by the state around Ipoh to be developed, and raised M$2 billion bonds....one to one ratio, not bad, with bankers knowing the state has revenues of M$725 million and potentially can support up to M$5 billion?


i am gropping in the dark here, lar, mr. royal regent caringhk....and where's my Gracie Thong!


ha ha ha


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