Views: 2224|Replies: 5

Amerikan problems with the auto industries? [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2008-11-15 16:23:51 |Display all floors
The Amerikan Regime's auto industry sells around 16-17 million vehicles annually in a good year.
In a bad year like 2008, it's supposed to be selling around 14 million vehicles annually or a 20% fall.

Apparently the sales of GM, Ford and Crystler has been hit extra hard, due to concentration on high fuel guzzling vehicles.
We can safely assume that the Amerikan Auto market is worth around US$500 million annually.
Much of the lower end vehicles, with fuel sipping and the luxury end are controlled by Japanese, Koreans and German vehicle producers.

probably as much as 1/3 of the industry.

leaving the big 3 with US$350billion market in the USA alone.
However, the big 3 also have big market share in the British Club, Europe and even China.

in fact, in the emerging markets like CHINA, BRAZIL, MEXICO, Latin America....Companies such as GM, Ford as well as VW, Fiat has big share.
While Russia, Arab nation, Africa, Greater Asean, South India are the markets of KOREA, JAPAN, FRANCE and GERMANs. (This is the market that China wants by year 2030, when we expect China to be producing 50 million vehicles, replacing Korea, Japan, France and Germay in the lower end.)


cheerios!


Green DRagon
King

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2008-11-15 16:31:30 |Display all floors

The Auto market now is interesting, (thank you Economist)....

The market is currently mostly

European Union - 500 cars/1000 persons or around 225 million vehicles
United States - crazy 900 cars/1000 person or around 270 million vehilces
Asian Trade Route - 400 cars/1000 person or around 100 million vehicles (with Japan, korea having 500cars/1000vehicles, Taiwan, HK, Singapore, Bangkok, Malaya having 300cars/1000vehicles)
British Club states - 500 cars/1000 person or around 50 million vehicles.

making it a grand total of 650 million vehicles.....

The rest of the world such as Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Arab, Persia, Latin America, Greater Asean has less significant markets probably about 100 million vehicles.


China export markets would definately be in this area!


cheerios!

Green DRagon
King

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2008-11-15 16:35:51 |Display all floors

Now, GM, Ford has reported falls in sales...

...up to 30% drops.

US$30 billion is needed every month for the cashflow of those car company.
Stripping out, less auto parts needs, etc.
Assumes to be 90%....the cashflow shortage must be US$3 billion per month.


Soon we should have news of AUTO WORKER retrenchment as those companies will be adjusting their cost....
in order to make good of the lost of the extra cashflow.....


Brace ourselves for the BAD NEWS soon!



Green DRagon
King

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2008-11-15 16:39:01 |Display all floors

That US$25 billion must be to fill the BIG HOLE in cashflow for 12 months.

So, without a BAILOUT, we would expect the Amerikan Auto industry to start LAYING OFF WORKERs......

The industry might have to lay off as many as 500,000 workers in the entire supply chain to compensate for the lost in cashflow..
and work without profit. (especially considering 2 - 3 million car sales shortfall worth US$90 bil)


Now, let's wait for that news!


Green DRagon
King

[ Last edited by greendragon at 2008-11-15 04:43 PM ]

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2008-11-15 16:47:22 |Display all floors

China's new auto market.....

...is 70% domestic. China now has 120 vehicles/1000 person.

By 2030, it could have either 300 to 400 vehicles per 1000 person.
or 450 milion to 600 million vehicles, probably dependent on crude oil, gtl, ctl, biofuel supply...
and China's trade balance.

The export market is quite assured in the emerging market and the developed world's 2nd car market.


cheerios!

Green DRagon
King

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2008-11-15 16:49:09 |Display all floors

See! High end market falls so much....

...while the lower end, middle end has small effects.

That's the China market segment.


Green Dragon
King

Use magic tools Report

You can't reply post until you log in Log in | register

BACK TO THE TOP
Contact us:Tel: (86)010-84883548, Email: blog@chinadaily.com.cn
Blog announcement:| We reserve the right, and you authorize us, to use content, including words, photos and videos, which you provide to our blog
platform, for non-profit purposes on China Daily media, comprising newspaper, website, iPad and other social media accounts.