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This post was edited by greendragon at 2014-9-23 14:26|
I was "pessimistic" when I first suggest a "arbitrary year of 2030" for China to exceed the USA economy!
1979 to 2030, 50 years!
But I'm wrong, it's like other nations - 40 years!
A. Europe and Japan took 40years - from 1945 to 1985, to recover to the ARBITRARY figure of US$10,000 per capita//the level of a developed nation.
B. ATRS - <Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Central Malaya-Singapore> also took 40 years - 1957 to 1997, to reach the same US$10,000 per capita.
the same path that USA, Latin America took to become MODERN DEVELOPED, 1900 to 1940.
Latin America stagnated, while USA steamed ahead due to DOMINANCE of US DOLLAR, which allows it to CONSUME more via MONEY MINTING.
Europe took 15 years to established the EURO, which allow BIGGER CONSUMPTION, while JAPAN as we know MINT BIG. The rest of the ATRS - has been minting furiously since 1997. <Malaya Central-Singapore effectively has US$40,000 per capita with it's 15 million local residents <the Native & Malays - like China's remote provinces/Non Han pheriphery provinces has similar condition as EASTERN Europe-North Africa which is EU hinterland>. Japan-Korea with it's 180 million people also has effectively has a US$40,000 per capita.
While the traditional KMT region <with 100 million local residents>- Pearl River Delta, Hong Kong-Macao-Taiwan-Shanghai managed US$20,000 per capita. Now the LOCAL province has BEIJING central government APPROVAL to start LOCAL STATE minting - so we expect BIG PROGRESS from the SEMI AUTONOMY system too!
China should equal USA gnp by 2018 or 2019 - same 40 years too!